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Thursday, 15 November 2018



BULLION:-

Gold prices rose on Friday as investors sought safe haven assets amid fears of a chaotic departure for Britain from the European Union. Spot gold was up 0.2 percent at $1,214.77 per ounce at the time of writing, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.1 percent to $1,215.6 per ounce. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, inched up about 0.1 percent. Prime Minister Theresa May vowed to fight for her draft divorce deal with the EU on Thursday after the resignation of her Brexit secretary and other ministers put her strategy and her job in peril. A "really strong" U.S. economy is likely to continue growing, but softness in housing and high levels of corporate debt have caught the Federal Reserve's eye, Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday. U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in October as purchases of motor vehicles and building materials surged, but data for the prior two months was revised lower and the underlying trend suggested that consumer spending was probably slowing down.  

METALS:-

Shanghai zinc jumped more than 2.5 percent to the highest in more than two weeks on Thursday amid sliding stockpiles in London and signs that China may be taking steps to de-escalate its trade dispute with the United States. China has delivered a written response to U.S. demands for wide-ranging trade reforms ahead of expected talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of a G20 summit in Argentina later this month. The most-traded January zinc contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose as much as 3.3 percent to 21,645 yuan a tonne; it's loftiest since Oct. 30. LME zinc stocks fell to a decade-low of 125,400 tonnes, data showed, while on-warrant or available stocks hit their lowest since February. The global zinc market deficit narrowed to 54,700 tonnes in September from a revised deficit of 81,800 tonnes in August, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group showed on Wednesday.  

ENERGY:-


Volatile natural gas plummeted 18 percent on Thursday, reversing nearly all of Wednesday's sharp gains, after U.S. inventories showed a slight increase in supply. Selling was already underway even before the report from the Energy Information Administration showed natural gas supplies rose by 39 billion cubic feet. Total gas in storage now stands at 3.247 trillion cubic feet, but is still 15 percent below the 5-year average and 14 percent below last year. Gas supply is at a 15-year low for this time of year; at the same time, cold weather has driven strong early heating demand. Natural gas prices surged more than 18 percent Wednesday, as panicky buyers reacted to new weather reports showing a colder forecast amid concerns the U.S. has too little gas in storage. Futures were trading at about $3.98 per mmbtu on Thursday, after reaching $4.83 the day earlier. Wednesday's move higher set the stage for the big decline, as analysts said much of the buying appeared to be traders who were caught on the wrong side of the trade and forced to react to a short squeeze. 



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Wednesday, 14 November 2018



BULLION:-

Gold prices held steady on Thursday after gaining nearly 1 percent on Wednesday, helped by a slight retreat in the dollar following a rally and as some investors covered their short positions after the metal held the key $1,200 level. Spot gold was up 1 percent at $1,210.60 per ounce. Prices had slipped to their lowest since Oct. 11 at $1,195.90 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures settled up $8.70, or 0.72 percent, at $1,210.10. An index that tracks the dollar versus a basket of six major currencies was down 0.2 percent after hitting a 16-month high on Monday. Factors including increased buying by central banks, the return of interest amongst exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors and seasonal demand for physical gold are acting as a cushion to the downside. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed ETF, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), remained near their highest level in more than two months. Bullion has fallen about 11 percent from a peak in April as investors instead flocked to the dollar, with U.S.- China trade friction unfolding against a background of higher U.S. interest rates.  

METALS:-

London copper and aluminium prices rose slightly along with other metals on Thursday, with investors looking to potential stimulus spending in China after weak retail and credit growth data in October. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange had risen 0.4 percent to $6,113 a tonne at the time of writing, while the most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained 0.4 percent to 49,180 yuan ($7,076) a tonne. Prices of aluminium, zinc, lead and tin also increased. The outlook for copper demand in the mid to long term remains healthy despite current trade friction between China and the United States as a renewable energy revolution will require vast amounts of the metal, industry executives said. Global miner Rio Tinto is among parties making a final offer for a minority stake in Teck Resources Ltd's Quebrada Blanca copper mine expansion in northern Chile, a development worth $4.8 billion, two sources close to the matter said. China, the leading holder of international deep sea exploration licences, has increased its lead in the race for alternative sources of battery minerals by taking samples from cobalt-bearing mountains deep in the Pacific.  

