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Showing posts with label Free commodity tips. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Free commodity tips. Show all posts

Saturday, 18 August 2018

NCDEX Oct Soybean edged higher on Thursday mainly on fresh buying initiated by the market participants on good meal exports. The government has increased the export incentives on soymeal to 10% of the free - on - board value from the current 7% till Mar 31. According to the latest report by the Soybean Processors' Association of India, India's soymeal exports rose 12% on year to 102,000 in July. Soymeal exports in August are expected to double on year to over 100,000 to due to robust demand from European countries. There was strong demand from Bangladesh, France, and Israel boosting export of the oilmeal. The area under soybean in the country increased by 9 % at 11.1 lakh ha as of last week compared to last year sowing, according to data released by the farm ministry.
Outlook
Soybean futures are expected to trade sideways to higher due to higher crushing demand due to increase the incentives for soy meal exports. However, the expectation of good area this season due to the forecast of normal rains is keeping the prices

Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.

Wednesday, 15 August 2018



Gold hits more than 18-month low as dollar gains on Turkey troubles. 

Gold fell to a more than 18-month low on Wednesday as the dollar climbed towards its highest in over a year on concerns about global market contagion triggered by recent declines in the Turkish lira. Further gold liquidation from emerging markets to strengthen local currencies also pressured bullion, several traders said. The advancing dollar and worries of continued oversupply also pushed platinum and palladium to their lowest since October 2008 and July 2017 respectively. Bullion has declined about 9 percent this year, pressured by rising U.S. interest rates, a soaring dollar and failure to capitalize on its traditional role as a hedge against global uncertainties. investors have opted for U.S. Treasuries, seen as the ultimate safe haven, which meant they had to buy dollars, while bearish sentiment on gold led to liquidations in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a record level of short positions.

Copper Tumbles into a Bear Market.

 Copper plunged into a bear market as concerns mount that Turkey’s financial crisis and the U.S.-China trade spat will stymie global economic growth. The red metal for delivery in three months fell 4 percent to settle at $5,801 a metric ton at 5:52 p.m. Wednesday on the London Metal Exchange. That’s a more-than 20 percent drop from its high of $7,332 a ton in June, meeting the common definition of a bear market. Copper has posted four straight daily losses, dropping to the lowest in more than a year. Losses on Wednesday were triggered by a broad retreat in China as the Yuan weakened and recent data showed the economy hit a rough patch. We expect nickel prices to continue their weak and range bound pattern today. LME nickel slumped over 4%, breaking through $13,000/mt to a low of $12,770/mt, and closed at $12,880 yuan/mt on Wednesday. The SHFE 1811 contract fell past 108,000 yuan/mt to a low of 107,110 yuan/mt before it slightly rebounded and closed at 107,910 yuan/mt overnight.

We expect nickel prices to continue their weak and range bound pattern today.

LME nickel slumped over 4%, breaking through $13,000/mt to a low of $12,770/mt, and closed at $12,880 yuan/mt on Wednesday. The SHFE 1811 contract fell past 108,000 yuan/mt to a low of 107,110 yuan/mt before it slightly rebounded and closed at 107,910 yuan/mt overnight. We expect nickel prices to continue their weak and range bound pattern today. LME nickel is likely to hover around $12,800/mt and the SHFE 1811 contract at 106,500-108,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 107,000-109,000 yuan/mt.

Oil edges up as China, U.S. set for trade talks 

Oil prices on Thursday recouped some of the previous day's losses after Beijing said it would send a delegation to Washington to try to resolve trade disputes between the United States and China that have roiled global markets. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were weaker, trading down 8 cents at $64.93 a barrel amid rising U.S. crude production and storage levels. Both benchmarks lost more than 2 percent the previous day. said Thursday's markets were pushed up by news that a Chinese delegation led by Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen will hold talks with U.S. representatives led by Under Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs David Malpass later in August. and the United States have implemented several rounds of tit-for-tat tariffs on each others goods since the start of the year and have threatened further tariffs on exports worth hundreds of billions of dollars.


