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Tuesday, 19 June 2018

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Gold Prices Gain As Trump Threatens New Tariffs, Dollar Weakens -   Gold prices gained on Tuesday as intensifying U.S.-China trade tensions fuelled investor appetite for safe-haven gold. A softer dollar was also cited as supportive. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that he has ordered the U.S. Trade Representative to identify $200 billion worth of China goods for additional tariffs. Trump said in a statement that the move would be in retaliation for China’s earlier decision to raise tariffs on $50 billion in U.S. goods.  "China apparently has no intention of changing its unfair practices related to the acquisition of American intellectual property and technology. Rather than altering those practices, it is now threatening United States companies, workers, and farmers who have done nothing wrong," Trump said. "After the legal process is complete, these tariffs will go into effect if China refuses to change its practices, and also if it insists on going forward with the new tariffs that it has recently announced," he added.

Aluminium fluoride prices to stablise in near term - Aluminium fluoride prices in China are likely to stablise in the near term as major producers will jointly support prices, SMM believes. Major fluorochemical enterprises in Hengshan, Hunan province convened on Thursday June 14 and agreed to collaborate to support prices. With thin profit margins in a declining, oversupplied market, producers will stop aluminium fluoride prices from breaking the 9,000 yuan/mt level. Aluminium fluoride prices are likely to continue to fall in the longer term as major fluorochemical enterprises, such as Do-Fluoride Chemicals, resume production.

Zinc inventory rises over the weekend with inflow of imported zinc - Social inventory of zinc across Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin extended its increase over the Dragon Boat Festival long weekend due to inflow of imported zinc into Shanghai and more deliveries from smelters to Tianjin, SMM data showed. As of June 19, inventory in the three markets amounted to 157,800 mt, up 13,200 mt from Friday June 15. Inventory in Shanghai increased over 10,000 mt from Friday, while inventory in Guangdong went up slightly on limited arrivals due to maintenance at local smelters.

Oil falls on rising output, escalating China-U.S. trade spat - Oil prices fell on Tuesday on expectations that producer cartel OPEC and key ally Russia will gradually increase output after withholding supplies since 2017. The escalating trade dispute between the United States and China, in which both sides have threatened stiff tariffs on each others' key export goods, also kept markets on edge and triggered a sharp sell-off in Chinese shares. The Shanghai stock index (SSEC) slid below 3,000 points for the first time in nearly 21 months.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) together with a group of non-OPEC producers including Russia started withholding oil supplies in 2017 to prop up prices. Following a sharp increase in crude prices from their sub-$30 per barrel lows in 2016, the group on June 22 will meet in Vienna, Austria, to discuss forward policy.


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Monday, 18 June 2018

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Gold prices slumped to three-week lows as disappointed speculators liquidated long positions despite fresh trade skirmishes between the United States and China -   Gold on MCX settled down -1.17% at 31010 as disappointed speculators liquidated long positions despite fresh trade skirmishes between the United States and China. Gold deepened losses after President Donald Trump announced that the United States will implement a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion of goods from China and Beijing quickly said it would hit back with its own tariffs. There was some support in gold prices after the European Central Bank (ECB) policy announcement struck a decidedly dovish tone, as expected. The ECB also announced it would halt bond purchases and would phase out the economic stimulus by the end of the year. The central bank also said it would keep its interest rates unchanged at least through the summer of 2019. Gold discounts in India were at their widest in nine months this week as higher domestic prices tempered retail purchases, while buying in other Asian centers remained subdued amid a lack of significant momentum in global prices.

Copper prices slid on concerns over demand in China and as investors reacted to U.S. tariffs on China and a selloff in oil - Copper on MCX settled down -1.59% at 473.9 on concerns over demand in China and as investors reacted to U.S. tariffs on China and a selloff in oil. China’s industrial output, investment and retail sales all grew less than expected, offsetting upbeat trade data and suggesting further weakness ahead if Beijing sustains its crackdown on factory pollution and local government spending. China’s economy is finally starting to cool under the weight of a multi-year crackdown on riskier lending that is pushing up borrowing costs for companies and consumers, with data pointing to a broad slowdown in activity in May. While slower Chinese growth suggested lower demand, China’s output of 10 non-ferrous metals including copper, aluminium, lead, zinc and nickel rose 4.3 percent in May from a year earlier to 4.55 million tonnes. Aluminium production was up 1.5 percent at 2.79 million tonnes.

