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Showing posts with label Free Intraday Tips. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Free Intraday Tips. Show all posts

Friday, 15 February 2019

Soybean futures (Mar) may face resistance near 3785 levels & trade with a negative bias.


India’s soybean output is likely to rise by a staggering 38 per cent this year on a sharp increase in average yield across the country, following favourable climatic condition in major cultivating states including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Data captured through the latest assessment of farmers, traders and other stakeholders by the apex industry body the SoybeanProcessors’ Association (SOPA) showed India’s total soybean output standing at 11.48 million tonnes during the ongoing harvesting season as compared to 8.36 million tonnes in the previous season. Mustard futures (Apr) is expected to consolidate in the range of 3920-3960 levels. Heavy rains and hailstorms that lashed north-western India last week have caused damage to the oilseed. Ref. soy oil futures (Mar) is expected to trade with a negative bias facing resistance near 762 levels. CPO futures (Feb) may fall further & test 553 levels. Vegetable oil imports for the period from November 2018 to January 2019 stood at 36,20,316 tonnes — nearly flat as compared to what was reported in the same period last year. According to the data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), imports of palm oils — including RBD Palmolein and CPO — touched 23.18 lakh tonnes (lt), up from 22.74 lt reported in the same period last year. In news, The U.S. soybean processing pace slowed slightly in January from the previous month, although the crush was still the largest on record for the first month of the year, according to analysts polled ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report. The monthly NOPA report will be released at 11 a.m. CST (1700 GMT) on Friday.


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Thursday, 14 February 2019

MCX Updates


BULLION - MCX Gold and Silver may note mixed trade in line with international market but selling could be seen at higher levels. COMEX gold trades in a narrow range near $1315/oz after yesterday�s minor 0.1% decline. Gold trades in a range as market players await more clarity in US-China trade talks and US government shutdown. US-China trade talks are continuing today however news sources reported that both sides remained deadlocked on key issues. If there are no signs of a deal, safe haven demand for gold may rise however it will also push US dollar higher limiting gains in gold. The US House and Senate on Thursday approved a spending bill aimed at averting a government shutdown and sent it to President Donald Trump. It is likely that President Trump may approve the bill to avert another shutdown and this could lend support to US dollar. Amid other factors, gold remains supported by central bank buying, Fed�s dovish stance, disappointing US economic data and Brexit uncertainty. Prime Minister Theresa May lost another round of Brexit voting in Parliament. The divide in British Parliament will make it difficult for UK Prime Minister to renegotiate the Brexit deal with EU. US retail sales stumbled 1.2% in December, the largest decline since September 2009. ETF outflows however show weaker investor interest. Gold holdings with SPCR ETF were unchanged at 796.854 tonnes yesterday, lowest since Jan.8. Gold has witnessed listless trade in last few days and this will continue unless there is clarity on major issues. We however may see selling at higher levels if US dollar manages to hold its gains.

ENERGY- Crude Oil- MCX Crude Oil may note some gains tracking cues from international exchange however upside is limited. NYMEX crude trades higher above $54 per barrel after a 0.9% gain yesterday. Crude trades higher supported by tightening supply outlook amid OPEC�s production cut deal and supply concerns relating to Venezuela. Saudi has indicated willingness to extend production cuts further next month. Meanwhile, Russia's Energy Minister said it would accelerate output cuts agreed to in a deal. Russia expects production at about 11.3 million barrels a day as against target of 11.191 mn bpd. However, weighing on crude price is higher US production and demand concerns amid weakening outlook for major economies. Disappointing US economic data released yesterday rekindled worries about health of the economy and brought a halt to recent gains in US equity market. Chinese inflation data released today also disappointed. Equity markets have turned choppy also as market players awaits more clarity on US-China trade deal and US government shutdown. US-China trade talks are continuing today however news sources reported that both sides remained deadlocked on key issues. The US House and Senate on Thursday approved a spending bill aimed at averting a government shutdown and sent it to President Donald Trump. Crude has witnessed a sharp rebound in last few sessions however the gains will be challenged by concerns about health of US and Chinese economy.

Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may trade with a negative bias in line with international market. NYMEX natural gas trades weaker near $2.56/mmBtu after a 0.1% decline yesterday. Weighing on gas price is EIA weekly report which noted a 78 Bcf decline in US natural gas stocks as against expectations of 85 Bcf decline and 5-year average decline of 160 Bcf. A smaller than average drop in gas stocks has reduced the deficit to some extent. However, supporting gas price is forecast of cold weather in US which will increase heating demand. Natural gas may remain under pressure amid easing supply concerns however we do not expect a sustained drop and price could take support near $2.5/mmBtu levels. Focus today will be on US weather and weekly rig activity report.

BASE METAL - Base metals on LME trade sideways to lower after noting volatile movement yesterday. LME Lead was the best performer with 0.8% gains followed by modest 0.2% gains in Copper prices. In other metals however Nickel ended 1.65% lower while Aluminium and Zinc closed 0.5% and 0.2% lower respectively. Nickel can take support near 865 and can recover towards 885. Aluminum prices may find some support near 130.



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Wednesday, 13 February 2019

Turmeric futures (Apr) is expected to take support near 6280 levels & witness short covering taking positive cues from the spot markets. 


The arrival of turmeric has been increased on Tuesday. The upcountry demand is expected within a fortnight. The market participants are expecting the arrival of the new Erode Turmeric by the first week of March, when abundant demand from North India may be received by the traders. Jeera futures (Mar) is expected to rally towards 15700-15800 levels, taking support near 15540. Spot jeera prices continued to rule steady at major markets in Gujarat in limited trade on Tuesday id matching demand and supply. This season, Gujarat has witnessed lower sowing, but due to cool weather persisting for a longer time, the yields are expected to get better. In Rajasthan, the climatic conditions are also proving to be beneficial for the standing crop & hence the production is likely to be higher. Coriander futures (Apr) is expected to plunge towards 6000-5900 levels. Spot coriander prices are trading with a bearish bias at major markets in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan due to heavy arrivals from the ample old stocks. While, prices quoted lower by Rs.20 per 20kg at major markets in Gujarat due to increased arrivals & having higher moisture content. On the other hand, there was no report of new crop arrival in Madhya Pradesh.


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Tuesday, 12 February 2019

Cotton futures (Feb) is likely to witness a bounce back amid lower level buying taking support near 20400. 

The statistics of lower output this season may lend cushion to the prices. In its latest estimates, the Cotton Association of India has further trimmed the crop size by 5 lakh bales to 330 lakh bales of 170 kg each for season 2018-19. This estimated crop size is the lowest in a decade. Guar seed futures (Mar) may face resistance near 4300 levels, while guar gum futures (Mar) is expected to remain below 8500-8550 levels. The week-on-week declining ratio of guar seed to guar gum is depicting the fact that demand for these commodities are decreasing. Chana futures (Mar) is expected to take support near 4210 levels. Thecounter is trading higher at major markets in the country following firm cues from fresh physical trade activity at lower rates. Flour millers are actively purchasingchana due to cheaper prices and easy availability compared to White Pea. Moreover, the Cold waves and untimely rains may further damage the standing crop. Mentha oil (Feb) is likely to trade with a positive bias & may even rally up to test 1610, taking support near 1570 levels. Overall, sentiments are bullish as delayed sowing in the state is likely to affect the crop yield. As per reports, farmers are now worried as untimely rains and inclement weather conditions have delayed the sowing in key producing belts. The production is likely to be badly affected if weather conditions don't improve in the next few days.


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Monday, 11 February 2019

Cotton futures (Feb) is likely to witness a bounce back amid lower level buying taking support near 20400. 