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.

BULLION:-
Gold prices on Thursday hit their lowest in more than 19 months, with the US dollar holding steady near a recent peak as concerns about a Turkey crisis and China’s economic health weighed on emerging market currencies. The United States on Wednesday ruled out removing steel tariffs that have contributed to a currency crisis in Turkey even if Ankara frees a U.S. pastor, as Qatar pledged $15 billion in investment to Turkey, supporting a rise in the Turkish lira. The United States on Wednesday imposed sanctions on a Russian port service agency and Chinese firms for aiding North Korean ships and selling alcohol and tobacco to Pyongyang in breach of U.S. sanctions aimed at pressuring North Korea to end its nuclear programs. Some emerging market countries pared their holdings of U.S. Treasuries in June, data from the U.S. Treasury department showed on Wednesday, in what analysts viewed as a move to support their currencies as the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates this year. U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in July as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and clothing, suggesting the economy remained strong early in the third quarter. China’s state planner pledged on Wednesday to keep debt levels under control even as Beijing rolls out fresh stimulus to support the stumbling economy as a trade war with the U.S. deepens.

METALS:-
Copper prices fell to a fresh 13-month low after data showed fixed-asset investment in China slowed to a nearly two-decade low in the first seven months of the year. A strike had been averted at the world's largest copper mine put a cap on hopes of recovery for the bellwether metal. Reuters reported that management at Chile’s Escondida, said it struck a deal on Wednesday on a new labor contract with the union representing most of its workers. Large rises in zinc stocks stored in LME-approved warehouses have created $16 a tonne discount between the cash and threemonth contracts from a premium of about $60 a tonne at the end of July. LME stocks, at 256,175 tonnes, have jumped more than 10 percent since last week. China’s primary aluminium production climbed 12 percent in July from the same period a year ago, equalling its monthly record, as new smelters took output back towards levels before capacity closures in mid-2017. According to Japan's Ministry of Finance, Japan's Merchandise Trade Balance contracted by much more than expected, sinking to ¥-231.2 billion compared to the expected ¥-41.2 billion. The prior trade balance was ¥720.8 billion. The adjusted trade balance also missed and printed in contraction, coming in at ¥-45.6 billion versus the expected ¥20.7 billion surplus. Exports sank to 3.9% y/y compared to the forecast 6.3%; previous was 6.7%. Imports surged to 14.6% y/y, last was 2.6%. Exports to the US declined in July by 5.2% y/y, while exports to China lifted 11.9% y/y.

ENERGY:-

Oil prices plunged after government data showed a big, unexpected jump in stockpiles of U.S. crude, compounding pressure as the outlook for global economic growth darkened and the stock market slumped. After the American Petroleum Institute surprised markets by reporting a build of 3.66 million barrels for the week ending August 10, the Energy Information Administration confirmed a build, but reported that it had been significantly bigger at 6.8 million barrels. The EIA reported that at 414.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are a bit above the five-year average for the season. In gasoline, inventories were down by 700,000 barrels last week, compared with a build of 2.9 million barrels a week earlier but slightly above the seasonal average. Gasoline production averaged 10.2 million bpd, from 9.9 million bpd the week before last. Distillate inventories added 3.6 million barrels last week, after a build of 1.2 million barrels in the prior week, with production averaging 5.3 million bpd, up by 100,000 bpd on the previous week. Meanwhile, the market is worrying about supply from Venezuela and preparing for the last round of U.S. sanctions against Iran, which will target its oil industry specifically. Some oil bulls are preparing for oil prices of US$150 and even US$200, Reuters reported yesterday, citing prominent hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand and Jean-Louis Mee, chief executive of Westbeck Capital.


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.

Monday, 13 August 2018


Gold below $1,200 as Turkey tremors boost dollar. 

