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Tuesday, 11 December 2018


BULLION:-

Gold prices were steady early on Wednesday, supported by expectations of fewer rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve next year, while palladium traded at a premium to gold. The dollar held near a one-month high against its peers on Wednesday, supported by a rebound in U.S. yields and weakness of the pound as its battering from uncertainty about Brexit continued. Asian stock markets edged ahead as U.S. President Donald trump sounded upbeat about a trade deal with China. China has agreed to cut tariffs on U.S.-built cars and auto parts to 15 percent from the current 40 percent, a Trump administration official said on Tuesday, setting the stage for new talks aimed at easing the bitter trade war between the world's two largest economies. U.S. producer prices unexpectedly rose in November as increases in the costs for services offset a sharp decline for energy products, but the overall momentum in wholesale inflation appears to be slowing. An attempt to oust British Prime Minister Theresa May gathered pace on Tuesday, a day after her decision to delay a vote in parliament on her Brexit deal for fear of a rout angered many in her Conservative Party. One of the International Monetary Fund's top officials warned on Tuesday that storm clouds were gathering over the global economy and that governments and central banks might not be well-equipped to cope.

METALS:-

Short-covering pushed LME copper to the day’s highs of $6,194.5/mt on tuesday. The contract relinquished some gains to close at $6,146/mt as the US dollar gained. The SHFE 1902 contract climbed to a high of 49,370 yuan/mt overnight after a higher open. It came off to close at 49,240 yuan/mt. We expect upward momentum in copper prices to wane today. LME copper is expected to trade at $6,120-6,170/mt with the SHFE 1902 contract at 49,000-49,400 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 80-220 yuan/mt. As the US dollar surged, LME nickel tumbled to close lower at $10,745/mt overnight, down from the day’s highs of $10,945/mt. The rebound in the dollar also weighed the SHFE 1905 contract overnight. The contract came off from a high of 89,940 yuan/mt to fall into the red, ending at 88,830 yuan/mt. LME nickel is expected to hover around $10,800/mt today with the SHFE 1905 contract at 88,500-90,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 89,000-96,500 yuan/mt.

ENERGY:-

Oil prices climbed by more than 1 percent on Wednesday, lifted by expectations that an OPEC-led supply cut announced last week for 2019 would stabilise markets as well as hopes that long-running Sino-American trade tensions could ease. Disruptions to Libyan oil exports after local militia seized the country's biggest oil field, El Sharara, were also buoying prices, traders said. The higher prices came amid a broader increase in Asian stock markets after U.S. President Donald Trump told Reuters in an interview that trade talks with China were taking place to defuse the trade disputes between the world's two biggest economies. To oil markets was a decision by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producers including Russia last week to cut supply by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd). Crude prices had lost a third of their value between early October and the announcement of the cuts.


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Vienna In order to put an end to crude oil prices, the organization of oil producing countries has agreed to cut OPEC production. The meeting lasted for two days agreed to cut 12 lakh barrels per day (MBD) between OPEC countries. Although the cut is much higher than expected, that is why news of crude prices in the international market has increased by 5.4 percent. It is believed that it will have a huge effect on India and once again the order of the price of petrol and diesel may start.

OPEC will reduce 12 million barrels a day
OPEC and its partners agreed to cut production of 1.2 million barrels per day, out of which eight million barrels will be cut by OPEC alone. Although Iran has emerged as a winner in this controversial conversation. Iran said that it has been exempt from the deduction because it is already facing American sanctions.

Crude costlier by 5.4 percent
After this news, Brent crude prices in London climbed up to 5.4 percent. However, later the trade was limited and crude moved up 3 percent to $ 61.67 a barrel level.

OPEC's decision has increased the apprehensions that the deal could increase the resonance of US President Donald Trump, who did not want to cut crude production and keep prices low.

Russia's Strategy Worked
It is believed that the non-OPEC member was behind the deal as Russia's Strategy, which has many bilateral meetings with members. In this way, he managed to persuade Saudi Arabia and Iran, which was considered the hardlinest opposition. However, these days OPEC was facing considerable pressure to keep oil prices down.

Declining output
The deal at the end was a surprise to everyone. In the earlier conversation, OPEC and its allies had proposed a reduction of 10 million barrels per day in oil production, in which 6.50 lakh OPECs were to be reduced. According to the reports, the producers of oil will use the output of October as a baseline to cut production.