 The statistics of lower output this season may lend cushion to the prices. In its latest estimates, the Cotton Association of India has further trimmed the crop size by 5 lakh bales to 330 lakh bales of 170 kg each for season 2018-19. This estimated crop size is the lowest in a decade. Guar seed futures (Mar) may show more sign of weakness & may even break the strong support near 4150 to test 4100-4050 levels, while guar gum futures (Mar) is expected to plunge further towards 8100 levels. The week-onweek declining ratio of guar seed to guar gum is depicting the fact that demand for these commodities are decreasing. Chana futures (Mar) is expected to show an upside momentum towards 4350, as soon as it surpasses the resistance near 4295 levels. The counter is trading higher at major markets in the country following firm cues from fresh physical trade activity at lower rates. Flour millers are actively purchasing chana due to cheaper prices and easy availability compared to White Pea. Moreover, the Cold waves and untimely rains may further damage the standing crop. Mentha oil (Feb) is likely to trade with a positive bias & may even rally up to test 1610, taking support near 1560 levels. Overall, sentiments are bullish as delayed sowing in the state is likely to affect the crop yield. As per reports, farmers are now worried as untimely rains and inclement weather conditions have delayed the sowing in key producing belts. The production is likely to be badly affected if weather conditions don't improve in the next few days.


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Thursday, 7 February 2019

mcx updates

BULLION - MCX Gold and Silver may note mixed trade in line with international market but bias may be on the downside for the day. COMEX gold trades in a narrow range above $1310/oz after yesterday�s flat close. Gold fell as low as $1306.4/oz in intraday trade yesterday but recovered to end at $1314.2/oz. Gold recovered from lows as global economic concerns led to sell-off in US equity market and increased demand for safe haven assets like gold, yen and bonds. Market sentiments are mired by uncertainty about US-China trade deal, Brexit concerns and possibility of another US government shutdown. Reports noted that President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping was "highly unlikely" before the March 1 deadline set by the US for reaching a trade deal. Meanwhile, central banks have lowered growth forecasts and shifted monetary policy stance to support the economy. Bank of England said it expected the UK economy to grow at its slowest pace in a decade. European commission also made downward revisions to most of the region's major economies. Australia central bank shifted to a dovish stance while Indian central bank undertook a rate cut. However, weighing on gold is firmness in US dollar and ETF outflows. The US dollar index has edged up against European currencies amid disappointing European economic data, concerns about Brexit and downbeat central bank outlook. The upside is US dollar however remains in a check by mixed US economic data and Fed�s patient rate hike stance. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Fed should tread carefully going forward. ETF outflows also show weaker investor interest. Gold holdings with SDPR ETF fell for the fifth consecutive day Thursday to 803.29 tonnes. Gold may witness mixed trade as support from global uncertainty is countered by US dollar gains but some correction is likely.

ENERGY- Crude Oil- MCX Crude may note some decline tracking cues from international exchange. NYMEX crude trades weaker near $52 per barrel after a sharp 2.5% slide yesterday. NYMEX crude rallied over 30% from recent lows and tested $55 per barrel however the rally ran out of steam amid lack of fresh positive triggers. Crude oil came under pressure amid disappointing economic data from major economies, gains in US dollar and halt in recent rise in US equity market. Market sentiments are mired by uncertainty about US-China trade deal, Brexit concerns and possibility of another US government shutdown. Concerns about trade deal rose amid reports that President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping was "highly unlikely" before the March 1 deadline set by the US for reaching a trade deal. Central bank comments have also rekindled global worries. Bank of England said it expected the UK economy to grow at its slowest pace in a decade. 

Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may note some gains tracking cues from international exchange but overall bias remains on the downside. NYMEX natural gas has edged up to trade near $2.58/mmBtu after a sharp 4.2% slide yesterday. Natural gas hit a low of $2.549/mmBtu in intraday trade yesterday, the lowest level since Feb.2018. Weighing on gas price are mixed weather forecasts which indicate that heating demand may remain low. US EIA weekly report noted a 237 Bcf decline in US natural gas stocks which was much higher than 5-year average decline of 150 Bcf and widened the deficit over 5-year average stocks to 17.5% however it has little price impact as the trend is not expected to continue going ahead. Natural gas may remain under pressure on subdued demand expectations however we could see some short covering move ahead of weekend position squaring. Focus today will be on US weather and weekly rig activity report.

BASE METAL - Base metals on LME trade with a weaker bias today after noting mixed movement yesterday. LME Aluminium was the worst performer with 0.7% decline followed by 0.5% drop in Copper and Lead prices. In other metals Zinc and Nickel ended 1% and 0.5% higher respectively.



