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Sunday, 23 April 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Oil recovers some lost ground, but market remains under pressure

Oil prices recovered some ground on Monday following last week's big losses, driven by expectations that OPEC will extend a pledge to cut output to cover all of 2017, although a relentless rise in US drilling capped gains.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures added 23 cents, or 0.5 percent, by 0037 GMT, but were still below the $50 mark pierced on Friday at $49.85 a barrel.

Brent crude futures rose 27 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $52.23 per barrel.

Oil prices fell steeply last week on the back of stubbornly high crude supplies, despite a pledge by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some other producers to cut production by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) for six months from Jan. 1 to support the market.

U.S. drillers added oil rigs for a 14th week in a row, to 688 rigs, extending an 11-month recovery that is expected to boost U.S. shale production in May by the biggest monthly increase in more than two years.

U.S. crude pruduction is at 9.25 million barrels per day (bpd), up almost 10 percent since mid-2016 and approaching that of OPEC's top exporter Saudi Arabia.

"WTI oil slipped back below the $50 per barrel level, amid concerns that the lack of inventory drawdown since the OPEC production cuts is a sign that the cuts are not enough to rebalance supply and demand and put a floor under prices," said William O'Loughlin, investment analyst at Rivkin Securities in a note on Monday.

Both the Brent and WTI oil benchmarks are down more than 7.5 percent since the end of last year.

Iran's crude oil exports are set to hit a 14-month low in May, suggesting the country is struggling to raise exports after clearing out stocks stored on tankers.

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Friday, 21 April 2017

Best Commodity Tips

Gold climbs quietly as investors wary ahead of French vote

Gold prices rose slightly on Friday as investors awaited the first-round of voting in the presidential French election at the weekend and possible announcements about tax changes in the United States.Spot gold XAU= was up 0.3 percent at $1,284.62 an ounce by 2:30 p.m. EDT (1830 GMT), on track to close the week little changed after five straight weeks higher.U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled up 0.4 percent at $1,289.10.

"The big news over the weekend will be the French election and the market will be to an extent on hold ahead of that," said Mitsubishi commodities analyst Jonathan Butler.There was potential for safe-haven buying of gold after France said security forces were fully mobilized for the weekend vote after an Islamist militant killed a policeman Thursday night. the near term, if the geopolitical tensions intensify, there is a chance that gold prices will reach $1,300 or more,"

A move in gold above $1,290/91 would be significant as it would break above a downtrend that has been in place since gold touched an all-time high of $1,920.30 in 2011, Butler said."You would have thought with the Champs-Elysees attack that you would have got a little more safe-haven buying ahead of the French election," said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist for U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Seattle.

"If you're in the gold market, there's already stretched speculation and there's not a lot of new news to drive it. So in the meantime it's probably time for a bit of a pause,"

Investors were also watching events in Washington. President Donald Trump's administration will unveil a tax reform plan soon and expects it will be approved by Congress this year, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Thursday. is at risk of some profit-taking after a strong recent run, but should be supported by other factors, analysts said.

"Gold struggled to hold this week's gains as the dollar strengthened and concerns over global risk eased. However, selling was relatively muted, which suggests a period of consolidation is now upon us," ANZ analysts wrote in a note.Spot silver XAG= slipped 0.6 percent to $17.89 an ounce, extending losses into a fifth session, having shed more than 3 percent so far this week despite tapping a five-month high on Monday.

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Thursday, 20 April 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Oil markets remain cautious on record supplies

Oil opened the last day of a choppy trading week on a cautious note over doubts that an OPEC-led production cut was having the desired effect of restoring balance to a market that has been dogged by oversupply for more than two years.

Brent crude futures were at $53.07 per barrel at 0113 GMT, up 8 cents from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures had risen 8 cents to $50.79 a barrel.

The stable prices came after a more-than-3.5 percent fall in both benchmarks earlier this week as doubts emerged over the effect of an effort led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut production by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first half of the year.

The market is taking note: The value of the entire Brent forward curve <0> has slumped steadily since the start of the OPEC-led cuts in January. The average monthly value of a 24-month Brent curve is down by more than $4 per barrel since January to around $54.15 a barrel.

The high supplies are in part a result of other producers, who haven't agreed to cut output, increasing their exports.

"The resurgence of U.S shale continues to sabotage the cartel's efforts to stabilise the saturated markets," said Lukman Otunuga, analyst at futures brokerage FXTM.

U.S. production is soaring, jumping by almost 10 percent since mid-2016 to 9.25 million bpd . This brings its output close to the world's top two producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Attempting to prevent a further ballooning in supplies, some OPEC producers including de-facto leader Saudi Arabia are lobbying to extend the pledge to cut production beyond June.

To determine the health of oil markets, analysts say it is important to monitor inventory levels.

Yet outside the United States, where data is plentiful and still shows bloated inventories , reliable data is difficult to come by.

There is some suggestion that OPEC has been selling oil out of its own stocks in order to meet customer demand despite some production cuts it made earlier this year.

And fuel inventories around Asia's oil trading hub of Singapore have also fallen, although it is not clear whether this is to meet strong demand or if this is to create storage space in anticipation of more supplies coming.

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Wednesday, 19 April 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Gold steady on geopolitical worries amid firmer dollar

Gold prices held firm on Thursday after falling as much as 1 percent the previous day, with tensions surrounding North Korea and the upcoming French presidential
election driving safe-haven demand amid a firmer dollar.

Spot gold was mostly unchanged at $1,278.64 per ounce at 0346 GMT. The metal fell 0.8 percent on Wednesday in its worst one-day drop in over a month.

