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Saturday, 23 June 2018


The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Friday announced an agreement to raise oil output which, in accord with non-OPEC producers, had been reduced last year in order to boost prices that had been in free fall mainly due to a supply glut.

Following a ministerial meeting here of the 14-nation cartel, the statement released, however, did not provide any details of the production increases to be allocated among members. 

Current OPEC Chairman, the UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei, told reporters after the meeting that the increase agreed upon is "a little bit less than 1 million barrels" over OPEC's current output.

OPEC and non-OPEC producers, including Russia, had put in place 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) cut from January 2017, which helped boost crude prices go over $80 a barrel last month. 

Friday's agreement to increase production came after three days of negotiations because only a few members like Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait have the ability to increase output.

The OPEC meeting comes at a crucial time when global crude oil prices are at the highest since the peak of 2014, pushed up also by current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Earlier this week, Indian Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan urged the OPEC to move to responsible pricing of oil and gas, saying the current prices are posing a threat to fragile world economic growth.

Addressing an OPEC seminar here, Pradhan said global trade practices in the hydrocarbons sector are not contributing to energy access and affordability to all.



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Thursday, 21 June 2018

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Gold Prices Move Off Lows as Dollar Rally Stalls –   Gold prices eased from fresh lows for the year as the dollar turned negative on weaker U.S. economic data. A sharp retreat in the dollar – from its highest level since last summer – supported a recovery in gold but sentiment remained negative amid expectations a more aggressive Fed rate-hike cycle would continue to spur demand for the greenback. Following the Fed’s rate hike last week, and more hawkish outlook on rate hikes, gold prices have slipped 3%, as traders bet that the divergence between the Fed’s hawkish outlook on monetary policy relative to other central banks will drive demand for the greenback. “The divergence between U.S. and rest of the world monetary policy will support longer and greater USD strength than we had anticipated,” Barclays (LON:BARC) said in a note to clients.
Zinc import window unlikely to reopen end-Jun as yuan declines – The import window for zinc is unlikely to reopen in late June as the yuan depreciates, SMM believes. The import window opened briefly in the middle of the month. Import losses will widen if the yuan continues to weaken against a strong US dollar. The yuan has declined since the middle of April as US-Sino trade tension grew. As of June 21, the yuan stood at 6.47 against the US dollar. SMM also believes that potential arrivals of imported zinc in the following days are likely to be directed to bonded areas given the current glut.
Further potential price declines deter Shanghai spot nickel buyers – Purchasing interest among downstream consumers in Shanghai’s spot nickel market cooled on Thursday June 21 from June 20, as most market participants believed that prices of futures would decrease further, SMM learned. Prices of futures rose in the morning and spot premiums edged down 100 yuan/mt from the previous day. Downstream consumers were keen to inquire about prices but held back from purchasing in anticipation of further declines. On Thursday June 21, most transactions in Shanghai were heard at 116,050-116,450 yuan/mt. Norilsk nickel traded at a premium of about 600 yuan/mt against the Wuxi Stainless Steel Exchange 1807 contract, while Jinchuan traded at a premium of about 700 yuan/mt.
Oil Prices Rise Ahead of Key OPEC Meeting – Oil prices climbed more than 1% on Friday, with all eyes on OPEC and its allies as they meet in Vienna later on Friday.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OEPC), a producer cartel de-facto, is meeting with some non-OPEC members including Russia in Vienna later today to discuss possible crude output hike. The group started withholding supply in 2017 to prop up prices. Saudi Arabia and Russia, both of which have the ability to increase production, are opting for a substantial output hike. Meanwhile, countries without spare capacity, including Iraq, Iran and Venezuela, prefer to keep the supply limits in place.  It was reported earlier this week that China is considering to impose tariffs on U.S. crude imports. The 25% duty on U.S. crude imports, should it be implemented, could potentially make American oil uncompetitive in China.
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Bullions: Bullion counter can continue to head southwards as stronger greenback and hawkish stance taken by the fed is keeping the sentiment downbeat. Gold can take support near 30600 and can face resistance near 30900 in MCX. Meanwhile Silver can take support near 39200 and can face resistance near 39900. The US jobs market does not appear overly tight and the Federal Reserve should continue with a gradual pace of interest rate rises amid a strong economy to balance its employment and inflation goals, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday. Concerns about US trade policy are increasing among business officials who are beginning to hold off on hiring and investment decisions given the level of uncertainty, Powell said on Wednesday. The European Union will begin charging import duties of 25 per cent on a range of US products on Friday, in response to U.S tariffs imposed on EU steel and aluminium early this month, the European Commission said on Wednesday.