U.S. oil slumps as China threatens duty on U.S. crude imports - U.S. oil prices slumped on Monday after China threatened duties on American crude imports in an escalating trade dispute with Washington.In an escalating spat over the American trade deficit with most of its major trading partners, including China, U.S. President Donald Trump last week pushed ahead with hefty tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports, starting on July 6. China on Friday said it would retaliate by slapping duties on American export products, including crude oil. This was in response to reports that top suppliers Saudi Arabia and Russia would likely increase production. The producer cartel of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which is de-facto led by Saudi Arabia, and some allies including Russia have been withholding output since the start of 2017. They will meet in Vienna on June 22 to decide forward production policy.


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Friday, 15 June 2018

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Gold prices have been relatively quiet and is consolidating between $1,280 and $1,307 an ounce as the precious metal lacks clear direction amid a diverse set of fundamentals.
The gains were capped as prices absorbed the positive outcome from the crucial summit between the US and North Korea. Both leaders signed an agreement after historic talks held in Singapore.
Also, the US Federal Reserve rate hike of 25bps and hawkish instance of policymakers indicating two more rate hikes in 2018 did not hurt gold prices much.
Trade fears have again come to the fore as Trump’s administration has announced tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods. Trump’s policies bring about a lot of uncertainty as he embraces trade conflict and this turns investors across the globe towards gold.
As far as price trajectory is concerned, we are witnessing strong support emerging at $1280 an ounce mark at COMEX, corresponding to Rs 30,800 per 10gm at MCX.
Prices are trying to find their way up after weeks of consolidation and look set for a breakout on the higher side, where they will initially target $1,325 an ounce or Rs 31,650 per 10 gm.
Once that hurdle is cleared, it will pave the way for higher targets of close to $1,365 an ounce or Rs 32,200 per 10 gm.
On the contrary, any break below $1,280 an ounce or Rs 30,800 per 10gm at MCX will negate our long view as the trend will then turn southwards and prices will target lower levels of $1,260 an ounce or Rs 30,500 per 10gm at MCX.

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Gold Prices Pull Back From 1-month High Ahead of Tariff Announcement - Gold prices traded lower in morning European trade but remained on track to register a second consecutive weekly gain as investors waited for U.S. President Donald Trump to approve tariffs on goods on Chinese goods worth about $50 billion. Washington is scheduled on Friday to release an updated list of Chinese tariff targets that is expected to trigger an in-kind response from Beijing, according to reports. This will be the second wave of products and are part of Trump's decision to go forward with "pretty significant" tariffs, an administration official said on Thursday. The now $100 billion list will be subject to the same public comment and hearing process as the $50 billion list, so it could take 60 days or more to put into effect, three sources familiar with the Trump administration's thinking on tariff plans told Reuters. Gold is generally sought out as a safe haven store of value in times of political and economic uncertainty and the precious metal has risen approximately 0.3% this week, despite a strong week for the dollar, which is up 1.5% against major rivals. A stronger greenback makes the dollar-denominated metal more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.

Oil Prices Modestly Lower as Traders Look Ahead at Potential Supply Hike - Oil prices inched down on Friday after Saudi Arabia and Russia indicated that OPEC could vote to increase oil production at its meeting next week. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia countries is set to meet in Vienna on June 22 and is expected to decide whether or not to increase supply by one million barrels per day, as OPEC faces losses from Venezuela and Iran. Total production of OPEC countries rose by 35,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May to 31.87 million bpd, according to its monthly report. OPEC has been cutting crude output by 1.8 million bpd to prop up oil prices. The pact began in January 2017 and is set to expire at the end of 2018. After a meeting with the Saudi Arabia energy minister on Thursday, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that both of the countries agreed that production levels should increase. “We in general support this ... but specifics we will discuss with the ministers in a week,” Novak said. The two countries are the biggest producers of oil in OPEC. Meanwhile traders are looking ahead to the weekingly Baker Hughes oil rig count for any indication of increasing U.S. supply.


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Thursday, 14 June 2018

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Gold Prices Rise As Dollar Pares Gains -   Gold prices were higher on Thursday, rising above the $1,300 level as the dollar lost the momentum from a decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Gold prices are denominated in U.S. dollars, so the movement of the U.S. dollar index impacts the gold price. On Thursday, the U.S. dollar index that measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies was down 0.03% to 93.53, giving up gains despite a promising outlook for the U.S. economy. The Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points to a range of 1.75% to 2% and hinted at two more rate hikes later in the year, instead of only one previously. This would mean four rate hikes this year. Gold investors continued to eye the rate hike decision for signs that the dollar go on an upswing. A firmer U.S. dollar makes dollar-denominated assets such as gold more expensive for foreign buyers, and vice versa.

