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Tuesday, 23 July 2019


BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on mixed path. Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday, recovering from a one-week low touched in the previous session, on expectations of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve and escalating tensions in the Middle East. The European Central Bank is expected to signal easier monetary policy at its meeting this week, while the Turkish central bank is expected to make a 250 bp cut on July 25. A U.S. Navy ship took defensive action against a second Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz last week, but did not see the drone go into the water, the U.S. military said on Tuesday. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and senior U.S. officials will travel to Shanghai on Monday for face-to-face trade meetings with Chinese officials, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources. Futures Fed watch remain 100% priced for a rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) by the Fed next week, and have even priced in an 18% chance of a 50 bp cut.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on positive path as oil prices rose on Wednesday, extending gains after an industry group reported a much bigger than expected drop in U.S. inventories, while the U.S. Navy said it may have downed a second Iranian drone last week. U.S. crude stocks fell more than expected in the week to July 19, declining by 11 million barrels to 449 million, the trade group American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 448,000 barrels, although gasoline stocks rose by 4.4 million barrels, compared with analysts expectations for a 730,000-barrel decline. Signs of rising tensions in the Middle East offset a weaker global growth outlook from the International Monetary Fund, which had kept prices largely flat for much of Tuesdays session. Irans capture of a British oil tanker last week sparked worries about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the worlds oil flows. The tensions come as the United States aims to cut off Irans oil exports and against the backdrop of supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries since the start of the year to prop up prices. U.S. natural gas futures eased on Tuesday on forecasts for slightly cooler weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously forecast.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade with upside path. Industrial metals on the London Metal Exchange advanced on Wednesday on reports of potential progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China. The trade war between the world's two biggest economies has weighed on global economic growth and dimmed demand outlook for industrial metals. A sign of progress in resolving the dispute often supports prices of base metals. China's central bank governor Yi Gang said the country's current interest rate level is appropriate, the financial magazine Caixin reported on Tuesday. Global aluminium production fell by 0.5% in the first half of this year, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Chinese output fell by 3.1% in June and by 0.4% over the first six months of the year, according to the IAI. Alcoa, which operates the Canadian smelter, expects the return to full capacity to be achieved in the second quarter of 2020.
 

Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com
 

Monday, 22 July 2019


BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on weaker path as gold prices fell in early Asian trade on Tuesday as the dollar rose to a near one-week high on expectation of a smaller interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve at the end of this month. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to lower its interest rate target range of 2.25%-2.50% by 25 basis points at a meeting ending July 31, but expectations for a larger 50-basis point cut have waxed and waned due to mixed signals from Fed policymakers. The global march towards lower interest rates reaches Europe this week with the European Central Bank expected at least to signal easier monetary policy. Expectations of policy easing by major central banks such as the Fed propped up global stocks on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Sterling was on the back foot on Tuesday as investors worried Boris Johnson, the front runner to become the UK's next prime minister, would trigger a "hard Brexit" from the European Union. 

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on mixed path as oil prices inched lower on Tuesday as the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it would act quickly if needed to keep the market supplied amid tensions in the Middle East and traders eyed a weaker demand outlook. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it was closely monitoring developments in the Strait of Hormuz. Consumers can be reassured that the oil market is currently well supplied, with oil production exceeding demand in the first half of 2019, pushing up global stocks by 900,000 barrels per day, the IEA said in a statement. The potential for disruption in the Middle East has come amid a more fundamental souring of market sentiment in recent days, with hedge funds, producers and traders all taking a more bearish tack in response to what they see as weakness in worldwide demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-affiliated producers including Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, have withheld supplies since the start of the year to prop up prices. U.S. natural gas futures gained almost 3% on Monday as forecasts for hotter weather and higher cooling demand next week lifted prices from two-week lows hit last week.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade with upside path. Most base metals rose on the LME, but lost ground on the Shanghai Futures Exchange as investors eyed monetary policies from major central banks, including a highly expected policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Expectations of policy easing by major central banks such as the Federal Reserve propped up global stocks. The global world refined copper market showed a 96,000 tonnes deficit in April, compared with a 42,000 tonnes deficit in March, the International Copper Study Group said in its latest monthly bulletin. London nickel prices rebounded on Tuesday after two sessions of declines, hovering around a one-year peak, while the base metals complex was broadly higher. Global primary aluminum output fell to 5.246 million tonnes in June from revised 5.406 million tonnes in May, data from the International Aluminium Institute showed on Monday.

Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Sunday, 21 July 2019



BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on sideways path. Gold prices inched lower on Monday, extending losses after the metal hit a six-year peak on Friday, as investors rolled back expectations for a sharp interest rate cut at the end of this month, while tensions in the Middle East limited losses for the bullion. Expectations of an aggressive interest rate cut rose after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams argued for pre-emptive stimulus in a speech last week. But a subsequent clarification that his remarks were academic and "not about potential policy actions" shredded prospects for a 50-basis-point rate cut at the end of the month. Expectations for a rate cut of half a percentage point at the Fed's July 30-31 meeting edged out further on Monday to hit 14.5%, according to CME's FedWatch tool, down from as high as 71% last week. Meanwhile, confrontation in the global oil trade's most important waterway has escalated with footage showing the Iranian military defying a British warship when it seized a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday. Hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish stance in COMEX gold in the week to July 16, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said in a report on Friday.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on upside path as oil prices rose on Monday amid high tensions in the Middle East after a British tanker was seized by the Iranian military at the end of last week. Irans Revolutionary Guards said they had captured a British-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf after Britain seized an Iranian vessel earlier this month, ratcheting up tensions along a vital international oil shipping route. Britain was weighing its next moves on Sunday, with few good options apparent as a recording emerged showing that the Iranian military defied a British warship when it boarded and seized the ship three days ago. Prime Minister Theresa Mays office said she would chair a meeting of Britains emergency response committee on Monday morning to discuss the crisis. The International Energy Agency (IEA) does not expect oil prices to rise significantly because demand is slowing and there is a glut in global crude markets. The IEA is reducing its 2019 oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million barrels per day from 1.2 million bpd due to a slowing global economy. The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States rose by 2 this week to 174, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes showed on Friday.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade with upside path. China will further ease its economic policy to deal with a prolonged and costly trade war with the United States, but it would save more aggressive measures as last resorts should the dispute get uglier, policy sources say. Nickel prices fell on Monday as a buying spree that sent the metal used mostly in making stainless steel to its highest in more than a year, started to lose steam. Three-month nickel on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 1.2% to $14,555 a tonne, while the most-traded nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 2.3% to 114,920 yuan ($16,708.35) a tonne. China will further ease its economic policy to deal with a prolonged and costly trade war with the United States, but it would save more aggressive measures as last resorts should the dispute get uglier, policy sources say.
 

Thursday, 18 July 2019


BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on upside path as gold prices rose to their highest in more than six years on Friday, supported by fresh tensions in the Middle East and comments from a top Federal Reserve official that cemented expectations of an interest rate cut. New York Fed President John Williams said on Thursday that policymakers need to add stimulus early to deal with too-low inflation when interest rates are near zero and cannot wait for economic disaster to unfold. The comments from Williams made it a virtual certainty the Fed would opt to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at its July 30-31 policy meeting and also fuelled expectations of an even deeper 50 bp reduction. Meanwhile, the United States said on Thursday that a U.S. Navy ship had "destroyed" an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz after the aircraft threatened the vessel, but Iran said it had no information about losing a drone. U.S. and Chinese officials were scheduled to have a phone call on trade later on Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in an interview on the sidelines of the G7 meeting in Chantilly, France, potentially opening the door for direct talks to resume.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on upside path as oil prices rose more than 1% on Friday after the U.S. Navy destroyed an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz, a major chokepoint for global crude flows, again raising tensions in the Middle East. The United States said on Thursday that a U.S. Navy ship had destroyed an Iranian drone in the Strait of Hormuz after the aircraft threatened the vessel, but Iran said it had no information about losing a drone. The International Energy Agency (IEA) is reducing its 2019 oil demand forecast due to a slowing global economy amid a U.S.-China trade spat, its executive director said on Thursday. Last year, the IEA predicted that 2019 oil demand would grow by 1.5 million bpd but had already cut the growth forecast to 1.2 million bpd in June this year. U.S. natural gas futures eased to a two-week low after the release of a government report showing a near normal storage build last week allowed the market to focus on forecasts for cooler weather and lower demand next week than previously expected.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade with upside path. China's top copper smelters on Thursday lowered their floor treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for the third quarter by 24.7%, two people familiar with the matter said, with one adding smelters will consider cutting output if low rates persist. Nickel extended its rally into another day on Friday, having hit a four-year high in Shanghai overnight, after comments from two Federal Reserve officials revived bets for an aggressive rate cut this month, lifting the base metals complex. Nickel, used to make stainless steel is heading for a weekly gain of 11.6% in London this week on bullish Chinese stainless steel output data and concerns over Indonesian export curbs, That would be its biggest weekly gain since April 2009. The global nickel market deficit widened to 12,500 tonnes in May from a revised shortfall of 7,500 tonnes in the previous month, the International Nickel Study Group said on Thursday. 


Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Wednesday, 17 July 2019


BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on upside path as gold prices rose to their highest in two weeks on Thursday, as the dollar eased after weaker-than-expected U.S. housing data increased expectations for an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The index had climbed to a one-week peak in the previous session on stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales. But it nudged lower as Treasury yields fell in the wake of weak U.S. housing market data and concerns about the unresolved U.S.-China trade conflict. U.S. homebuilding fell for a second straight month in June and permits dropped to a two-year low, suggesting the housing market continued to struggle despite lower mortgage rates. The Fed is widely expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting at the end of the month, with some in the market even betting on a 50 basis points cut. The Fed reported on Wednesday that the U.S. economy continued growing at a "modest" rate in recent weeks, with consumers continuing to spend and a "generally positive" outlook overall even in the face of disruptions caused by U.S. trade policy.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on weaker path as oil prices fell on Thursday, extending declines into a fourth day, after official data showed U.S. stockpiles of products like gasoline rose sharply last week, suggesting weak demand during the peak driving season. While data on Wednesday from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a larger-than-expected drawdown in crude stockpiles last week, traders focused on large builds in refined product inventories dragging prices down. U.S. crude inventories fell 3.1 million barrels, the EIA said, more than analysts forecasts for a decrease of 2.7 million barrels. However, gasoline stocks rose 3.6 million barrels, compared with analysts expectations for a 925,000-barrel drop. Distillate stockpiles grew by 5.7 million barrels, much more than expectations for a 613,000-barrel increase, the EIA data showed. Crude production was disrupted last week by Storm Barry, which came ashore on Saturday in central Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane, the first major storm to hit the U.S. Gulf of Mexico this season.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade with upside path. LME copper slipped 0.3% to $5,965 a tonne after U.S.-China trade war concerns returned in the previous session. ShFE copper fell 0.5% to 49,760 yuan a tonne. China's top copper smelters meet in the city of Hunchun on Thursday to set their floor treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for the third quarter. Shanghai nickel prices rose more than 4% in early trade on Thursday to a one-year high, extending a rally for the metal into a ninth day as speculators continue to pile into the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Nickel, used to make stainless steel and batteries for electric vehicles, is now up more than 30% since the start of this year in Shanghai and is almost 37% higher in London. U.S. aluminium producer Alcoa says global aluminium demand growth for 2019 is estimated to range between 1.25%- 2.25% and continues to project a global aluminium deficit of 1 million-1.4 million tonnes this year.



Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Tuesday, 16 July 2019



BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on sideways to weaker path as gold prices edged lower on Wednesday, but still held above the psychological $1,400 level, as the dollar gained after robust U.S. retail sales tempered fears of a sharp downturn in the world's largest economy. The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.4% last month as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and a variety of other goods. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales edging up 0.1% in June. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday reiterated pledges to "act as appropriate" to keep the U.S. economy humming, in a speech that did not deviate from expectations that a rate cut is on the way. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the United States still has a long way to go to conclude a trade deal with China but could impose tariffs on an additional $325 billion worth of Chinese goods if it needed to do so.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on weaker path as oil steadied after falling more than 3% overnight, with U.S. crude trailing Brent after U.S. inventory data fell short of expectations, amid conflicting signals from the U.S. and Iran over the disputes that have roiled prices recently. Iran denied it was willing to negotiate over its ballistic missile program, contradicting a claim by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and appearing to undercut Trumps statement that Washington had made progress on its disputes with Tehran. Tensions between the United States and Iran over Tehrans nuclear program have lent support to oil futures; given the potential for a price spike should the situation deteriorate. Crude inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels in the week to July 12 to 460 million, industry group the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday. Still, more than half the daily crude production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remained offline on Tuesday in the wake of Hurricane Barry, the U.S. drilling regulator said, as most oil companies were re-staffing facilities to resume production. U.S. natural gas futures on Tuesday fell more than 4%, its biggest daily percentage decline since late January on forecasts for less hot weather through the end of July than previously forecast and a slow return of production from the Gulf of Mexico after Tropical Storm Barry.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade with mixed path. Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra rejected a demand from a regional governor on Tuesday to cancel a permit for Southern Copper Corps $1.4 billion Tia Maria copper mine project amid protests from local residents. London zinc prices fell on Wednesday, ending a five-session streak of gains, after data showed a global zinc market deficit narrowed in May. The global zinc market deficit narrowed to 27,200 tonnes in May from an upwardly revised deficit of 87,500 tonnes in April, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Zinc inventories in LME-approved warehouses have risen around 60% since April when the stockpiles hit a record low, while stocks in warehouses tracked by ShFE have jumped 268% year-to-date. The global lead market recorded a 13,400-tonne surplus in May after a deficit of 30,800 tonnes in April, data from the ILZSG showed.
 



Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Monday, 15 July 2019



BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on sideways to weaker path as gold prices were little changed in early Asian trade on Tuesday as investors awaited U.S. retail sales data due later in the day for further clues on policy easing from the Federal Reserve in the face of a global slowdown. The dollar index was relatively unchanged against a basket of major currencies as the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later in the month kept the greenback on the defensive. A rate cut this month is seen as certain with interest rate futures traders pricing in a 72% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 28% likelihood of a 50 basis point cut, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields edged lower on Monday as investors focused on Tuesday's retail sales figures as the next indicator of the strength of the U.S. economy. India's gold imports rose 13.04% to $2.69 billion in June compared with a year earlier, the trade ministry said in a statement on Monday.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on weaker path as oil prices fell for a second day on Tuesday as more production facilities returned to operation in the U.S. Gulf after Hurricane Barry swept through over the weekend, while Chinese economic data dimmed the outlook for crude demand. U.S. crude fell by 10 cents, or 0.2% to $59.48 a barrel. The U.S. benchmark fell about 1% in the previous session. Both contracts last week made their biggest weekly gains in three weeks as U.S. oil inventories fell and diplomatic tensions rose in the Middle East. In the U.S. there was 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production offline in the U.S.-regulated areas of the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, about 80,000 barrels fewer than on Sunday. Workers also were returning to the more than 280 production platforms that had been evacuated. It can take several days for full production to be resumed after a storm leaves the Gulf of Mexico.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade with mixed path. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday seized on slowing economic growth in China as evidence that U.S. tariffs were havinga major effect and warned that Washington could pile on more pressure as bilateral trade talks sputtered along. Copper prices took a break from a strong rally on Tuesday after positive industrial output and investment data from top consumer China sent prices to a two-week high in the previous session. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was almost unchanged at $5,985.50 a tonne by 0229 GMT, while the most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange advanced 0.3% to 46,930 yuan ($6,827.17) a tonne. Protesters blocked a portion of Perus main coastal highway on Monday in the start of a new challenge to Southern Copper Corps $1.4 billion Tia Maria copper mine project that has been a lightning rod for conflict.
 



Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com