"Sentiment overall is that everybody is looking for $1,300 at least by the end of the week. Sentiment around geopolitical issues is really playing on people's minds," said Spencer
Campbell, general manager with Kaloti Precious Metals in Singapore.

"We are seeing a lot more physical purchasing, with shops seeing a 100-percent increase in buying from the retail sector,"said Campbell.

"This clearly shows the pull back is an opportunity (to buy gold before it climbs above $1,300)."
   
Analysts and traders said gold would be supported by simmering geopolitical tensions around North Korea and nervousness ahead of the first round of France's presidential
election.                        
 
"With this weekend's French Presidential vote event risk, it is hard to see gold forming a meaningful correction to the downside before next week at the earliest," said Jeffrey Halley,
senior market analyst at OANDA.
   
"Safe-haven buying should continue to support any dips."Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 1.39 percent on
Wednesday, their biggest one day gain since early September 2016. Holdings climbed nearly 12 tonnes from Tuesday to 860.76
tonnes.        
   
Meanwhile, spot silver gained 0.2 percent to $18.11.Platinum rose 0.3 percent to $965.29, while palladium was up 0.5 percent at $779.10.

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Tuesday, 18 April 2017

Best Commodity Tips

Oil prices dip on bloated U.S. market, mixed Saudi signals

Oil prices dipped on Wednesday as bloated U.S. supplies weighed on markets while a fall in Saudi crude exports was offset by rising production in the country.

Brent crude futures , the international benchmark for oil, were at $54.84 per barrel at 0059 GMT, down 5 cents from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 4 cents at $52.37 a barrel.

"Crude oil prices were slightly weaker as the focus turned back to U.S. inventories and output," ANZ bank said on Wednesday.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday showed that U.S. markets remained bloated.

Although crude inventories fell by 840,000 barrels in the week to April 14 to 531.6 million barrels, still close to record highs, gasoline stocks rose by 1.4 million barrels as refinery crude oil runs increased by 334,000 bpd, the API said.

Official U.S. oil data is expected to be published later on Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Outside the United States, a fall in Saudi output as part of its planned production cuts for the first half of this year lent the market some support.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), of which Saudi Arabia is the de-facto leader, together with other producers like Russia have agreed to cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first half of the year to rein in a global fuel supply overhang and prop up prices.

Saudi crude exports fell to 6.96 million bpd in February, from 7.7 million bpd in January, according to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (Jodi).

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Monday, 17 April 2017

Best Commodity Tips
Oil prices mixed after US production seen rising

Crude oil prices were mixed in thin trading on Tuesday after the Easter holiday break shut many markets for as long as four days and a US government report indicated rising production, which may keep a cap on prices after recent gains.

Benchmark Brent crude futures were up 5 cents at $55.41 at 0058 GMT. They ended a quiet session on Monday down 53 cents at $55.36, after rising the three previous weeks.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 1 cent at $52.64 a barrel. They settled down 53 cents at $52.65 a barrel.

The benchmark for US oil had also risen for three straight weeks through Thursday, before the Easter break.

US shale production in May is likely to post the biggest monthly gain in more than two years, government data showed on Monday, as producers have stepped up the pace of drilling with oil prices holding above $50 a barrel.

May output is expected to rise by 123,000 barrels per day to 5.19 million bpd, according to the US Energy Information Administration's drilling  ..

If that is right, May will have the biggest monthly increase since February 2015 and the highest monthly production level since November 2015.

More barrels could be on their way to market from US shale fields as financial companies are investing billions in production, a Reuters analysis shows.

Any increase in output in the US, now the world's third-biggest oil producer, will likely put pressure on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) - which agr ..

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Sunday, 16 April 2017


Best Commodity Tips
Oil falls after failed North Korean missile test, US rig count gains

Crude oil fell in quiet trading on Monday, after the three-day Easter break, on signs the United States is continuing to add output, undermining OPEC efforts to support prices, and as the market digested North Korea's failed missile launch on Sunday.

Benchmark Brent crude futures were down 49 cents at USD 55.40 at 0310 GMT. On Thursday, before the break closed most major markets, they settled up 3 cents at USD 55.89 a barrel.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were also down 47 cents at USD 52.71 a barrel. They rose 7 cents to USD 53.18 on Thursday.

Both benchmarks last week rose for a third consecutive week, with Brent adding 1.2 percent over the four days before the Good Friday holiday and WTI up 1.8 percent.

The market was subdued to start this week with major trading centre London closed for a holiday on Monday. Markets are braced for more geopolitical tensions over North Korea, after its attempted launch on Sunday of a ballistic missile failed as the projectile blew up almost immediately.

The United States is working with allies and China on responses to the failed test, US President Donald Trump's national security adviser said on Sunday.

Drillers in the United States last week added rigs for a 13th consecutive week, in a sign that output gains there will continue unabated.

Energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Thursday that drillers added 11 oil rigs in the week to April 13, bringing the total count up to 683. That is the highest in about two years.

Increasing U.S. output is proving a constant source of irritation to attempts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major oil producers to curb output and sustain a rally in prices in a market that has been oversupplied since mid-2014.

U.S. crude oil production has climbed to 9.24 million barrels per day, according to the latest Energy Information Administration data. That makes the country the world's third-largest producer after Russia and Saudi Arabia.

"Non-OPEC compliance will improve over the next two months with Russia driving the largest reductions in volume terms," BMI said. "Kazakhstan is likely to continue to exceed its quota given strong output from the Kashagan field."

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