GOLD broke through the 1,200 mark yesterday for the first time since March 2017 as it continued to be pressured by the dollar’s steady rise on safe haven flows. In the latest data from CFTC as at August 7, short positions built up by speculative traders were at their highest since data began in 2006, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Overall however, net positioning is still long by 12,688 contracts, which is still the least since December 2015. Many commodities are falling victim to the dollar’s strength as risk-aversion trades gain popularity.

COPPER markets continue to be plagued by the threat of strike action at some of the world’s largest mines.

 Copper markets continue to be plagued by the threat of strike action at some of the world’s largest mines. BHP is waiting to hear the response to its sweetened offer to workers at its Escondido mine in hopes of averting a strike, while strikers at the Caserones mine are set to go on strike on August 14 if mediation fails. Despite these potential supply disruptions, copper is struggling to gain any kind of foothold with a one-day spike higher on August 9 beaten back the following day. The base metal is facing its third straight down day and is now at 2.7102. The July 19 low of 2.6501 could be the next support level.

We expect nickel prices to continue their weak performance today. 

LME nickel lost all the gains it made last week and closed at $13,535/mt on Monday. The SHFE 1811 contract overnight plummeted past the 20-day moving average to 111,330 yuan/mt after its initial, mild gains. It then recovered some losses and closed at 112,030 yuan/mt. We expect nickel prices to continue their weak performance today. LME nickel is likely to hover around $13,600/mt and the SHFE 1811 contract is likely to trade at 112,000-113,800 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 112,000-114,000 yuan/mt..

Oil dips as trade tensions drag; Iran sanctions provide some support.

 Oil prices are on the defensive with WTI sliding to a seven-week low overnight as markets consider the broader impact of the meltdown in the Turkish currency and economy. Additional pressure has come from the dollar’s bid bias as a safe haven stronghold, while a weekend IEA oil market report predicted that global demand for oil would slacken for the rest of this year before reviving next year. The combined downward pressure was strong enough to overcome reports that Saudi Arabia’s production has been scaled back in July even as Iran sanctions kick in..


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.


BULLION:-

Gold prices traded steady on Tuesday, but hovered close to an 18-month low hit in the previous session. Gold prices sank below $1,200 per ounce on Monday to their lowest since late January 2017, losing out to U.S. Treasuries and a strong dollar as investors sought refuge from a financial market rout triggered by a crashing Turkish lira. Investors traditionally use gold as a means of preserving the value of their assets during times of political and economic uncertainty and inflation, but it has this year failed to benefit. Instead investors have made a beeline for U.S. Treasuries, seen as the ultimate safe haven, which meant they had to buy dollars. The lira has tumbled on worries over Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s increasing control over the economy and deteriorating relations with the United States. An investor flight to safety lifted U.S. Treasury yields from four weeks lows. The dollar index touched a 13-month high before paring gains. The higher greenback makes dollar-denominated assets more expensive for holders of other currencies, which subdues demand - a relationship used by funds to generate buy and sell signals from numerical models. Holdings of the largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF), New York’s SPDR Gold Trust, at 25.3 million ounces have dropped about 10 percent from their April peak and are at their lowest since February 2016.

BASE METALS:-

London copper prices drifted lower for a third straight session on Tuesday as the dollar stood tall versus other currencies on concerns that a rout in the Turkish lira could infect European banks and emerging economies. he Turkish lira was trading at 6.9100 per dollar in early Asian deals on Tuesday, compared with Monday’s record low of 7.24 after the central bank pledged to provide liquidity. The lira has lost more than 40 percent this month on concerns about President Tayyip Erdogan’s reluctance to raise interest rates despite rising inflation and a deepening diplomatic rift with the United States. Chinese industrial production and fixed asset investment growth came in below forecasts in July, with the latter falling to a record low as retail sales also disappointed. Fixed asset investment grew 5.5 per cent for the first seven months of the year, compared to the same period last year. A median forecast from economists polled by Reuters had forecast 6 per cent growth, in line with the previous month. The latest reading was the lowest on record, according to official data compiled by Wind Info and dating back to 1992.The slowdown in investment comes despite Beijing last month announcing a series of tax cuts and infrastructure spending in a bid to stimulate demand after the country's gross domestic product grew at its slowest pace since 2016 in the second quarter.