Base Metals: In base metals counter Nickel may open in green along with zinc while rest of the metals can trade with sideways bias. Fears of a full-blown trade war with the United States have magnified concerns about the outlook for the world's second largest economy, following weaker-than-expected growth data for May. Copper can face resistance near 463 and can take support
near 453. London copper rebounded from a three-week low on Thursday after China said it was eyeing cuts in banks' reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and other measures to spur economic growth, which could support copper demand in the world's top user. The global world refined copper market showed a 55,000 tonnes surplus in March, compared with a 87,000 tonnes surplus in February, the International Copper Study Group said. Zinc can take support near 205 and resistance near 209 while lead can take support near 163 and can face resistance near 165. Nickel may trade with upside bias as it can take support near 1000 and head towards 1026. Nickel prices in London and Shanghai also jumped, supported by gains in Chinese steel futures. Aluminium may witness some short covering as it can take support near 147 and resistance near 150 in MCX. Global primary aluminium output in May rose to 5.441 million tonnes from a revised 5.303 million tonnes in April, International Aluminium Institute data showed.

Energy: Crude oil may open with sideways bias as investors will eye the outcome of OPEC meeting ending tomorrow. Oil prices fell on Thursday as Iran signaled it could be won over to a small rise in OPEC crude output, potentially paving the way for the producer cartel to agree a supply increase during a meeting on Friday. However, prices were prevented from dropping further by record refinery runs in the United States and a large decline in crude inventories, a sign of strong fuel demand in the world’s biggest economy. Crude oil can face resistance near 4500 and can take support near 4420 in MCX. Iran, a major supplier within the producer cartel of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), signaled on Wednesday it could agree on a small increase in the group’s output during a meeting to be held at OPEC’s headquarters in Vienna on June 22 together with nonOPEC member but top producer Russia. Natural gas can trade with sideways bias as it can face resistance near 204 and can take support near 198. Today weekly inventory data can show drawdown which can assist in further recovery in prices.

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Wednesday, 20 June 2018


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Gold Prices Struggle to Find Footing as Dollar Rallies -   The growing threat of an all-out trade-war between the U.S. and China drew a muted reaction in gold prices as the dollar rally kept a lid on demand for the yellow metal. China vowed to retaliate to the latest trade salvo from the White House – after Trump threatened to impose a 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods – stoking fears of a trade war between the world's two largest economies. Yet, gold prices struggled to capture the upside enjoyed by other traditional safe-heavens such as the USD/JPY, U.S. Treasuries and the USD/CHF as investors were wary of increasing their bets on gold amid a rally in the dollar to a nearly one-year high.

Four firms approved for copper scrap imports in 14th batch of approvals - Some 2,935 mt of copper scrap imports received the green light in the 14th batch of approvals for restricted solid scrap imports, which was released on Tuesday June 19 by the solid waste management centre of China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment. Four companies involved in copper scrap imports made it to the approved list in this round. Two are located in Foshan, Guangdong province; one in Taizhou, Zhejiang province; and the last one is in Tianjin, SMM learned. This round's approved volume compared with 2,805 mt of copper scrap imports in the 13th batch of approvals.