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Monday, 7 January 2019




BULLION-
MCX Gold and Silver may note choppy trade in line with the international market but the overall bias is on the upside. COMEX gold trades mixed near $1290/oz after a 0.3% gain yesterday. Gold has turned choppy after testing $1300/oz level for the first time since June 2018. The rally in gold price came to a halt amid improved risk sentiment. Progress over US-China trade talks, upbeat US labour data, Feds patient stance on interest rate hikes and Chinas move to cut reserve requirement rate helped global equity market stabilize. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said there's a "very good chance" the US gets a reasonable deal with China. ETF outflows also show some profit taking in gold. Gold holdings with SPDR ETF fell by 1.47 tonnes to 796.78 tonnes. However, supporting price is the weaker outlook for US dollar amid Feds cautious tone on US economy and patient stance on interest rate hikes. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the US central bank should only raise interest rates once this year but keep going with its plan to gradually shrink the balance sheet. While risk sentiment has improved, global uncertainty persists amid a slowdown in the Chinese economy, US government shutdown and Brexit uncertainty. Gold may witness mixed trade as market players await fresh cues. However, we maintain buy on dips view as US dollar is likely to remain choppy while risk sentiment may not improve significantly. COMEX Silver trades weaker near $15.7/oz amid rangebound movement in gold and weakness in industrial metals. Gold has turned choppy amid lack of fresh cues. Industrial metals are pressurized by concerns about the Chinese economy. ETF outflows also show weaker investor interest. Silver holdings with iShares ETF fell by 72.98 tonnes to 9790.1 tonnes, lowest since June 2018. The spot gold-silver ratio rose from 81.9 to 82.4 as silver ended lower yesterday. 

BASE METAL - Basemetal on LME trade sideways to lower today after ending on a higher note yesterday. LME Zinc was the top performer with 2.5% gains following a 0.7% rise in Aluminum prices and 0.4% gains in Nickel prices. In other metals, Copper and Lead too ended modestly higher. The metals pack trades sideways to lower in early trades today after two days of gains amid caution ahead of US-China trade talks outcome. Markets are in a wait and watch mode as they await the outcome of US-China trade talks. The Trump administration has expressed optimism it can reach a reasonable trade deal with China as President Xi Jinping dispatched one of his top aides to negotiations in Beijing. Also putting pressure on the prices is demand worries especially from top consumer China along with and a mixed trend in the global equity market. 


ENERGY -Crude Oil- MCX Crude may note choppy trade in line with international prices but overall bias may be on the upside. NYMEX crude trades mixed near $48.5/bbl after a 1.2% gain yesterday. Crude hit a session high of $49.79/bbl yesterday but retreated to end the day at $48.52/bbl. Crude has rallied more than 15% from recent lows amid lower output from OPEC and recovery in the US equity market. OPECs production fell last month while OPEC and allies have promised adherence to the 1.2 million barrels per day cut deal which will run from January to June. US and global equity market recovered amid upbeat US labour data, Chinas move to cut reserve requirement and progress over US-China trade talks. Also supporting crude is decline in US crude oil rig count which indicates weakening production interest. Early forecasts indicate that US weekly report may note a 1.1 million barrels decline in US crude oil stocks. While crude has recovered sharply from recent lows, the rally will be challenged by higher US output and demand concerns amid uncertainty about US and Chinese economy. US crude production is at record high level and is expected to rise further. Concerns about US economy are high amid mixed economic data, continuing government shutdown and impact on corporate earnings from trade war and higher interest rates. Chinese economic data continues to show a slowdown in the economy. Crude may witness choppy trade amid lack of fresh cues but general improvement in risk sentiment and lower OPEC supply will
support price.Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may note mixed trade in line with the international market but sell on rising is suggested. NYMEX natural gas trades marginally higher near $2.96/mmBtu after a 3.3% decline yesterday. Lack of fresh cues has resulted in some short covering in natural gas. However, weighing on price is a forecast of mild weather in US which will keep a check on heating demand. Also weighing on price is expectations of another smaller than average decline in gas stocks which will further ease tightness concerns. Natural gas may witness choppy trade amid lack of fresh cues but slack demand expectations may keep the pressure on price. The focus will be on US weather and trend in energy prices. 


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