ENERGY:-


Oil prices rose on Tuesday after a report from OPEC confirmed that top exporter Saudi Arabia had cut production to avert looming oversupply. In July, Saudi Arabia told the producer group of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that it had cut production by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 10.288 million bpd. OPEC’s monthly report published on Monday, which uses data from secondary sources, confirmed the Saudi cut, which traders said triggered crude’s upward move early on Tuesday. That came despite the Saudi move coming in anticipation of a slowdown in oil demand. The OPEC report said it expected world oil demand to grow by 1.43 million bpd in 2019, down from 1.64 million bpd in 2018. OPEC said the demand slowdown would come on the back of potentially lower economic growth as a result of trade disputes between the United States and China as well as emerging market turmoil. Despite this, OPEC said overall oil demand would likely remain healthy. Chinese oil refinery output rose 11.6 percent in July from a year earlier, government data showed on Tuesday, with state-run plants operating at high rates but smaller independent refiners struggling with squeezed profit margins. Refinery throughput last month reached 50.95 million tonnes, or 11.95 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics. That compared to 12.11 million bpd in June.


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.

Nothing bullish happening for Gold Right Now.

In other words, when it comes to a segment as volatile and sentiment-dependent as the precious metals, we are in the kill zone. That can be read a couple of different ways. First, the inflationist gold bugs are getting exterminated as the US dollar first rose and since have stubbornly refused to take a pullback. But the time to buy the gold sector is pretty reliably when the bugs are dead or at least hiding deep in the woodwork; so deep that you’d not even know they are still there. Just as you should have caution when gold bugs are trumpeting loudly, you should be brave when they are in full retreat… or worse, dead. So the ‘Kill Zone’ can also be viewed as an opportunity, like when a target is “in the kill zone”; and from the perspective of the following charts and graphics, the sector is in that zone now.

Copper failed to climb above the $6,200/mt level and fell to near $6,150/mt on Friday in LME.

LME copper failed to climb above the $6,200/mt level and fell to near $6,150/mt on Friday while the SHFE 1810 contract hovered at 49,600-49,850 yuan/mt. Open interest for SHFE copper rebounded above 600,000 lots. We expect LME copper to trade at $6,120-6,170/mt today with the SHFE 1810 contract at 49,350-49,800 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 20-60 yuan/mt.

As the dollar strengthened nickel fell down. 

As the dollar strengthened, LME nickel on Friday tumbled past the 20-day moving average to $13,625/mt before it recovered some losses and closed at $13,805/mt. The SHFE 1811 contract on Friday night opened lower, hovered at just above its daily moving average and closed at 113,210 yuan/mt. We expect LME nickel to hover around $13,800/mt today and the SHFE 1811 contract to trade at 112,500-113,500 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 111,800-114,000 yuan/mt.

Oil dips as trade tensions drag; Iran sanctions provide some support.

Oil prices dipped on Tuesday as rising trade tensions dented the outlook for fuel demand growth especially in Asia, although U.S. sanctions against Iran still pointed towards tighter supply. Signs of slowing economic growth and lower fuel demand increases, especially in Asia's large emerging markets are weighing on the oil markets. growth from Asia in general is being called into question. This due to the negative impact of trade wars, a stronger dollar and rising funding costs," Ole Hansen, head of the commodity strategy at Denmark's Saxo Bank, said in a note late last week. the gloomy outlook for trade and the potential slowdown in economic growth, oil markets are expected to remain relatively tight, particularly as U.S. sanctions on Iran have started. U.S. energy companies last week added the most oil rigs since May, adding 10 rigs to bring the total count to 869, according to the Baker Hughes energy services firm.