Alumina prices dip for four straight weeks with continued pressure - Declining prices of alumina across China continued to face pressure from higher operating capacity, a potential surge in domestic supply, and falling prices of primary aluminium, SMM learned. As of Friday June 15, the price of alumina averaged 2,812 yuan/mt, down 92 yuan/mt from a week ago, according to SMM assessment. This marked a fourth consecutive week of decline, following a drop of 94 yuan/mt in the previous week. The traded price in Shanxi and Henan province fell below 2,800 yuan/mt on June 15, SMM learned. Alumina operating capacity is expected to increase another 1 million mt per year from July, SMM learned. Some 100,000 mt of bagged alumina at Guangxi ports that were banned from conversion from bag to bulk grew the likelihood of their sale domestically. Declining prices of primary aluminium depressed alumina prices and hampered downstream demand for alumina as the commissioning of aluminium new capacity slowed.

Oil prices edge up on report of lower U.S. crude inventories - Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Wednesday, supported by a drop in U.S. commercial crude inventories reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API). U.S. crude inventories fell by 3 million barrels in the week to June 15 to 430.6 million barrels, according to the weekly API report published on Tuesday.Looming large over markets, however, was a June 22 meeting in Vienna of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), together with some other producers including Russia, to discuss forward supply policy. De-facto OPEC leader and top crude exporter Saudi Arabia as well as Russia, which is not a member of the cartel but the world's biggest oil producer, are pushing for looser supply controls, which were introduced in 2017 to prop up prices.

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Tuesday, 19 June 2018

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Gold Prices Gain As Trump Threatens New Tariffs, Dollar Weakens -   Gold prices gained on Tuesday as intensifying U.S.-China trade tensions fuelled investor appetite for safe-haven gold. A softer dollar was also cited as supportive. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that he has ordered the U.S. Trade Representative to identify $200 billion worth of China goods for additional tariffs. Trump said in a statement that the move would be in retaliation for China’s earlier decision to raise tariffs on $50 billion in U.S. goods.  "China apparently has no intention of changing its unfair practices related to the acquisition of American intellectual property and technology. Rather than altering those practices, it is now threatening United States companies, workers, and farmers who have done nothing wrong," Trump said. "After the legal process is complete, these tariffs will go into effect if China refuses to change its practices, and also if it insists on going forward with the new tariffs that it has recently announced," he added.

Aluminium fluoride prices to stablise in near term - Aluminium fluoride prices in China are likely to stablise in the near term as major producers will jointly support prices, SMM believes. Major fluorochemical enterprises in Hengshan, Hunan province convened on Thursday June 14 and agreed to collaborate to support prices. With thin profit margins in a declining, oversupplied market, producers will stop aluminium fluoride prices from breaking the 9,000 yuan/mt level. Aluminium fluoride prices are likely to continue to fall in the longer term as major fluorochemical enterprises, such as Do-Fluoride Chemicals, resume production.

Zinc inventory rises over the weekend with inflow of imported zinc - Social inventory of zinc across Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin extended its increase over the Dragon Boat Festival long weekend due to inflow of imported zinc into Shanghai and more deliveries from smelters to Tianjin, SMM data showed. As of June 19, inventory in the three markets amounted to 157,800 mt, up 13,200 mt from Friday June 15. Inventory in Shanghai increased over 10,000 mt from Friday, while inventory in Guangdong went up slightly on limited arrivals due to maintenance at local smelters.

Oil falls on rising output, escalating China-U.S. trade spat - Oil prices fell on Tuesday on expectations that producer cartel OPEC and key ally Russia will gradually increase output after withholding supplies since 2017. The escalating trade dispute between the United States and China, in which both sides have threatened stiff tariffs on each others' key export goods, also kept markets on edge and triggered a sharp sell-off in Chinese shares. The Shanghai stock index (SSEC) slid below 3,000 points for the first time in nearly 21 months.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) together with a group of non-OPEC producers including Russia started withholding oil supplies in 2017 to prop up prices. Following a sharp increase in crude prices from their sub-$30 per barrel lows in 2016, the group on June 22 will meet in Vienna, Austria, to discuss forward policy.