Operating rate at secondary lead smelters down 3.98 percentage points in May - The operating rate across China's secondary lead smelters stood at 59.9% in May, down 3.98 percentage points from April, but up 24.6 percentage points from last year, SMM surveyed.  Stricter environmental probes by the central government from May accounted for the month on month decline. Most unlicensed small smelters were ordered to shut, and some qualified, large smelters saw their output affected by environmental cuts, SMM learned.  China’s output of secondary lead registered 100,900 mt in May, down 6,700 mt from April and up 41,400 mt from last year, SMM data showed. Operating rates across secondary lead smelters in June is likely to remain flat from May as environmental inspections continue, SMM expects.

Aluminium inventory dips for six straight weeks on fewer deliveries - China's inventory of primary aluminium, including SHFE warrants, shrank 53,000 mt from last Thursday to stand at 1.92 million mt as of Thursday June 14, SMM data showed. Despite torrential downpours in Guangdong province during last weekend, overall inventory declined on the week due to fewer deliveries to warehouses in northwest China. The drop marked a sixth consecutive week of decline.

Oil prices fall as U.S. crude production hits another record - Oil prices eased on Thursday, dragged down by rising output, although strong demand and a drop in U.S. fuel inventories provided the market with some support.Prices were pulled down by another rise in U.S. oil production , which hit a weekly record of 10.9 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. U.S. crude output has risen by almost 30 percent in the last two years, and it is now close to top global producer Russia, which produced 11.1 million bpd overall in the first two weeks of June. But the rising output came amid strong demand, which traders said prevented crude prices from falling further. U.S. consumption of gasoline in the United States rose to an historic high of 9.88 million bpd last week, according to the EIA.


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Wednesday, 13 June 2018

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Gold Prices Fall Below $1,300 as Focus Shifts to Fed -   Gold prices fell below the psychologically important $1,300 level as the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting got underway amid investor expectations the U.S. central bank will hike rates on Wednesday. The weakness in gold prices comes a day ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. But with most market participants expecting the Fed to raise rates Wednesday, the Fed's update on monetary policy will likely warrant added attention. Following the Fed's March meeting, most policymakers expected the central bank to hike rates three times in 2018 but a string of bullish data has renewed expectations for a fourth rate hike. Wells Fargo said it expects core PCE - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation – to reach the Fed's 2% target in the third quarter of year, paving the way for the U.S. central bank to hike rates on Wednesday and twice more in 2018.

Copper dropped as positive sentiment was tempered by renewed fears of a global trade war amid a lack of consensus at the G7 summit in Canada - Copper on MCX settled down -0.08% at 484.60 on long liquidation as the dollar strengthened and BHP responded to a proposal from unionised workers at its Escondida copper mine in Chile. A stronger greenback makes dollardenominated metals more expensive for holders of other currencies and can weigh on prices. Global miner BHP, said it had responded to the latest contract proposal from unionized workers at its Escondida copper mine in Chile, triggering a new round of talks that could last a month or more. Hopes were raised about a settlement at Escondida after unionized workers at BHP’s Spence copper mine in northern Chile agreed on Monday to a new collective labour contract. Last night US dollar index closed at 93.8 overnight, up 0.26%. The index rose over 0.3% at one point after the “truly historic” US-North Korea Summit. Base metals fell across the board overnight. Today traders will be eyeing on the key factors which include the US PPI in May. While trades will remain vulnerable ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, when it is widely expected to raise interest rates in what would be its second rate hike this year. Expectations for higher interest rates tend to be bearish for metals, which struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates rise.

Oil Prices Lower Amid Rising Supplies In U.S. - Oil prices were lower on Wednesday as supplies in the U.S. rose, while expectations that voluntary production cuts led by the producer cartel OPEC could be loosened were also cited as headwind.The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday that crude oil inventories jumped 830,000 barrels last week to 433.7 million, as U.S. crude production surged 28% in the last two years to a record 10.8 million barrels per day. Output in Russia, another top producer, also rose above 11 million barrels per day, according to reports. Looking ahead, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Official is scheduled to publish U.S. production and inventory data later in the day.

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