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.
 

Friday, 10 August 2018


Gold prices buoyed by global political tensions.

Gold prices held broadly steady early on Friday after dipping the session before, drawing some support from global political tensions and a slightly weaker dollarNSE -0.88 % against the yen. Japan economy expanded at an annualised rate of 1.9 per cent in April-June, bouncing back from a contraction in the previous quarter, government data showed on Friday, in a sign its recovery momentum remained intact. The US economy is performing "very well" with continued growth clearing the way for one or two more interest rate hikes in 2018, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Thursday in an interview in which he dismissed earlier worries about weak inflation.

Copper prices came off from early highs overnight as market sentiment was depressed by the strengthening dollar.

Copper prices came off from early highs overnight as market sentiment was depressed by the strengthening dollar. LME copper hit the $6,300/mt level but closed near $6,200/mt; the SHFE 1810 contract jumped past the 50,000 yuan/mt level but closed near 49,850 yuan/mt. We expect copper prices to rise in the short term, but the upward room would be limited. LME copper is likely to trade at $6,180-6,240/mt today and the SHFE 1810 contract at 49,600-50,100 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen lower at 10-50 yuan/mt.

Nickel fell sharply to a low of $13,845/mt on a strengthened US dollar.

 LME nickel fell sharply to a low of $13,845/mt on a strengthened US dollar. It closed over 1% lower from Wednesday at $13,905/mt. We see it hovering around $13,800/mt today with continued pressure at the 40-day moving average today. The SHFE 1811 contract diverged gradually from the daily moving average to a low of 113,340 yuan/mt. It then stopped falling and closed at 113,770 yuan/mt. Limited upward momentum is seen for the contract, which is likely to trade at 113,000-114,500 yuan/mt today. Spot prices are set at 112,800-115,000 yuan/mt.

Oil edges up on Iran sanctions tightening supply, but trade spat weighs.

Oil prices on Friday edged up on worries that reimposed U.S. sanctions against Iran would tighten supplies, although the escalating trade dispute between Washington and Beijing held markets back from further gains. Despite the possibility of a slowdown in economic growth due to escalating trade tensions, oil markets are for now relatively tight, analysts said, mostly because of sanctions on Iranian oil exports the United States plan to implement in November. many other powers, including the European Union and major Asian buyers such as China and India oppose sanctions, many are expected to bow to American pressure. On a weekly basis, Brent is set for a 1.5 to 2 percent fall, while WTI is heading for a drop of around 2.5 percent.


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.

Thursday, 9 August 2018


BULLION :-

Gold prices held broadly steady early on Friday after dipping the session before, drawing some support from global political tensions and a slightly weaker dollar against the yen. Japan’s economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.9 percent in April-June, bouncing back from a contraction in the previous quarter, government data showed on Friday, in a sign its recovery momentum remained intact. Asian stock markets fell on Friday amid heightened global trade tensions, while currency markets were whipsawed by a searing selloff in Russia’s ruble after the United States slapped on new sanctions, and as economic worries sent the Turkish lira tumbling. Russia condemned a new round of U.S. sanctions as illegal on Thursday and said it had begun working on retaliatory measures after news of the curbs pushed the ruble to two-year lows over fears Moscow was locked in a spiral of never-ending sanctions. Turkey’s lira tumbled to another record low against the dollar on Thursday after a Turkish delegation returned from meeting U.S. officials in Washington with no apparent solution to a diplomatic rift that has opened up between them. North Korea on Thursday denounced U.S. calls for enforcing international sanctions despite its goodwill moves and said progress on denuclearization promises could not be expected if Washington followed an “outdated acting script”. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting that a strong economy was helping the labor market weather ongoing trade tensions between the United States and a host of other countries.