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Monday, 18 June 2018

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Gold prices slumped to three-week lows as disappointed speculators liquidated long positions despite fresh trade skirmishes between the United States and China -   Gold on MCX settled down -1.17% at 31010 as disappointed speculators liquidated long positions despite fresh trade skirmishes between the United States and China. Gold deepened losses after President Donald Trump announced that the United States will implement a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion of goods from China and Beijing quickly said it would hit back with its own tariffs. There was some support in gold prices after the European Central Bank (ECB) policy announcement struck a decidedly dovish tone, as expected. The ECB also announced it would halt bond purchases and would phase out the economic stimulus by the end of the year. The central bank also said it would keep its interest rates unchanged at least through the summer of 2019. Gold discounts in India were at their widest in nine months this week as higher domestic prices tempered retail purchases, while buying in other Asian centers remained subdued amid a lack of significant momentum in global prices.

Copper prices slid on concerns over demand in China and as investors reacted to U.S. tariffs on China and a selloff in oil - Copper on MCX settled down -1.59% at 473.9 on concerns over demand in China and as investors reacted to U.S. tariffs on China and a selloff in oil. China’s industrial output, investment and retail sales all grew less than expected, offsetting upbeat trade data and suggesting further weakness ahead if Beijing sustains its crackdown on factory pollution and local government spending. China’s economy is finally starting to cool under the weight of a multi-year crackdown on riskier lending that is pushing up borrowing costs for companies and consumers, with data pointing to a broad slowdown in activity in May. While slower Chinese growth suggested lower demand, China’s output of 10 non-ferrous metals including copper, aluminium, lead, zinc and nickel rose 4.3 percent in May from a year earlier to 4.55 million tonnes. Aluminium production was up 1.5 percent at 2.79 million tonnes.

U.S. oil slumps as China threatens duty on U.S. crude imports - U.S. oil prices slumped on Monday after China threatened duties on American crude imports in an escalating trade dispute with Washington.In an escalating spat over the American trade deficit with most of its major trading partners, including China, U.S. President Donald Trump last week pushed ahead with hefty tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports, starting on July 6. China on Friday said it would retaliate by slapping duties on American export products, including crude oil. This was in response to reports that top suppliers Saudi Arabia and Russia would likely increase production. The producer cartel of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which is de-facto led by Saudi Arabia, and some allies including Russia have been withholding output since the start of 2017. They will meet in Vienna on June 22 to decide forward production policy.


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Friday, 15 June 2018

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Gold prices have been relatively quiet and is consolidating between $1,280 and $1,307 an ounce as the precious metal lacks clear direction amid a diverse set of fundamentals.
The gains were capped as prices absorbed the positive outcome from the crucial summit between the US and North Korea. Both leaders signed an agreement after historic talks held in Singapore.
Also, the US Federal Reserve rate hike of 25bps and hawkish instance of policymakers indicating two more rate hikes in 2018 did not hurt gold prices much.
Trade fears have again come to the fore as Trump’s administration has announced tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods. Trump’s policies bring about a lot of uncertainty as he embraces trade conflict and this turns investors across the globe towards gold.
As far as price trajectory is concerned, we are witnessing strong support emerging at $1280 an ounce mark at COMEX, corresponding to Rs 30,800 per 10gm at MCX.
Prices are trying to find their way up after weeks of consolidation and look set for a breakout on the higher side, where they will initially target $1,325 an ounce or Rs 31,650 per 10 gm.
Once that hurdle is cleared, it will pave the way for higher targets of close to $1,365 an ounce or Rs 32,200 per 10 gm.
On the contrary, any break below $1,280 an ounce or Rs 30,800 per 10gm at MCX will negate our long view as the trend will then turn southwards and prices will target lower levels of $1,260 an ounce or Rs 30,500 per 10gm at MCX.

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