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Sunday, 9 December 2018


BULLION:-

Gold traded firm near a five-month peak hit early on Monday, supported by a disappointing U.S. jobs data that fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve may stop raising interest rates sooner than expected. The dollar slipped against the yen and the euro, while stocks extended their slump as worries over U.S.-China trade tensions battered investor sentiment. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 155,000 jobs in November, while economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing by 200,000 jobs. The U.S. central bank is flagging a turning point in monetary policy, as a Fed policymaker on Friday backed interest rate hikes in the "near term" but nodded to increasingly less certainty ahead. U.S.-China trade negotiations need to reach a successful end by March 1 or new tariffs will be imposed, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Sunday, clarifying there is a "hard deadline" after a week of seeming confusion among President Donald Trump and his advisers

METALS:-

London copper fluctuated to close slightly higher at $6,149/mt on Friday. Despite a positive start, the SHFE 1902 contract weakened on Friday night, with pressure from the daily moving average. It closed at 49,060 yuan/mt. Open interest for the SHFE copper complex remained below 500,000 lots, suggesting limited confidence among investors. LME copper is expected to trade at $6,120-6,170/mt today with the SHFE 1902 contract at 48,900-49,200 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 150-420 yuan/mt. Tight supplies are likely to keep buyers chasing high-quality materials. London nickel fluctuated to close higher at $10,955/mt on Friday. The SHFE 1905 contract fell to close at 89,350 yuan/mt on Friday night after climbing to a high of 90,140 yuan/mt. LME nickel is expected to hover around $10,900/mt today with the SHFE 1905 contract at 88,500-90,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 88,500-98,000 yuan/mt.

ENERGY:-

ONGC has sold a cargo of Russian Sokol crude cargo at a similar premium from the previous month, trade sources said on Monday. The cargo, loading on Feb. 10 to 16, was sold to a European trading house at a premium of $4.80 a barrel above Dubai quotes, they said. The deal marked the first February Sokol cargo to trade this month. The premium surprised the sources as they were expecting Sokol premiums to fall in line with other light sour grades sold to Asia and to reflect weaker refining margins. International oil prices rose on Monday, extending gains from Friday when producer club OPEC and some non-affiliated producers agreed a supply cut of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from January. Prices surged on Friday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producers including heavyweight Russia announced they would cut oil supply by 1.2 million bpd, with an 800,000 bpd reduction planned by OPEC-members and 400,000 bpd by countries not affiliated with the group.



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Thursday, 6 December 2018


BULLION:-

Gold prices rose slightly on Friday and were headed for their best week in 15, as the dollar weakened following a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, while investors awaited U.S. nonfarm payroll data for clues about the health of the world's top economy. Atlanta Federal Reserve bank president Raphael Bostic on Thursday said he felt the Fed should continue raising rates towards a "neutral" level, noting that despite recent market volatility and increasing uncertainty, he did not see "any indications of a material weakening in the macroeconomic data at the moment." The U.S. economy is "performing very well overall," Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said, capping a week of widespread market nervousness with a reminder that the U.S. economy continues to expand. Asian share markets tried to find their footing on Friday as speculation the Federal Reserve might be "one-and-done" with U.S. rate hikes helped salve some wounds after a punishing week.

METALS:-

London copper slid to a low of $6,080/mt on Thursday as shorts added their positions after the contract climbed to a high of $6,120.5/mt. LME copper later rebounded to end at $6,134.5/mt. After opening in the red, the SHFE 1902 contract fluctuated overnight and closed at 48,950 yuan/mt. As both LME and SHFE copper have fallen below all short-term moving averages, copper prices are expected to remain weak and trade range bound at lows today. LME copper is likely to trade at $6,080-6,120/mt today with the SHFE 1902 contract at 48,600-49,000 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 120-320 yuan/mt. London nickel slumped on Thursday and ended at $10,860/mt. After opening lower, the SHFE 1901 contract fell to 88,640 yuan/mt overnight as shorts added and longs cut their bets. It clawed back some losses in later trades and closed at 89,010 yuan/mt. With worries over an escalation in the US-China trade tensions on Huawei CFO arrest, We expect LME nickel to weaken when hovering around $10,900/mt today and the SHFE 1901 contract to trade at 88,500-90,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 88,500-98,000 yuan/mt.

