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Wednesday, 21 June 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Oil prices climb off 10-month lows as U.S. stockpiles drop

Oil prices rose on Thursday for the first time in three days after U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles fell, but investors are looking for more signs that output cuts by OPEC and some other producers are ending a three-year glut.The market largely shrugged off comments overnight from Iran's oil minister that members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are considering deeper cuts in production.Brent crude futures LCOc1 were 9 cents, or 0.2 percent higher, at $44.91 a barrel at 0018 GMT, after falling 2.6 percent in the previous session to their lowest since August last year.U.S. crude futures CLc1 were 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, higher at $42.65 a barrel. On Wednesday, they settled down at $42.53, after touching their lowest intraday level since August 2016.

crude has dropped around 20 percent, with only brief rallies, completely erasing gains at the end of the year in the wake of the initial OPEC-led production cut.OPEC and other producers agreed to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day from January for six months, subsequently extended for a further nine months.With production rising in Nigeria and Libya, countries exempt from the deal, and output surging in the United States, which was not part of the agreement, the bulls have thrown in the towel.And a bigger than expected cut in U.S. crude stockpiles reported overnight is barely shifting the dial.Crude inventories USOILC=ECI fell 2.5 million barrels in the week to June 16, surpassing analysts' expectations for a decrease of 2.1 million barrels, as imports USOICI=ECI rose marginally by 56,000 barrels per day, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

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Tuesday, 20 June 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Dollar advance stalls as oil slides, pound struggles near 2-month low

The dollar pulled back from one-month highs against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as tumbling oil prices pushed down U.S. yields, while the pound wobbled after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney shot down hopes of an interest rate hike.

The dollar index against a group of major currencies was 0.05 percent lower at 97.699 .DXY .

It had hit a one-month high of 97.871 on Tuesday as expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve, which hiked interest rates last week, would tighten policy again in 2017.
The greenback's advance, however, stalled as the dollar-supportive bounce in U.S. Treasury yields was cut short overnight.

Following a big drop in oil prices, the 10-year Treasury note yield US10YT=RR fell sharply on Tuesday, reversing a large portion of the gains it made after the Fed left the door open for another rate increase this year.

"Lower crude prices weaken inflationary pressures and in turn arrest the rise in U.S. yields," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior FX strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.

"U.S. inflation indicators have not been strong to start with. Now that oil is falling, it could add further pressure to the dollar by weakening sentiment towards the U.S. energy sector."

The euro was steady at $1.1137 EUR= after retreating to a three-week low of $1.1119 overnight.
The dollar was down 0.2 percent at 111.220 yen JPY= , off a near one-month peak of 111.790 touched on Tuesday.

"Sentiment towards the dollar may not be great, but participants don't have strong motivation to buy the yen or euro either given the low-yield policies of the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank,"

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Monday, 19 June 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Oil prices edge up from seven-month low, but glut keeps dragging

Oil prices inched up from seven-month lows in Asian trading on Tuesday, but gains were limited as investors focused on persistent signs of rising supply that are undermining attempts by OPEC and other producers to support prices.Brent LCOc1 futures were up 13 cents at $47.04 at 0034 GMT. On Monday, they fell 46 cents, or 1 percent, to settle at $46.91 a barrel.

That was their lowest since Nov. 29, the day before the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers agreed to cut output for six months from January.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 futures were up 13 cents at $44.33 a barrel.
They declined 54 cents, or 1.2 percent in the previous session, to settle at $44.20 per barrel, the lowest close since Nov. 14. The July contract will expire on Tuesday and August will become the front month.

Both benchmarks are down around 15 percent since late May, when OPEC, Russia and other producers extended by nine months the cut in output by 1.8 million barrels per day (mb/d).
"Recent data points are not encouraging," Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) said in a research note. "Identifiable oil inventories - both crude and product in the OECD, China and selected other non-

OECD countries - increased at a rate of (about) 1.0 mb/d in 1Q."OPEC supplies jumped in May as output recovered in Libya and Nigeria, two countries exempt from the production cut agreement.

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Sunday, 18 June 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Oil prices fall on further rise in US drilling, signs of slowing demand

Oil prices fell early on Monday, weighed down by high supplies despite an OPEC-led initiative to cut production to tighten the market.Signs of faltering demand stoked weak sentiment, prompting price levels comparable to when the output cuts were first announced late last year.Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 11 cents, or 0.23 percent, at $47.26 per barrel at 0035 GMT.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were down 11 cents, or 0.25 percent, at $44.63 per barrel.

Prices for both benchmarks are down by almost 13 percent since late May, when producers led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) extended their pledge to cut production by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by an extra nine months until the end of the first quarter of 2018.

Traders said that the main factor driving the low prices was a steady rise in U.S. production undermining the OPEC-led effort to tighten the market.

