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Showing posts with label Commodity Tips. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Commodity Tips. Show all posts

Monday, 18 February 2019


 
BULLION - MCX Gold and Silver may witness choppy trade in line with international market but buying could be considered at lower levels. COMEX gold trades near $1328/oz after testing the highest level since April 2018. Gold has benefitted from correction in US dollar index from recent highs as market players await more clarity on US-China trade and Fed monetary policy stance. US-China trade talks will continue in Washington this week and while talks are progressing well there has been no concrete announcement yet. Also market players are assessing the possibility of US extending the March 1 deadline and potential of a meeting between US and Chinese President. Meanwhile trade worries rose as US investigators submitted report on the effect of imports of automobiles and automobile parts on the national security of the US increasing possibility of auto tariffs. European Union vowed prompt retaliation if the US imposes tariffs on imported vehicles. FOMC minutes due this week will reflect central bank stance on rate hikes as well as balance sheet reduction plan. Amid other factors, ETF outflows show weaker investor interest however this may change if price holds near $1330/oz levels. Gold may witness choppy trade awaiting fresh cues however overall bias is still positive given increasing global uncertainty and dovish tilt of major central banks.

ENERGY- Crude Oil- MCX Crude may witness choppy trade in line with international market but overall bias is still positive. NYMEX crude trades near $55.75/bbl after hitting a November 2018 high of $56.06/bbl earlier this week. Brent crude trades weaker near $66/bbl after yesterday modest gain. Crude rallied sharply last week as rally in US equity market was coupled with Saudi�s pledge to deepen production cuts and supply disruption at Saudi�s Safaniyah oilfield, world's largest offshore oilfield. The rally came to a halt as market players assess US-China trade talks as well as longevity of supply outage in Saudi Arabia. Talks between US and China are progressing however there has been no concrete announcement yet while there is a possibility that US may extend the March 1 deadline. Tensions between US and European Union rose after EU vowed prompt retaliation if the US imposes tariffs on imported vehicles. On supply side, there is not much clarity on how long the supply disruption in Saudi will continue. OPEC has achieved 70% compliance with production cut deal that will run from January to June and Saudi has indicated that it is willing to deepen cuts. In further signs of falling supply from Saudi, reports noted that Saudi exports fell 6.7% to 7.687 million barrels per day in December. Crude�s rally is also challenged by rising US crude stocks, record high US crude production and Russia�s hesitance in extending cooperation with OPEC. Crude has rallied sharply in last few days and lack of fresh factors could result in some profit taking but overall bias is still positive given progress in US-China trade talks and OPEC�s production cuts.

Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may note mixed trade in line with international market but sell on rise is suggested.
NYMEX natural gas trades mixed near $2.63/mmBtu holding on to last week�s minor gain. Natural gas has seen some buying interest after recent drop to 1-year low. US weather forecasts are mixed as cold snap is forecasted in western and Midwest US while warmer weather is seen in East Coast. On supply front, production remains high while smaller than average decline in gas stocks has eased tightness concerns. Drop in rig count however questions the sustainability of production growth. Natural gas may witness choppy trade unless there is clarity on weather front but overall bias remains weak as winter is nearing an end and US supply is not as tight.

BASE METAL - Base metals on LME trade sideways to lower today following mixed movement yesterday. LME Lead was the worst performer with 2.3% drop followed by 0.6% slide in Zinc prices and modest 0.2% decline in Aluminium prices. In other metals however Copper prices ended with 1.4% gains while Nickel ended 0.4% higher.



Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 

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Thursday, 14 February 2019

MCX Updates


BULLION - MCX Gold and Silver may note mixed trade in line with international market but selling could be seen at higher levels. COMEX gold trades in a narrow range near $1315/oz after yesterday�s minor 0.1% decline. Gold trades in a range as market players await more clarity in US-China trade talks and US government shutdown. US-China trade talks are continuing today however news sources reported that both sides remained deadlocked on key issues. If there are no signs of a deal, safe haven demand for gold may rise however it will also push US dollar higher limiting gains in gold. The US House and Senate on Thursday approved a spending bill aimed at averting a government shutdown and sent it to President Donald Trump. It is likely that President Trump may approve the bill to avert another shutdown and this could lend support to US dollar. Amid other factors, gold remains supported by central bank buying, Fed�s dovish stance, disappointing US economic data and Brexit uncertainty. Prime Minister Theresa May lost another round of Brexit voting in Parliament. The divide in British Parliament will make it difficult for UK Prime Minister to renegotiate the Brexit deal with EU. US retail sales stumbled 1.2% in December, the largest decline since September 2009. ETF outflows however show weaker investor interest. Gold holdings with SPCR ETF were unchanged at 796.854 tonnes yesterday, lowest since Jan.8. Gold has witnessed listless trade in last few days and this will continue unless there is clarity on major issues. We however may see selling at higher levels if US dollar manages to hold its gains.

ENERGY- Crude Oil- MCX Crude Oil may note some gains tracking cues from international exchange however upside is limited. NYMEX crude trades higher above $54 per barrel after a 0.9% gain yesterday. Crude trades higher supported by tightening supply outlook amid OPEC�s production cut deal and supply concerns relating to Venezuela. Saudi has indicated willingness to extend production cuts further next month. Meanwhile, Russia's Energy Minister said it would accelerate output cuts agreed to in a deal. Russia expects production at about 11.3 million barrels a day as against target of 11.191 mn bpd. However, weighing on crude price is higher US production and demand concerns amid weakening outlook for major economies. Disappointing US economic data released yesterday rekindled worries about health of the economy and brought a halt to recent gains in US equity market. Chinese inflation data released today also disappointed. Equity markets have turned choppy also as market players awaits more clarity on US-China trade deal and US government shutdown. US-China trade talks are continuing today however news sources reported that both sides remained deadlocked on key issues. The US House and Senate on Thursday approved a spending bill aimed at averting a government shutdown and sent it to President Donald Trump. Crude has witnessed a sharp rebound in last few sessions however the gains will be challenged by concerns about health of US and Chinese economy.

Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may trade with a negative bias in line with international market. NYMEX natural gas trades weaker near $2.56/mmBtu after a 0.1% decline yesterday. Weighing on gas price is EIA weekly report which noted a 78 Bcf decline in US natural gas stocks as against expectations of 85 Bcf decline and 5-year average decline of 160 Bcf. A smaller than average drop in gas stocks has reduced the deficit to some extent. However, supporting gas price is forecast of cold weather in US which will increase heating demand. Natural gas may remain under pressure amid easing supply concerns however we do not expect a sustained drop and price could take support near $2.5/mmBtu levels. Focus today will be on US weather and weekly rig activity report.

BASE METAL - Base metals on LME trade sideways to lower after noting volatile movement yesterday. LME Lead was the best performer with 0.8% gains followed by modest 0.2% gains in Copper prices. In other metals however Nickel ended 1.65% lower while Aluminium and Zinc closed 0.5% and 0.2% lower respectively. Nickel can take support near 865 and can recover towards 885. Aluminum prices may find some support near 130.



Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 

For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Soybean futures (Mar) may face resistance near 3785 levels & trade with a negative bias. 


India’s soybean output is likely to rise by a staggering 38 per cent this year on a sharp increase in average yield across the country, following favourable climatic condition in major cultivating states including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Data captured through the latest assessment of farmers, traders and other stakeholders by the apex industry body the Soybean Processors’ Association (SOPA) showed India’s total soybean output standing at 11.48 million tonnes during the ongoing harvesting season as compared to 8.36 million tonnes in the previous season. Mustard futures (Apr) is expected to consolidate in the range of 3900-3940 levels. Heavy rains and hailstorms that lashed north-western India last week have caused damage to the oilseed. Ref. soy oil futures (Mar) is expected to trade with a negative bias & test 755 levels. The market participants are expecting huge soyoil imports near to 4 lakh tons in month of Feb. Bulk stocks shall continue to add pressure on market sentiments. CPO futures (Feb) may fall further & test 553 levels. Malaysian palm oil futures closed lower on Wednesday for a fourth consecutive session on back of weaker U.S. soyoil, reversing gains. The benchmark palm oil contract for April delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 0.2 percent to 2,250 ringgit ($554) a tonne at the close. In news, The U.S. soybean processing pace slowed slightly in January from the previous month, although the crush was still the largest on record for the first month of the year, according to analysts polled ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report. The monthly NOPA report will be released at 11 a.m. CST (1700 GMT) on Friday.