ENERGY:-

Oil prices fell on Friday, pulled down by OPEC's decision to delay a final decision on output cuts, awaiting support from non-OPEC heavyweight Russia. The declines came after crude slumped by almost 3 percent the previous day, with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) ending a meeting at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on Thursday without announcing a decision to cut crude supply, instead preparing to debate the matter on Friday.Has decided to meet Friday again...(as) Russia remains the sticking point," said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia/Pacific at futures brokerage Oanda in Singapore. "We are beginning to witness the outline of the next iteration of production cuts, with OPEC conforming to cut its own production by around 1 million barrels per day, with the cartel lobbying non-OPEC members to contribute more," Japanese bank MUFG said in a note. Oil producers have been hit by a 30-percent plunge in crude prices since October as supply surges just as the demand outlook weakens amid a global economic slowdown. Output from the world's biggest producers - OPEC, Russia and the United States - has increased by 3.3 million bpd since the end of 2017, to 56.38 million bpd, meeting almost 60 percent of global consumption.


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Wednesday, 5 December 2018



BULLION:-

U.S. stock futures tumbled on Thursday and Asian markets followed after Canadian authorities arrested a top executive of Chinese tech giant Huawei Technologies, fanning fears of further tensions between China and the United States. MKTS/GLOB The dollar, which has enjoyed an unrivalled surge against its peers this year, will be undermined in 2019 on increasing concerns about slowing U.S. economic growth, a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists showed. Tariff-driven price increases have spread more broadly through the U.S. economy, though on balance inflation has risen at a modest pace in most parts of the country, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday in its latest report on the economy. China expressed confidence on Wednesday that it can reach a trade deal with the United States, a sentiment echoed by U.S. President Donald Trump a day after he warned of more tariffs if the two sides could not resolve their differences.

METALS:-

London copper rebounded to close at $6,193.5/mt overnight as shorts cut their bets after the contract fell to a low of $6,158.5/mt. LME copper snapped a four-day losing streak and came under pressure at the five- and 10-day moving averages. With a lower open, the SHFE 1902 contract fluctuated to close at 49,310 yuan/mt overnight. This lowered it below all short-term moving averages and the middle Bollinger band. Open interest for the SHFE copper complex decreased below 500,000 lots, reflecting limited confidence among investors. LME copper is expected to trade at $6,140-6,190/mt today with the SHFE 1902 contract at 49,100-49,400 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 130-300 yuan/mt. In the physical market, sellers were reluctant to offload cargoes and these tightened supplies across the market. London nickel rebounded from earlier lows and closed at $11,220/mt overnight. After initially falling to a low of 90,250 yuan/mt, the SHFE 1901 contract clawed back losses and ended at 91,250 yuan/mt overnight. Investors remained cautious on lingering concerns over US-China trade.  

ENERGY:-


Oil prices fell along with weak stock markets on Thursday, but trading was tepid ahead of a meeting by producer group OPEC that is expected to result in a supply cut aimed at draining a glut that has pulled down crude prices by 30 percent since October. Traders said oil prices were being weighed down by weak global financial markets, which saw stock markets tumble on Thursday. Early October, crude oil has lost around 30 percent of its value amid surging supply and fears that an economic downturn will erode fuel demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is meeting at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on Thursday to decide its production policy. Led by Saudi Arabia, OPEC's crude oil production PRODN-TOTAL has risen by 4.1 percent since mid-2018, to 33.31 million barrels per day (bpd). Oil output from the world's biggest producers - OPEC, Russia and the United States - has increased by a 3.3 million bpd since the end of 2017, to 56.38 million bpd, meeting almost 60 percent of global consumption. PRODN-TOTAL C-RU-OUT C-OUT-T-EIA.

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Tuesday, 4 December 2018


BULLION:-

Gold prices were steady early Wednesday as the dollar edged up, while palladium dipped from record highs touched in the previous session but was in close proximity to the bullion. Spot gold was at $1,236.85 per ounce at 0121 GMT. In the previous session, prices touched a peak of $1,241.86, their highest since Oct. 26. US gold futures were down 0.4 per cent at $1,241.4 per ounce. One of the most influential Federal Reserve policymakers said on Tuesday he expects further interest rate hikes continuing next year since the US economy is "in really good shape," reinforcing the Fed's upbeat tone in the face of growing doubts in financial markets. US President Donald Trump on Tuesday held out the possibility of an extension of the 90-day trade truce with China, but warned he would revert to tariffs if the two sides could not resolve their differences. 

