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Showing posts with label Best Intraday Tips. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Best Intraday Tips. Show all posts

Monday, 18 February 2019

Soybean futures (Mar) is likely to witness sell on rise from 3775 & is expected to test 3700 levels on the downside. 


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The initial estimates coming from the Soybean Processors’ Association (SOPA) shows that in the upcoming Kharif season output is likely to rise by a staggering 38% on a sharp increase in average yield across the country. India’s soybean output at 11.48 million tonnes this year compared to 8.3 million tonnes in the previous year on favourable climatic condition. This increase in production is being attributed to the major producing state in Madhya Pradesh wherein the yield is estimated to rise by 30.5% to 1,094 kg per ha for the current season from 838 kg from the previous season. The survey also highlighted that in Maharashtra output is estimated to rise by 32% to 3.84 million tonnes for this year from 2.91 million ha last year. Soy oil futures (Mar) is expected to face resistance near 770 levels & trade with a downside bias. Demand in the physical market is subdued from millers and crushers with ongoing lean season for soybean and oil market. CPO futures (Mar) is expected to plunge further & test 555 levels on reports of higher imports. The latest statistics show that imports of palm oils including RBD Palmolein and CPO touched 23.18 lakh tonnes (lt), up from 22.74 lt reported in the same period last year. Mustard futures (Apr) will possibly remain stable in the range of 3900-3940 levels. The changing weather patterns causing rainfall over the major growing regions where the crops are in the fields are bringing concerns over the production scenario.


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Cotton futures (Feb) is expected to bounce back amid short covering and lower level buying taking support near 19990.


On the spot markets, cotton prices are expected to remain firm this year due to lower production in the country, apart from rising consumption. In the international markets, the traders are keeping an eye on what's going on over in Beijing for some positive news. High-level officials from the US and China are in talks as a critical trade war deadline is getting closer since March 1 marks the deadline for the current 90-day pause in the trade war. Chana futures (Mar) is expected to intensify its rally & test 4350 levels. Dal mills have kicked off stocking to build inventory after a jump in arrival of pulses from fresh harvest that is likely to double up in coming weeks. Dal mills purchase raw pulses from market and then process it into dal of various grades. On processing 60% comes out as dal, while 25% goes as cattle feed. The rest is wasted. Another reason for the upside momentum is being attributed to the market talks that Nafed will not sell chana in open markets and will go to build buffer stock around 10 lakh tonnes. The trend of mentha oil (Feb) is bullish & may take support near 1590 levels. Weather disturbances in the major growing areas are giving signals of delayed sowing in the key growing areas of Uttar Pradesh. Moreover, demand from both domestic and export fronts are emerging at existing price levels. Export demand has started to pick up from China. 

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Nifty likely to open higher.

The Nifty50 is likely to open higher on Tuesday following positive trend seen in other Asian markets. The index closed 83 points lower at 10,640 on Monday. Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a rise of 28.5 points or 0.27 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,681 -level on the Singaporean Exchange. Asian shares hovered near a four-month peak on Tuesday, supported by hopes that Sino-US trade talks were making positive progress and expectations of policy stimulus from central banks, said a Reuters report. US oil prices hit a three-month high on Tuesday, buoyed by production cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Global Market:
Asian Markets: Asian markets are higher today as Chinese and Hong Kong shares show gains. The Shanghai Composite is up 0.80% while the Hang Seng is up 0.37%. The Nikkei 225 is not trading..
US Markets: North and South American markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. The S&P 500 gained 1.09%, while the Bovespa led the IPC lower. They fell 1.04% and 0.02% respectively.
European Markets: European markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. The CAC 40 gained 0.30%, while London's FTSE 100 was off 0.24%. Shares in Germany were unchanged with the DAX at 11,299.20.

Major Headlines of the day:

Rupee opens at 71.48 per dollar.

India's Ambuja Cements Ltd on Monday posted a 58.8 percent jump in fourth-quarter profit, exceeding analysts' estimates, as it logged higher cement sales and a tax benefit. Standalone profit, which includes a joint operation accounted on a proportionate basis, came in at 5.37 billion rupees ($75.22 million) for the quarter ended December 31, from 3.38 billion rupees a year earlier, the company said.