ENERGY:-

Natural gas prices shot through the roof on Wednesday as weather forecasts called for an increasingly cold winter in what is looking like a tightly supplied market. Natural gas spot prices had climbed by more than 17 percent to reach $4.812-a price that traders haven't seen since Fall 2014. The natural gas futures market had an exceptionally volatile trading morning, with prices surging about 35 percent since the beginning of the month, likely stemming from traders rushing to cover short positions as panic set in. The 10- to 15-day weather forecast that has the market in a jumble calls for exceptionally cold weather over the next six to fifteen days-the trend showing ever increasing cold temperatures. The cold snap is just one factor pushing prices upward. Inventories for natural gas are also low for this time of year, data from the EIA showed last week. Total natural gas stocks as of 11/02 were 3,208 Bcf-a 15.3% decline from this week a year ago, and 16.2% below the five-year average. Updated storage data is scheduled to be released today at 09.00 PM IST.  



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Monday, 12 November 2018


BULLION:-

COMEX gold futures steadied near multi week lows on Tuesday which were made during previous session. Monday session was the third straight day of losses for the yellow metal, which has lost about $20, or 1.5% since its last positive settlement on Nov 7. In Monday's session, worries over Brexit negotiations dealt a fresh blow to the sterling, pushing up the greenback, which is a contrarian bet to the dollar. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.7%. Monday's bottom and settlement also left the December contract with a precariously small buffer to protect the $1,200 support, which had been the market's bedrock since September. The dollar rallied last week after strong U.S. producer price index data on Friday became an endorsement for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in December. The Fed has already hiked rates three times this year and is determined to stay ahead of the inflationary curve with more increases in 2019 after the robust growth seen lately in the US economy.  
METALS:-

Nickel on Tuesday stays near its 11-month lows on worries about stainless steel. Increasing nickel pig iron production and rising Shanghai nickel inventory also pointed to further nickel weakness in the short term, said analyst Helen Lau of Argonaut Securities. The dollar climbed to a 16- month high as investors positioned for a U.S. interest rate rise next month and concern about political risks in Europe put pressure on the euro and the pound. A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated metals more expensive for buyers paying in other currencies. Shanghai rebar steel prices tumbled nearly 4 percent to the lowest since late July, pressured by worries over slowing demand in top consumer China over the seasonally weak winter period. That weighed on zinc, mainly used in galvanised steel, with the LME price down 1.9 percent at $2,474.50 a tonne. LME on warrant aluminium stocks , those not earmarked for delivery, rose 5,550 tonnes to 745,750, data showed on Monday. They have climbed 22 percent over the past month.  

ENERGY:-


WTI oil prices fell by more than 1 percent on Tuesday, with Brent crude sliding below $70 and WTI below $60 per barrel, after U.S. President Donald Trump put pressure on OPEC not to cut supply to prop up the market. Both oil price benchmarks have shed more than 20 percent in value since early October. Sky-high production in the U.S., coupled with incremental barrels coming from Saudi Arabia and Russia is starting to impact oil market balances. As such, crude oil inventories are starting to increase once again. US crude oil production , already at a record 11.6 million barrels per day (bpd), to break through 12 million bpd in 2019, making the United States "energy independent". op crude exporter Saudi Arabia has watched with alarm how supply is starting to outpace consumption, fearing a repeat of 2014's price crash. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Monday the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed there was a need to cut oil supply next year by around 1 million bpd from October levels to prevent oversupply. U.S. President Donald Trump, however, did not like the rhetoric coming from his political ally in Saudi Arabia. "Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil prices should be much lower based on supply!" Trump said in a Twitter post on Monday.  


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BULLION:-

Gold prices were steady on Monday, having dipped to a one-month low in the previous session after the U.S. dollar firmed on the Federal Reserve’s plans to gradually keep tightening borrowing costs. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, inched up 0.1 percent. The greenback built on last week’s gains and rose towards a 16-month high. Asian shares fell on Monday, extending weakness in global equity markets at the end of last week as soft Chinese economic data and falling oil prices rekindled anxiety about the outlook for world growth. U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in October and at their fastest pace in six years but measures of underlying price pressure cooled, bolstering the view that the U.S. central bank is not facing resurgence in inflation. Former British foreign minister Boris Johnson called again on Sunday for Prime Minister Theresa May to change course on Brexit, accusing her of forcing through a deal to keep the country locked in the EU’s customs union in a “total surrender”. Italy’s economy minister is looking to revise down the budget’s growth forecast for next year to try to reach a deal with the European Commission over fiscal policy, a government source said on Sunday.  