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Wednesday, 13 February 2019

MCX updates

BULLION - Bullion counter may remain sideways to weak bias. U.S. consumer prices were unchanged for a third straight month in January, leading to the smallest annual increase in inflation in more than 1-1/2 years, which could allow the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady for a while. Several Federal Reserve officials have indicated that they will support a pause in interest rate hikes from the U.S. central bank to assess its impact in economy. Gold can face resistance near 33000 while it has support near 32800. Silver can slip towards 39200 while taking resistance near 39650. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world�s largest gold backed exchange-traded fund, dropped 0.26 percent to 796.85 tonnes on Wednesday from 798.89 tonnes on Tuesday. Russia�s Finance Ministry said on Wednesday that Russia had produced 314.42 tonnes of gold and 1,119.95 tonnes of silver in 2018.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on firm path as oil prices inched up on Thursday, buoyed by hopes that potential progress in the latest SinoU.S. Tariff talks would improve the global economic outlook. Optimism that a trade deal could be reached between the United States and China was boosted when U.S. President Donald Trump said talks were going â��very wellâ��. But climbing U.S. oil stockpiles weighed on prices. U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week to the highest since November 2017 as refiners cut runs to the lowest since October 2017, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories built for a fourth week in a row, rising 3.6 million barrels to 450.8 million barrels in the week to Feb. 8. Analysts polled by Reuters forecast an increase of 2.7 million barrels. Crude oil can test 3880 while taking support near 3800. Natural gas may witness lower level buying as it can test 188 in MCX. 

BASE METAL - Base metals prices may trade on mixed path. Copper may test 439 while taking support near 432 in MCX. China on Thursday reported imports and exports data for December that easily topped expectations amid its trade dispute with the U.S. That better than-expected news comes a month after China's customs data showed imports and exports both fell unexpectedly in December. January dollar denominated exports meanwhile rose 9.1 percent from a year ago, according to Chinese customs data. China's exports in January were expected to have contracted 3.2 percent from a year earlier, compared with the previous month's 4.4 percent decline. China's overall trade surplus was $39.16 billion in January. That easily topped the $33.5 billion expected, according to the Reuters poll. December trade surplus was $57.06 billion. Zinc can move in range of 183-187. Underpinning zinc, data showed LME zinc inventories have eroded further to their lowest since January 2008. Lead can move sideways in range of 142-145. Nickel can take support near 865 and can recover towards 885. Aluminum prices may find some support near 130.


Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Tuesday, 12 February 2019


MCX updates

BULLION - MCX Gold and Silver may note mixed trade in line with international market but general bias may be on the downside. COMEX gold trades in a narrow range near $1310/oz amid mixed cues. Support from correction in US dollar and central bank buying is countered by gains in equity market and continuing ETF outflows. The US dollar index trades little changed near 96.6 levels after a 0.4% decline yesterday. The US dollar weakened after eight days of gains as easing worries about US government shutdown and US-China trade dispute reduced safe haven demand. US President Donald Trump said he's open to extending a March 1 deadline to raise tariffs on Chinese products if the two sides are near an agreement. US lawmakers reached a deal in principle to avert another shutdown while President Trump has indicated he may consider the proposal. Asian equity markets trade largely higher today after 1.5% gain in US market yesterday. ETF outflows however show waning confidence about gold�s recent price gains. Gold holdings with SPDR ETF fell by 3.233 tonnes to 798.885 tonnes. Gold has been trading in a narrow range above $1300/oz and this may continue unless there is more clarity on US-China trade issue, Brexit and US government shutdown however for the day the bias may be on the downside owing to improved risk sentiment.