Grasim Industries signed a definitive agreement to acquire the Chlor-Alkali Business (CAB) of KPR Industries (India) Ltd (KPR) by way of a slump sale, for a cash consideration of Rs253cr. The transaction will be funded through internal accruals. KPR would in turn utilize Rs253cr towards a full and final settlement of the lenders' dues under a One-Time Settlement. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals, the company said in the regulatory filing on Monday.

Cipla to acquire 11.71% stake in Wellthy Therapeutics The acquisition will be done for a cash consideration of Rs10.5cr, the company said in a press note.

Earnings Reaction To Watch
LINDEINDIA

Trend in FII flows:- The FIIs were Net Value of Rs -1239.79 segment while the DIIs were Net Value of 2336.74 the provisional figures.

Securities in Ban For Trade Date 19-FEB-2019
1. ADANIENT
2. JISLJALEQS
3. JETAIRWAYS
4. RPOWER
5. PCJEWELLER
6. CGPOWER 
7. RELINFRA
8. IDBI



Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 

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Friday, 15 February 2019

Cotton futures (Feb) is likely to plunge further towards 20100-20000 levels. 

                CAPITALSTARS INVESTMENT ADVISER

Cottonprices moved lower in Punjab, Haryana and upper Rajasthan, tracking weakness in US natural fiber. Sharp decline in domestic futures along with higher output estimate in China also weighed on spot prices. Worries about a looming March 1 deadline for a US-China trade agreement also dragged prices lower. Meanwhile, negotiators from the United States and China, the world's top soybean buyer, are trying to hammer out a trade deal before a March 1 deadline, when US tariffs on USD 200 billion worth of Chinese imports are scheduled to increase to 25 percent from 10 percent. Guar seed futures (Mar) may face resistance near 4300 levels, while guar gum futures (Mar) is expected to remain below 8520 levels. The weekon-week declining ratio of guar seed to guar gum is depicting the fact that demand for these commodities are decreasing. Chana futures (Mar) is expected to test 4335 levels on the higher side. The counter is trading higher at major markets in the country following firm cues from fresh physical trade activity at lower rates. Flour millers are actively purchasing chana due to cheaper prices and easy availability compared to White Pea. Moreover, the Cold waves and untimely rains may further damage the standing crop. Mentha oil (Feb) is likely to witness profit booking from higher levels facing resistance near 1650. However, overall sentiments are bullish as delayed sowing in the state is likely to affect the crop yield. As per reports, farmers are now worried as untimely rains and inclement weather conditions have delayed the sowing in key producing belts. The production is likely to be badly affected if weather conditions don't improve in the next few days. 


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Thursday, 14 February 2019

MCX Updates


BULLION - MCX Gold and Silver may note mixed trade in line with international market but selling could be seen at higher levels. COMEX gold trades in a narrow range near $1315/oz after yesterday�s minor 0.1% decline. Gold trades in a range as market players await more clarity in US-China trade talks and US government shutdown. US-China trade talks are continuing today however news sources reported that both sides remained deadlocked on key issues. If there are no signs of a deal, safe haven demand for gold may rise however it will also push US dollar higher limiting gains in gold. The US House and Senate on Thursday approved a spending bill aimed at averting a government shutdown and sent it to President Donald Trump. It is likely that President Trump may approve the bill to avert another shutdown and this could lend support to US dollar. Amid other factors, gold remains supported by central bank buying, Fed�s dovish stance, disappointing US economic data and Brexit uncertainty. Prime Minister Theresa May lost another round of Brexit voting in Parliament. The divide in British Parliament will make it difficult for UK Prime Minister to renegotiate the Brexit deal with EU. US retail sales stumbled 1.2% in December, the largest decline since September 2009. ETF outflows however show weaker investor interest. Gold holdings with SPCR ETF were unchanged at 796.854 tonnes yesterday, lowest since Jan.8. Gold has witnessed listless trade in last few days and this will continue unless there is clarity on major issues. We however may see selling at higher levels if US dollar manages to hold its gains.