METALS:-

London copper fell to close at $6,168.5/mt overnight as shorts built their bets on the recovery of the US dollar. The SHFE 1902 contract slid to close at 49,230 yuan/mt after a lower open overnight. Copper prices are likely to remain range bound at lows today with a trading range of $6,150-6,200/mt for LME copper and of 49,200-49,700 yuan/mt for the SHFE 1902 contract. Spot premiums are seen at 110-260 yuan/mt. London nickel relinquished earlier gains and closed at $11,130/mt overnight as the US dollar climbed. The SHFE 1901 contract tumbled and closed at 90,740 yuan/mt overnight as gains in the dollar encouraged shorts to add bets and forced longs to cut bets. LME nickel is expected to weaken to hover around $11,100/mt today and the SHFE 1901 contract is expected to trade at 90,500-92,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 90,500-99,500 yuan/mt.

ENERGY:-

With less than 48 hours to go before a critical OPEC gathering, Saudi Arabia and Russia are set to meet in Vienna for a make-or-break preparatory meeting on Wednesday that’s going to set the direction for the oil market. The stakes are high after crude prices suffered their largest monthly drop since the global financial crisis in November, and politicians from U.S. President Donald Trump to French President Emmanuel Macron have called on OPEC to keep energy prices in check. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih on Tuesday cautioned an output deal wasn’t done -- at least not yet. In an interview with Bloomberg, Al-Falih said that it was “premature” to say that the OPEC+ group, which includes allies such as Russia and Kazakhstan, will agree to cut output. His comments were less bullish than last month’s statements in Abu Dhabi when he called for 1 million barrels a day of production cuts. Crude gave up much of its gains on Tuesday following his comments. The opportunity for countries to put their cards on the table comes on Wednesday at the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, the panel that oversees the 2016 deal between OPEC and its allies.



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Monday, 3 December 2018


BULLION:-

Gold prices rose on Tuesday, after hitting a more than one-month high earlier in the session, as the dollar stumbled after the United States and China agreed to a temporary truce in their trade conflict that rattled global markets. "Dollar weakness is primarily driving gold prices higher," said Benjamin Lu, a commodities analyst at Phillip Futures. "Markets seem little doubtful about the success of this Sino-U.S. trade war truce... It seems a bit cautious," Lu added. The dollar weakened against its major peers on Tuesday, as the thaw in trade tensions between Washington and Beijing supported investor confidence though concerns about the fragility of the truce capped wider gains in risk assets. Analysts now expect market focus to move to the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Markets are expecting a fourth rate hike at its Dec. 18-19 meeting. Gold has fallen about 10 percent from a peak in April as investors preferred the dollar as safe haven, with U.S.-China trade friction unfolding against a backdrop of higher U.S. interest rates.

METALS:-

London copper fell to close at $6,250/mt overnight after it climbed to a high of $6,328.5/mt. Despite an initial increase to a high of 50,370 yuan/mt, the SHFE 1902 contract fell into negative territory to close at 49,910 yuan/mt overnight. Copper prices are expected to stay at highs as a ceasefire in the US-China trade war, the Fed’s dovish tone and expected oil supply cuts prompt investors to shun safe-haven US currency and to turn to riskier assets. LME copper is likely to trade at $6,230-6,280/mt today with the SHFE 1902 contract at 49,800-50,250 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 100-200 yuan/mt. London nickel fluctuated to close at $11,195/mt overnight. The SHFE 1901 contract regained some losses to end at 91,500 yuan/mt after it fell to a low of 91,080 yuan/mt. Weak domestic fundamentals could provide SHFE nickel with limited upward momentum. We expect LME nickel to hover around $11,200/mt today with the SHFE 1901 contract at 91,000-92,500 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 91,500-100,500 yuan/mt.

ENERGY:-


Oil prices rose on Tuesday, extending strong gains from the previous day amid expected OPEC-led supply cuts and a mandated reduction in Canadian output. The 90-day truce in the trade dispute between the United States and China was also still supporting markets, traders said. Both crude benchmarks climbed by around 4 percent the previous session after Washington and Beijing agreed a truce in their trade disputes and said they would negotiate for 90 days before taking any further action. Middle East dominated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will on Dec. 6 meet at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, to agree a joint output policy. "A cut in OPEC and Russia production of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) will be required to reverse the ongoing counter-seasonally large increase in inventories," the bank said. It added that it expected a joint effort by OPEC and Russia to withhold supply to push Brent oil prices "above the mid-$60 per barrel level".


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