ENERGY- Crude Oil- MCX Crude may note some gains tracking cues from international exchange but upside is limited. NYMEX crude trades higher above $53 per barrel after a 1.3% gain yesterday. Supporting crude price is API weekly report which noted an unexpected 0.998 million barrel decline in US crude oil stocks and a smaller than expected rise in gasoline stocks. Also supporting crude price is gains in US equity market and correction in US dollar amid easing worries about US government shutdown and US-China trade dispute. US President Donald Trump said he's open to extending a March 1 deadline to raise tariffs on Chinese products if the two sides are near an agreement. US lawmakers reached a deal in principle to avert another shutdown while President Trump has indicated he may consider the proposal. Also supporting crude price is Saudi�s pledge to cut more output in coming months. Saudi Arabia said it would pump about 9.8 million barrels a day next month, lower than the 10.311 million barrel day limit agreed in the production cut deal. However, weighing on price is downbeat demand outlook and higher US gas production. The US EIA cut its 2019 world oil demand growth forecast by 50,000 barrels per day to 1.49 million bpd to average 101.45 million bpd. EIA also expects US crude oil output to rise 1.45 million bpd this year to record level of 12.41 million bpd. OPEC, in its monthly forecasts, lowered forecast of OPEC demand by 0.2 mn bpd to 30.6 million bpd.

Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may trade with a downward bias tracking cues from international exchange. NYMEX
Natural gas slipped more than 1% to trade near $2.65/mmBtu after a 1.7% gain yesterday. Mixed factors have resulted in mixed trade in gas price. Supporting gas price is forecast of cold weather in US which will increase heating demand. However, market players are concerned that with nearing end of winter season weather related demand may not be strong enough to boost prices. Also supporting price is higher US gas production and expectations of a smaller than average decline in gas stocks. Mixed factors and positioning ahead of inventory report may keep gas price choppy but general bias may be on the downside.

BASE METAL - Base metals on LME trade with a positive bias today after a weaker close yesterday. LME Zinc continued to be the worst performer with 1.4% drop followed by 1% decline in Aluminium prices and 0.7% slide in Copper prices. In other metals Nickel and Lead too ended 0.6% and 0.5% lower respectively.




Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Monday, 11 February 2019




BULLION - MCX Gold and Silver may note mixed trade in line with international market but bias may be on the downside. COMEX gold trades in a narrow range near $1310/oz after a 0.5% decline yesterday. Gold is rangebound as support from concerns about US-China trade talks, US government shutdown threat, Brexit uncertainty and global economic slowdown is countered by persisting strength in US dollar and ETF outflows. The US and China officials will hold trade talks this week but market expectations are low that a deal will be reached ahead of March 1 deadline. As per reports, the Trump administration said the US president still wants to meet China's Xi Jinping in an effort to end the trade war. The US faces a Feb.15 deadline to reach a deal to avert another government shutdown. Reports noted that US congressional negotiators late Monday have reached a deal in principle on border security to avoid another federal government shutdown. Global economic concerns are high amid disappointing Chinese and European economic data and downbeat growth forecasts. The US dollar index rose 0.4% yesterday marking its eight consecutive gains. The US dollar has benefited from safe haven buying amid uncertainty about US-China trade deal, concerns about health of European economies and dovish shift in monetary policy stance of major central banks. Amid other factors, gold has gained support from signs of central bank buying. As per reports, People's Bank of China increased gold holdings for the second month in January after a two-year hiatus. 


ENERGY- Crude Oil- MCX Crude may note some gains tracking cues from international exchange but sell on rise is suggested. NYMEX crude trades marginally higher but in a narrow range above $52 per barrel after a 0.6% decline yesterday. Crude fell as low as low as $51.23/bbl in intraday day trade yesterday but managed to recover and end above $52/bbl. Crude has fallen in last few days after failing to sustain above $55/bbl level however we are yet to see a close below $52/bbl. Mixed factors has resulted in choppy trade in crude oil and this trend could continue in the near term. Crude along with other commodities saw some support from reports that US congressional negotiators have reached a deal in principle on border security to avoid another federal government shutdown. Crude is also supported by OPEC�s adherence to production and supply concerns relating to Venezuela. However, weighing on price is concerns about OPEC-Russia cooperation going ahead, record high US crude production, rise in US crude oil rig count, expectations of another increase in US crude oil stocks, firmness in US dollar and concerns about US-China trade talks. The US and China officials will hold trade talks this week but market expectations are low that a deal will be reached ahead of March 1 deadline. Crude may witness choppy trade amid mixed factors and positioning ahead of inventory report but sell on rise is suggested as global concerns and higher US supply will weigh on price.

Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may note some gains tracking cues from international exchange but upside is limited.
NYMEX natural gas trades higher near $2.65/mmBtu after a 2.3% gain yesterday. Natural gas slumped to Feb.2018 lows last week and is seeing some recovery amid forecast of cold weather in US which will increase heating demand. Natural gas has also gained support from narrow gap between coal and gas price which has increased demand from power sector. Also supporting price is drop in US rig count. However, weighing on price are expectations of subdued demand going ahead as winter nears an end. Subdued demand expectations and higher US production has also eased tightness concerns to some extent. Natural gas has fallen sharply in last few days and we are seeing some relief rally however it could be short-lived. One should wait for higher level to create short positions. Focus will continue to be on US weather and trend in other energy prices.

BASE METAL - Base metals on LME trade mix today after a weaker close yesterday. LME Zinc was the worst performer with 2.2% drop followed by 1.7% decline in Lead prices and 1% slide in Copper prices. In other metals Nickel too ended 0.6% lower while Aluminium was down by modest 0.05%.


Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

 The correction in soybean futures (Mar) may witness a halt & take support in the range of 3750-3700 levels.

    CAPITALSTARS INVESTMENT ADVISOR


The 
sentiments are turning optimistic after the export data highlighted a sharp jump in soybean meal exports to Iran during the period 
April 2018-January 2019 to 2.8 lakh tonnes from 23,000 tonnes last year. In the wake of economic sanctions by the US, Iran 
turned to India to meet its soybean meal requirements. To support this, Iran started accepting payments in Indian currency, used it 
to pay India for imports. The hopes of more exports are rising as Iran could use the opportunity to meet its soybean demand from 
India, because it does not produce enough of the protein-rich soymeal domestically. Mustard futures (Apr) is expected to trade with 
a downside bias & may even test 3900 levels. The prospects of rape meal exports to China amid US-China trade tensions are less 
likely to yield any fruit for Indian oilmeal exports & may not resume during current financial year as procedure for registration with 
MoA, China is too cumbersome, lengthy and time consuming to complete all formalities. CPO futures (Feb) is in the overbought 
region & correction may emerge due to profit booking & also facing resistance near 576 levels. Moreover, the India's January 
imports of palm oil, including crude and refined variants, are seen at around 900,000 tn, up 12.5% from December. Globally, the 
market participants are worried amid pessimism over trade and global growth after the breaking news that President Donald Trump 
won’t meet Chinese President Xi Jinping before a March 1 deadline to avert new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.




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Friday, 8 February 2019

Cotton futures (Feb) is expected to trade sideways in the range of 20570-20780 levels.

 India's cotton crop estimate is further reduced by 5 lakh bales to 330 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) for the season 2018-19. In its January 2019 estimate for India's cotton crop, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) lowered cotton cropestimate for the third time in a row citing water crisis in the growing region. Guar seed futures (Feb) may face resistance near 4240 levels, while guar gum futures (Feb) is expected to remain below 8445 levels. The sentiments are bearish due to lack of fundamentals & lack of clarity in direction of prices, the buyers are staying away from fresh buying. Anticipation of 60% probability of El Niño conditions to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 has induced cautiousness among the market participants. However, one must keep a close look as both the counters are witnessing consolidation & open interest is declining, giving an indication of a possible trend reversal. Chana futures (Mar) is expected to trade higher taking support neat 4240 levels. Chana priced traded higher at major markets in the country following firm cues from futures, fresh physical trade activity at lower rates. Flour millers were also active in purchasing chana due to cheaper prices and easy availability compared to White Pea. Rain was reported today in many parts of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Haryana and is beneficial for standing crop of Chana. 

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