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Sunday, 16 June 2019




BULLION - Gold prices rose by 0.4 percent last week over expectation of rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Slowdown in the global growth amid weakening of the US economy might pressurize the FED to trim the rates which weighed on the US Dollar & in turn support Gold prices. Markets will have a keen watch on the next meeting of the US FED policymakers which is to be held on June 18-19, 2019. U.S. & Mexico struck a deal last week, side stepping a possible trade war and averting chances of an economic slowdown capped the gains for Gold. However, escalating trade tension between U.S. & China coupled with rising global uncertainties continues raise worries over the global economic growth and push investors to take shelter under the bullion metal. China stated that it wont come under any pressure and enter in to a contract forced by U.S. which further worsened the trade situation between the super power nations.

ENERGY-Crude dipped by 3.0 percent last week as escalating tension between US & China and surge in US Crude inventory levels weighed on the prices. As per reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Crude inventories surged by 2.2 million barrels last week against the markets expectation of a decline of over 480,000 barrels. Moreover, the biggest consumer of Crude, China, imported crude around 40.23 million tonnes in May 2019 down from an all-time high of 43.73 million tonnes in April 2019. The fall in imports came following the drop in Iranian imports caused by U.S. sanctions and refinery maintenance coupled with falling domestic demand. The downtrend was limited after fresh supply concerns rose from the Middle East as two oil tankers were attacked in the gulf of Oman. This is the second attack on one of the worlds key shipping routes. Meanwhile, China's officials stated that Washingtons attempt to force Beijing into a trade deal wont be successful; they wont come under any pressure from the United States which further escalated trade tension.

BASE METAL - Last week, base metals on the LME traded positive except for Zinc which declined by 0.2 percent. Rising demand for Alloy in the market led to an uptrend in the prices of Nickel which was the highest gainer amongst the pack last week. However, trade tension between US and China continues to hamper the global demand prospects for Industrial metals. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinas President Xi Jinping will meet at the G20 summit in Osaka on 28-29 June, 2019. After the meeting U.S. President will decide whether to impose duties on the remaining Chinese goods. However, U.S. President Trump added that he had a feeling that a U.S.-China trade deal could be reached. But if there is no deal then he the situation might worsen. China's officials stated that Washingtons attempt to force Beijing into a trade deal wont be successful; they wont come under any pressure from the US.
 

Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com
 

Thursday, 13 June 2019




BULLION - Gold prices rose in the previous session as President Donald Trump admitted to being the current obstacle to a trade deal with China as he mentioned in an interview that Its me right now thats holding up the deal, he mentioned to the reporters at the White House that, he needed Beijing to agree to four or five major points, without specifying what they were, these remarks dampened risk appetite, pushing global equities lower and benefiting the safe-haven precious metal. Expectations that the two leaders will be able to reach a deal at the G20 summit on June 28-29 have been waning by the day. On the data front, weekly jobless claims rose to 222K jobs as against the previous number of 219K. Today, market participants will be focusing on the retail sale number and better-than-expected number could keep gains capped for precious metals. Ahead of the important FOMC policy statement investors will be a little cautious.

ENERGY-Oil prices rallied by 2% in yesterdays session after attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman stoked concerns of reduced crude trade flows through one of the worlds key shipping routes. The attacks near Iran and the Strait of Hormuz reignited worries about an impact to flows from the Middle East if insurance companies begin to reduce coverage for voyages through the region. OPEC monthly report showed that OPEC brought its oil production down to 29.876 Mbpd in May, a five-year low for the oil cartel as it struggles to control member production to keep oil prices out of the doldrums. OPEC cut its forecast for growth in global oil demand due to trade disputes and pointed to risk of a further reduction, building a case for prolonged supply restraint in the rest of 2019. Natural gas prices tumbled despite a smaller than expected. Stronger future production forecast by EIA in their Short-term Energy outlook put downward pressure on prices. The weather is expected to be normal over next 2-weeks which will likely have a limited effect on price of natural gas. At the beginning of Hurricane season there are current no active storms in Atlantic.

BASE METAL - Copper prices rose and headed for their first weekly gain in nine weeks, on concerns that supply would tighten further as unionized workers at a Codelco mine decided to strike after a labor deal fell through. Latest data showed, copper inventories at warehouses tracked by the LME jumped to 248,550 tonnes as of Wednesday, the highest since September 2018. Other industrial metals except copper came under pressure in the latter half of the session amid a lack of progress in resolving the U.S.-China trade dispute. Data from China released earlier this week showed the worlds largest vehicle market in May had its worst-ever monthly automobile sales drop and factory inflation slowed during the same period as faltering manufacturing hit demand.

Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Wednesday, 12 June 2019




BULLION - Gold prices are holding at decent gains despite the dollar trading in a range against its major crosses. Consumer inflation grew at a slower pace but failed to have major impact on the greenback. The CPI rose 0.1% in May after a 0.3% rise in April, also on the domestic front inflation rose 3.05% as against the previous number of 2.99%. Yellow metal is getting support on lower levels as dispute between US and China remains unresolved. If there is no constructive resolution between the two leaders at the G20, the metal could further gain momentum as investors will look out for fresh safe haven buying. On the recent tussle, President Trump highlighted the point that use of tariffs is a part of his strategy and unless China does not agree on few major points the trade talks are going nowhere. President Trump keeps showing optimism on the same yet the deal keeps on getting extended and chaotic. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust rose 0.5% to 759.70 tonnes on Wednesday from 756.18 tonnes on Tuesday.

ENERGY- Oil prices steadied in morning after plunging 4% in yesterday session to nearly five-month lows as a result of further buildup in crude stockpiles and worries about lower demand growth. EIA reported another build in inventories at 2.2 million barrels. EIA data also showed that gasoline inventories rose by 800,000 barrels against the expectations for a supply decrease of 3,80,000 while distillate stockpiles declined by 1 million barrels last week against expectation for a climb of 7,04,000. Alongside concerns about rising supply, ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China, the world's two biggest oil consumers, weighed on prices. U.S. President Donald Trump reported he was holding up a trade deal with China. To add to the bearish sentiments, EIA short term outlooks forecasts shows that it estimates 2019 U.S. crude production of 12.32 million bpd, down 1% from May forecast. It also cut its 2020 output view by 0.9% to 13.26 Mbpd. For 2019, it lowered its WTI crude price outlook by 5.6% to $59.29 a barrel for WTI.

BASE METAL - Base metals are trading sideways over the last couple of session as lack of progress in resolving the U.S.-China trade tension continued to weigh on prices. But prices were cushioned by expectation of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Fed in the backdrop of slowing growth. Rapidly rising nickel supplies and slowing demand from stainless steel mills are weighing on prices of the metal, which are likely to come under further pressure this year as deficits disappear. China's iron ore were under pressure after surging to record highs last week, but expectations of tight supply and brisk demand were seen intact, limiting the downside which will support Zinc and nickel prices. Providing additional support to prices was the demand outlook for steelmaking ingredients as China may roll out more infrastructure projects to support its slowing economy.

Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Tuesday, 11 June 2019



BULLION - Gold prices calms down as investors were seen booking profits following robust gains over the past weeks. Even after so many months, US-China trade war has something new to offer every day. As soon as US-Mexico trade talks eased off, President Trump shifted his focus back to China, where he threatened that if China does not attend the G20 meet then US President will not hesitate to increase the tariffs rate on the remaining $300 billion worth of goods. Neither of them is ready to back down, although in the recent statements China hinted that they are ready to continue further discussion and negotiation on same. Any further updates will keep the markets active. On the data front, other than fed policy statement that is scheduled next week, market participants await CPI index data that is scheduled for release today and retail sales number that will be released later this week for indication on whether tariffs are slowing the economy.

ENERGY- Oil prices fell in early morning session after API reported another large, surprise build in crude oil inventories of 4.852 million barrels, coming in over expectations of 481,000- barrel drawdown in inventories. Cushing inventories also saw a sizable gain, and gasoline inventories grew as well. Gasoline witnessed a build of 8,29,000 bpd against estimated a build in gasoline inventories of 743,000 barrels. Distillate inventories fell by 3.461 million barrels for week, while inventories at Cushing rose by 2.365 million barrels. To add to the bearish sentiments, EIA short term outlooks forecasts shows that it estimates 2019 U.S. crude production of 12.32 million bpd, down 1% from May forecast. It also cut its 2020 output view by 0.9% to 13.26 Mbpd. For 2019, it lowered its WTI crude price outlook by 5.6% to $59.29 a barrel and its Brent view by 4.2% to $66.69. It left WTI and Brent price outlooks for 2020 unchanged at $63 for WTI and $67 for Brent.

BASE METAL - Base metals surged for yet another session with copper hitting a 2 week high lifted by hopes that top consumer China will pump money into building metals-intensive infrastructure. News that China will allow local governments to use proceeds from special bonds as capital for investment projects came after the US and Mexico reached a deal on Friday to avert US tariffs on Mexican goods, supporting prices of copper and other metals. Aluminium prices have been under pressure with rising LME inventories and an upswing in exports from top producer China fuelled worries about oversupply. Trump has said he is getting ready to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Group of 20 Summit in Japan later this month, although China has yet to confirm any such meeting. China's central bank said it will sell Yuan-denominated bills in Hong Kong in late June, which could weaken the Yuan.

Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com
Closing Bell


DAILY NIFTY SMART MOVERS 
SCRIPTS PRICE PRE. CLOSE CHANGE (%) CHANGE (Rs.) VOLUME
Tata Motors - DVR
84.60 81.05 4.38 3.55 275.23
Aurobindo Pharma
650.60 627.15 3.74 23.45 176.76
NMDC
107.70 104.10 3.46 3.60 2276.43
Bajaj Hold & Invest
3780.15 3654.00 3.45 126.15 2.39
Shriram Trans. Fin
1111.90 1075.20 3.41 36.70 43.10


DAILY NIFTY TOP LAGGARDS

SCRIPTS PRICE PRE. CLOSE CHANGE (%) CHANGE (Rs.) VOLUME
Indiabulls Housing
674.65 733.05 -7.97 -58.40 2570.42
Sun Pharma Inds.
389.80 401.85 -3.00 -12.05 738.97
Cummins India
761.35 774.10 -1.65 -12.75 6.88
Mahindra & Mahindra
638.20 647.15 -1.38 -8.95 69.44
Nestle
11610.00 11747.40 -1.17 -137.40 6.30


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Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Monday, 10 June 2019



BULLION - Gold prices consolidated a bit after hitting highest level in 15 months following uncertainty related to ongoing negotiation between US-China and US-Mexico. Yesterday, US President Trump again tried to put further pressure on China saying that, if Chinese President XI does not attend the G20 meeting, increased tariffs will be implied on the remaining $300 billion worth goods as well. Market might give some reaction on this new update, due to this ongoing war we also saw China gold reserve increase for the 6th consecutive month in May. On the Economic calendar US PPI data is expected today, although all eyes are waiting for the interest rate decision by the Fed in their policy meet next week. Speculators raised net long position in COMEX gold in the week ended June 4, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Friday.


ENERGY- Copper rose for second successive session after US struck a deal to avert a tariff war with Mexico, boosting sentiment on trade and easing concerns about a global slowdown. The US dropped its threat to impose tariffs on Mexico in a deal to combat illegal migration from Central America, helping to calm markets already worried about the China-U.S. trade war. Rare earth exports by China, the world dominant producer, fell 16% in May from a month earlier amid an increased focus on the raw materials due to the Sino-U.S. trade war. According to official customs data, China unwrought copper imports fell 10.9% from the previous month to 361,000 tns in May. Arrivals of unwrought copper, including anode, refined and semi-finished copper products were down from 405,000 tns in April and down 23.2% from 470,000 tns in May 2018. For the day, volatility for base metals could remain low ahead of important inflation number that will be released tomorrow from China.

BASE METAL - Oil prices traded choppy as Saudi Arabia and Russia had yet to agree on extending an output-cutting deal and U.S.-China trade tensions continued to threaten demand for crude. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih reported that Russia was only oil exporter still undecided on need to extend the output deal agreed by top producers. Meanwhile, Russia on Monday said it might support an extension of supply cuts that have been in place since January, warning oil prices could fall as low as $30 per barrel if producers supply too much crude. On trade war front, President Donald Trump said on Monday that he stands ready to hit China with more tariffs on at least $300bn worth of goods if he and China's President Xi Jinping are unable to come to a trade deal later this month at the G20 summit in Japan. China foreign ministry said that China is open for more trade talks with Washington but has nothing to announce about a possible meeting.

Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Sunday, 9 June 2019




BULLION - Gold shined the brightest in the past week, touching its new highs following heightened uncertainties, weak US economic numbers, and dovish central bank policies. US unemployment data remained stable, but the metal got a good push as US labor report recorded a very disappointing non-farm payroll data. Only 75K jobs were added against expectations 185K jobs. Although we can see a stable movement in the metal for a while as the US-Mexico trade war eased off as both the countries negotiated their terms and Mexico agreed to deploy security forces to stop the flow of illegal Central American migrants. Updates on the same might give slight jerks to the market. After a weak US economic numbers all eyes will be on the Fed policy meet that is scheduled for next week. SPDR Gold Trust said its holdings fell 0.15% to 756.42 tonnes on Friday from 757.59 tonnes on Thursday. MCX Silver prices were more than 1% percent positive on Friday trades. On the daily chart, price has given Falling Channel breakout, where it has moved above upper Bollinger band formation. Moreover, price has shifted above 50 days EMA on the daily timeframe, which indicates bullish trend in the counter.

ENERGY- MCX Copper prices were highly volatile during the last day of the week and closed the day with loss of 1%. On a weekly timeframe, price has given rising trendline breakdown and sustained below it, which indicates down trend in the counter. Moreover, price has moved below 21 DEMA, which suggest bearishness for near term. Furthermore, a momentum indicator RSI (14) and MACD has shown negative crossover, which intimate southward move in the prices. Hence, we expect bearish move for the day. MCX Zinc has recovered almost 1% on Thursday session. On the daily chart, price has sustained below trendline breakdown. Moreover, price has slipped below 50 DEMA and 21 days SMA, which indicates medium term trend remain bearish. On a weekly timeframe, price has moved below parabolic sar, which suggest downward move in the counter. A momentum indicator RSI and MACD has shown negative crossover on the daily chart; which adds more bearishness to the price. Hence, we are expecting bearish movement for the day.

BASE METAL - Crude Oil prices jumped more than 4% on Friday after a report that Washington could postpone trade tariffs on Mexico and amid signs that OPEC and other producers may extend their supply cuts. On the daily timeframe, Crude oil price has been moving below Rising Channel breakdown from last couple of days. Moreover, price has sustained below 50 days DEMA, which indicates bearish trend for medium term. Additionally, a momentum indicator RSI (14) and MACD has shown further weakness. So based on the above structure, we are expecting downward move for the day.


Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com