METALS:-

Nickel prices on both the London and Shanghai exchanges fell on Monday to near 11-month lows due to pressure from a strong U.S. dollar and concerns over economic growth in China. The dollar built on last week’s gains and rose towards a 16-month high on Monday as traders expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep tightening monetary policy. The stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated metals more expensive for buyers paying in other currencies. Macroeconomic concerns such as U.S.-China trade tensions have been weighing on industrial metals. Nickel is used mainly in steelmaking. China’s northern province of Hebei, China’s top steel producer, asked 10 major cities and Xiongan new district in the region to issue an orange smog alert, the local government said in a statement on Monday. Under an orange alert, the second-highest warning behind red in China’s four-tier system, steel mills must halve their output, while coal-fired power utilities must operate at “minimum” levels.  

ENERGY:-


Oil prices rose on Monday after top exporter Saudi Arabia announced a cut in supply for December, seen as a measure to halt a market slump that had seen a crude decline by 20 per cent since early October. Saudi Arabia plans to reduce oil supply to world markets by 0.5 million barrels per day in December, its energy minister said on Sunday, as the Opec power faces uncertain prospects in its attempts to persuade other producers to agree a coordinated output cut. Khalid al-Falih told reporters that Saudi Aramco's customer crude oil nominations would fall by 500,000 bpd in December versus November due to seasonal lower demand. The cut represents a reduction in global oil supply of about 0.5%. The announcement came after crude prices declined by around 20 per cent over a month, as supply has surged, especially by the top-three producers USA, Russia and Saudi Arabia. A big concern for Saudi Arabia and other traditional producers from the Middle East dominated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) is the surge in US output. US energy firms last week added 12 oil rigs in the week to Nov. 9 looking for new reserves, bringing the total count to 886, the highest level since March 2015, Baker Hughes energy services firm said on Friday.  


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Monday, 5 November 2018


BULLION:- Gold prices traded on flat note on Tuesday after inching lower on Monday as investors took some profits following a recent rally, but the metal traded within a narrow range as caution set in ahead of the U.S. congressional elections. Spot gold was down 0.1 percent at $1,230.76 per ounce at the time of writing, trading in an $8 range.U.S. gold futures settled down $1, or 0.1 percent, at $1,232.30. Investors will keep a close eye on the U.S. midterm elections which may fuel interest in bullion as a hedge against risk if the result sparks volatility in the wider financial markets.
Opinion polls show strong chances that the Democratic Party may win control of the House of Representatives in the Nov. 6 midterm elections. Bullion traders also awaited this week’s Federal Reserve meeting to gauge the outlook for U.S. monetary policy. Speculators raised their net short
position in gold to a three-week high in the week ended Oct. 30, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Also, highlighting investors’ bearish sentiment toward bullion were holdings of the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), which fell 0.23 percent to 759.06 tonnes on Friday.


ENERGY:- The United States snapped sanctions back in place on Monday to choke Iran’s oil and shipping industries, while temporarily allowing top customers such as China and India to keep buying crude from the Islamic Republic. Having abandoned a 2015 Iran nuclear deal, U.S President Donald Trump is trying to cripple Iran’s oil-dependent economy and force Tehran to quash not only its nuclear ambitions and ballistic missile program but also support for militant proxies in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and other parts of the Middle East. Washington has pledged to eventually halt all purchases of crude oil from Iran globally but for now, it said eight countries - China, India, South Korea, Japan, Italy, Greece, Taiwan, and Turkey - can continue imports without penalty. Crude exports contribute one-third of Iran’s government revenues. Oil prices in October rallied above $85 per barrel on fears of a steep decline in Iranian exports. Prices have fallen since then on expectations that some buyers would receive exemptions and as supply from other big producers have increased. Both oil benchmarks have slid more than 15 percent since hitting four-year highs in early October. Hedge funds have cut bullish bets on crude to a one-year low. 


BASE METAL:- Copper led base metals lower on Monday as investors took profits after the metal used in power and construction touched a two-week high on Friday. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange ended down 1.5 percent at $6,191.50 a tonne, having climbed on Friday to its highest since Oct. 22 at $6,315. Copper soared on Friday on signs that trade tensions were easing after optimistic comments from the United States and China. Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday added to that positivity by promising to lower tariffs, broaden market access and import
more from overseas, but his comments failed to impress the market. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that China has hurt the United States economically but was ready to make a deal on trade and him is open to a fair agreement. China’s services sector chalked up its slowest growth
in more than a year last month as new orders dried up, a private survey showed, suggesting a further loss in economic momentum as 2018 draws to a close. 