ENERGY- Crude Oil- MCX Crude Oil may note some gains tracking cues from international exchange however upside is limited. NYMEX crude trades higher above $54 per barrel after a 0.9% gain yesterday. Crude trades higher supported by tightening supply outlook amid OPEC�s production cut deal and supply concerns relating to Venezuela. Saudi has indicated willingness to extend production cuts further next month. Meanwhile, Russia's Energy Minister said it would accelerate output cuts agreed to in a deal. Russia expects production at about 11.3 million barrels a day as against target of 11.191 mn bpd. However, weighing on crude price is higher US production and demand concerns amid weakening outlook for major economies. Disappointing US economic data released yesterday rekindled worries about health of the economy and brought a halt to recent gains in US equity market. Chinese inflation data released today also disappointed. Equity markets have turned choppy also as market players awaits more clarity on US-China trade deal and US government shutdown. US-China trade talks are continuing today however news sources reported that both sides remained deadlocked on key issues. The US House and Senate on Thursday approved a spending bill aimed at averting a government shutdown and sent it to President Donald Trump. Crude has witnessed a sharp rebound in last few sessions however the gains will be challenged by concerns about health of US and Chinese economy.

Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may trade with a negative bias in line with international market. NYMEX natural gas trades weaker near $2.56/mmBtu after a 0.1% decline yesterday. Weighing on gas price is EIA weekly report which noted a 78 Bcf decline in US natural gas stocks as against expectations of 85 Bcf decline and 5-year average decline of 160 Bcf. A smaller than average drop in gas stocks has reduced the deficit to some extent. However, supporting gas price is forecast of cold weather in US which will increase heating demand. Natural gas may remain under pressure amid easing supply concerns however we do not expect a sustained drop and price could take support near $2.5/mmBtu levels. Focus today will be on US weather and weekly rig activity report.

BASE METAL - Base metals on LME trade sideways to lower after noting volatile movement yesterday. LME Lead was the best performer with 0.8% gains followed by modest 0.2% gains in Copper prices. In other metals however Nickel ended 1.65% lower while Aluminium and Zinc closed 0.5% and 0.2% lower respectively. Nickel can take support near 865 and can recover towards 885. Aluminum prices may find some support near 130.



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Soybean futures (Mar) may face resistance near 3785 levels & trade with a negative bias. 


India’s soybean output is likely to rise by a staggering 38 per cent this year on a sharp increase in average yield across the country, following favourable climatic condition in major cultivating states including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Data captured through the latest assessment of farmers, traders and other stakeholders by the apex industry body the Soybean Processors’ Association (SOPA) showed India’s total soybean output standing at 11.48 million tonnes during the ongoing harvesting season as compared to 8.36 million tonnes in the previous season. Mustard futures (Apr) is expected to consolidate in the range of 3900-3940 levels. Heavy rains and hailstorms that lashed north-western India last week have caused damage to the oilseed. Ref. soy oil futures (Mar) is expected to trade with a negative bias & test 755 levels. The market participants are expecting huge soyoil imports near to 4 lakh tons in month of Feb. Bulk stocks shall continue to add pressure on market sentiments. CPO futures (Feb) may fall further & test 553 levels. Malaysian palm oil futures closed lower on Wednesday for a fourth consecutive session on back of weaker U.S. soyoil, reversing gains. The benchmark palm oil contract for April delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 0.2 percent to 2,250 ringgit ($554) a tonne at the close. In news, The U.S. soybean processing pace slowed slightly in January from the previous month, although the crush was still the largest on record for the first month of the year, according to analysts polled ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report. The monthly NOPA report will be released at 11 a.m. CST (1700 GMT) on Friday.

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Wednesday, 13 February 2019

The short covering in soybean futures (Mar) may face resistance near 3790 levels.


India’s soybean output is likely to rise by a staggering 38 per cent this year on a sharp increase in average yield across the country, following favourable climatic condition in major cultivating states including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Data captured through the latest assessment of farmers, traders and other stakeholders by the apex industry body the Soybean Processors’ Association (SOPA) showed India’s total soybean output standing at 11.48 million tonnes during the ongoing harvesting season as compared to 8.36 million tonnes in the previous season. Mustard futures (Apr) is expected to trade with an upside bias taking support near 3900 levels. Heavy rains and hailstorms that lashed northwestern India last week have caused damage to the oilseed. Ref. soy oil futures (Mar) is expected to trade with a negative bias & remain below 763 levels. The market participants are expecting huge soyoil imports near to 4 lakh tons in month of Feb. Bulk stocks shall continue to add pressure on market sentiments. The short covering in CPO futures (Feb) may remain restricted to 564 levels. Malaysian palm oil futures slipped on Tuesday, posting a third day of declines amid slowing export demand. On the international market, weak external markets, led by the falls in crude and U.S. soyoil, also weighed on palm.

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