"The U.S. oil rig count continued to rise, up by 6 last week ... Since its trough on May 27, 2016, producers have added 431 oil rigs," Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said late on Friday. U.S. bank said that if the rig count stayed at current levels, U.S. oil production would increase by 770,000 barrels per day between the fourth quarter of last year and the same quarter this year in the shale oil fields of the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara.Supplies from within OPEC and other countries officially participating in the cuts, like Russia, also remain high as some countries have not fully complied with their pledges. are also indicators that demand growth in Asia, the world's biggest oil consuming region, is stalling.

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Friday, 16 June 2017

Best Commodity Tips,
Oil prices rebounded Friday after hitting their lowest settlement of 2017, but registered their fourth weekly loss in a row—the longest such streak of declines in nearly two years.

Data earlier in the week showing a rise in U.S. production and weak domestic gasoline demand fed concerns that the global energy market remains awash in surplus oil, keeping pressure on prices.

On Thursday, WTI settled at its lowest since Nov. 14, as “bearish investors exploited the unexpectedly large build in gasoline inventories to instigate renewed rounds of selling,” said Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM, in email commentary.

“The King Dollar’s return weighed heavily on the commodity by making it more expensive for buyers utilizing other currencies,”

With “oil displaying repeated signs of weakness,” despite the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some non-OPEC producers cutting production by 1.8 million barrels a day, and with U.S. shale producers “pumping incessantly, there is a threat of price weakness becoming a recurrent theme,”

The output cuts, which have been extended through March of next year, have so far failed to bring global inventories down to OPEC’s targeted five-year average.

Earlier this week, the International Energy Agency offered a grim forecast that a gusher of new supplies from the U.S. stands to keep the market well-flushed for some time.

Petroleum-product prices on Nymex ended higher Friday. July gasoline RBN7, +1.29%  was rose 1.9 cents, or 1.3%, at $1.455 a gallon—though finishing down about 3.1% on the week, and July heating oil HON7, +0.82%  added 1.2 cents, or 0.9%, to $1.427 a gallon, paring its weekly loss to about 0.3%.

July natural gas NGN17, -0.85%  shed 1.9 cents, or 0.6%, to $3.037 per million British thermal units. It lost less than 0.1% for the week.

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Thursday, 15 June 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Oil sits near half-year lows as global supply overhang weighs

Oil prices dipped early on Friday and were not far off six-months lows as an ongoing supply overhang weighed on markets despite an OPEC-led effort to cut production and prop up prices.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 6 cents, or 0.1 percent, at $46.86 per barrel at 0045 GMT.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were down 8 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $44.38 per barrel.

Prices for both benchmarks are down by more than 13 percent since late May, when producers led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) extended a pledge to cut production by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by an extra nine months until the end of the first quarter of 2018.

The price falls are due to ongoing high supplies despite the pledge to cut from within OPEC, and also because of rising output from the United States. production in the U.S. was ... higher (and) oil tanker tracker data also suggests OPEC shipments remain strong,"

High exports and production from other countries, including Russia and the United States, are also contributing to the ongoing glut.

Top producer Russia, not an OPEC-member but participating in the deal, is expected to export 61.2 million tonnes of oil in the third quarter (around 5 million bpd), against 60.5 million tonnes in the second quarter, via pipelines, according to industry sources and Reuters calculations. in Russia's tanker shipments and its total exports are likely above 9 million bpd.

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Wednesday, 14 June 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Oil prices struggle on doubts OPEC can rein in oversupply

Oil prices wallowed near their lowest levels in seven months early on Thursday, hurt by high global inventories and doubts over OPEC's ability to implement production cuts.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 7 cents or 0.2 percent at $46.93 per barrel at 0053 GMT, after slumping nearly 4 percent in the previous session.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were down 12 cents or 0.3 percent at at $44.61 per barrel.

Crude futures benchmarks are sitting near their lowest levels since late November last year when production cuts led by the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) were first announced.

Brent and WTI are down over 12 percent since their opens on May 25, when the agreement to cut was extended to the end of the first quarter next year, instead of expiring this month as initially planned.

"OPEC 2017 year-to-date exports are only down by 0.3 million barrels per day (bpd) from the October 2016 baseline," analysts at AB Bernstein said in a note to clients.
OPEC's pledge was to cut some 1.2 million bpd, while other producers including Russia would bring the total reduction to almost 1.8 million bpd.

However, some OPEC members including Nigeria and Libya have been exempt from cutting, and their rising output undermines efforts led by Saudi Arabia.

"Production growth in Libya and Nigeria and continued rig additions in U.S. are complicating the picture, raising doubts on OPEC's strategy. For OECD inventories to return to the normalized levels, OPEC needs to drain by 34 million barrels a month or 1 million barrels for the next 10 months. This looks challenging," AB Bernstein said.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said this week that oil supplies next year would still outpace demand despite consumption hitting 100 million bpd for the first time. COLUMN-OPEC and U.S. shale drillers are on collision course:

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