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 BULLION : - 

Gold prices were steady in early Asian trade on Monday as the dollar eased, while investors are tuned in to the U.S. congressional elections on Tuesday. Spot gold was steady at $1,232.86 per ounce, at the time of writing. U.S. gold future was up 0.1 percent at $1,234.6 per ounce. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.1 percent. Investors are now focused on the U.S.congressional elections on Nov. 6, which will determine whether the Republican or Democratic party controls Congress, with some predicting increased market volatility on the outcome. U.S. job growth rebounded sharply in October and wages recorded their largest annual gain in 9-1/2 years, pointing to further labor market tightening that could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in December. British Prime Minister Theresa May's office has dismissed as "speculation" a newspaper report that suggests an all-UK customs deal will be written into the legally binding agreement governing Britain's withdrawal from the EU. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.23 percent to 759.06 tonnes on Friday from 760.82 tonnes on Thursday. Hedge funds and money managers raised their net short position in gold by 18,723 contracts to 45,622 contracts, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data on Friday. This was the highest in three weeks.

ENERGY:-

Oil prices dipped on Monday as the start to U.S. sanctions against Iran's fuel exports was softened by waivers that will allow some countries to still import Iranian crude, at least temporarily. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 27 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $62.87 a barrel. Brent has lost more than 16 percent in value since early October, while WTI has declined by more than 18 percent since then. Prices have been coming under pressure since it became clear that Washington was allowing several countries to continue importing crude from Iran despite the sanctions, which officially started on Monday. The United States said on Friday it will temporarily allow eight importers to keep buying Iranian oil when it re-imposes sanctions, aimed at forcing Iran to curb its nuclear, missile and regional activities. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who announced the decision, did not name the eight, which he referred to as "jurisdictions," a term that might include importers such as Taiwan which the United States does not regard as a country. China, India, South Korea, Turkey, Italy, the United Arab Emirates and Japan have been the top importers of Iran's oil, while Taiwan occasionally buys cargoes of Iranian crude but is not a major buyer. Oil markets have already adjusted to the Iran sanctions, gradually dialing back imports in preparations.

 BASE METAL:- 

London copper took a breather on Monday after hitting a two-week peak in the previous session following comments by the U.S. president that the United States may be approaching a trade deal with China. London Metal Exchange copper slipped by half a percent to $6,253 a tonne at the time of writing, paring 3.2 percent gains on Friday when prices reached the highest in two weeks at $6,315 a tonne. Copper has traded in a $5,950-$6,400 range since late September as worries of an escalating trade war have overshadowed signs of a burgeoning shortage of the metal. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper narrowed earlier gains and were up 1.2 percent at 49,970 yuan ($7,235.42) a tonne. Other LME metals weremore or less flat except for volatile nickel that shed 1.1 percent, erasing Friday's gains. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he will likely make a deal with China on trade, adding that a lot of progress has been made to resolve the two countries' differences but warned that he still may impose more tariffs on Chinese goods.


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Thursday, 1 November 2018


BULLION:-

Gold prices were steady in early Asian trade on Friday, after rising about 1.5 percent in the previous session, while the dollar inched up ahead of the U.S. payrolls data due later in the day. According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls probably rebounded by 190,000 jobs in October after Florence depressed restaurant and retail payrolls in September. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping both expressed optimism on Thursday about resolving their bitter trade disputes ahead of a high-stakes meeting planned for the two leaders at the end of November in Argentina. Trump increased economic pressure on Venezuela's leftist President Nicolas Maduro on Thursday with new sanctions aimed at disrupting the South American country's gold exports.

METALS:-

LME copper closed near day-highs of $6,143/mt overnight as the US dollar index came off from multi-month highs on weak-than-expected economic data and a rebound in the pound. SHFE copper also closed near session-highs overnight, which returned it to the 60-day moving average. In the physical market, cash flow issues prompted sellers to offload cargoes while spot premiums rose from previous declines in prices of futures. Trades improved as traders purchased on demand. LME copper is likely to trade at $6,040-6,130/mt with SHFE copper at 49,880-49,400 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen up to 50 yuan/mt. London Nickel was the best performer among LME and SHFE base metals overnight. LME nickel is likely to hover around $11,700/mt today with the SHFE 1901 contract at 96,500-98,500 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 97,500-106,000 yuan/mt.

ENERGY:-

Oil prices fell on Friday as surging output by the world's three largest producers outweighed supply concerns from the start of U.S. sanctions next week against Iran's petroleum exports. Crude oil prices took a severe hit as investors were unnerved on rising global inventories and record high output in 2018," said Benjamin Lu of brokerage Phillip Futures. Brent has fallen by over 12 percent since the beginning of October, while WTI has lost more than 13 percent in value. The downward pressure on oil is also visible in the physical market, where top exporter Saudi Arabia is expected to cut crude prices for December cargoes amid higher supply and a glut in refined products that has eroded refinery profits. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) boosted oil production in October to 33.31 million barrels per day (bpd), a Reuters survey found this week.



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