ENERGY :-

Crude oil futures were largely stable during mid-morning trade in Asia Friday as expectations of rising supply balanced global trade tensions, keeping prices largely unchanged after a mid-week decline. Prices retreated Wednesday after the release of data showing a smaller-than expected fall in US crude inventories and a build in US product inventories, but rising trade tensions between US and China and increasing output by OPEC producer Iraq was keeping prices in a tight range Friday. In response to the latest round of US tariffs on Chinese imports, China Wednesday announced it would impose a 25% tariff on $16 billion worth of US goods from August 23. This is expected to include US gasoline and diesel. In Iraq, crude oil production hit a 13-month high in July at 4.46 million b/d, the country's State Oil Marketing Organization said Thursday. Iraq has consistently reported production above 4.36 million b/d since last September. The totals include output from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government. Iraq said it exported 3.875 million b/d in July, up 25,000 b/d from June, and the highest level since January 2017. Iraq reported its highest crude oil production in 13 months in July to 4.46 million b/d, underpinning market-watchers' anticipation over potentially stronger supplies into H2 2018.

METALS :-

Copper prices moved higher in Shanghai and London in early Asian trade on Friday and were set to end the week in positive territory as the prospect of strikes at copper mines in Chile, including Escondida, the world’s largest, drew nearer. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange nudged up 0.2 percent to $6,212.50 a tonne, as of 0116 GMT, extending a 0.8 percent gain in the previous session. The main union at Chile’s Caserones copper mine said on Wednesday that a last round of labor negotiations with mine operator Lumina Copper had broken down and that a strike was imminent. Three-month aluminum on the LME was up 1 percent at $2,089 a tonne, after ending down 1.3 percent in the previous session on profit-taking. ShFE aluminum was down 0.6 percent at 14,665 yuan a tonne. On-warrant stocks of aluminum available to the market in LME-registered warehouses have fallen to 832,775 tonnes, the lowest since 2007, supporting prices.


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.

Precious Metals

CS GOLD (OCT) OVERVIEW: TREND : SIDEWAYS RESIST
 2: 29760 RESIST
1: 29690 SUP
1: 29530 SUP
2: 29430
CS SILVER (SEP) OVERVIEW: TREND : SIDEWAYS RESIST
 2: 38240 RESIST
1: 38100 SUP
 1: 37790 SUP
2: 37600

Base Metals 
CS COPPER (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : SIDEWAYS RESIST 
2: 424.00 RESIST
1: 421.00 SUP
 1: 416.00 SUP
 2: 413.00
 CS NICKEL (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : BULLISH RESIST
 2: 969.00 RESIST
1: 964.00 SUP
1: 953.00 SUP
 2: 947.00
 CS ZINC (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : BEARISH RESIST
 2: 183.00 RESIST
1: 182.00 SUP
1: 180.00 SUP
2: 179.00
CS LEAD (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : SIDEWAYS RESIST
 2: 148.50 RESIST
 1: 147.50 SUP
1: 145.50 SUP
2: 144.50
CS ALUMINIUM (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : BULLISH RESIST 
2: 142.00 RESIST
1: 140.50 SUP
1: 138.50 SUP
 2: 137.50
Energies 
CS CRUDE OIL (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : BEARISH RESIST 
2: 4650 RESIST
1: 4630 SUP
1: 4520 SUP 2: 4470
CS NATURAL GAS (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : BULLISH RESIST
 2: 205.50 RESIST
1: 204.00 SUP
1: 199.50 SUP
 2: 197.00

MCX NICKEL AUG on Thursday as seen in the Daily chart opened at 952 levels and made day high of 962.50 levels. During this period crude came down to 951.60 levels and finally closed at 960.30 levels. Now, there are chances of up movement technically & fundamentally.

 On weakened US dollar, LME nickel climbed up gradually with support at the daily moving average.
 It increased 1.2% from Tuesday to close at $14,040/mt with inventory down 918 mt to 250,548 mt.
DAILY RECOMMENDATION: BUY MCX NICKEL AUG ABOVE 962 LEVELS FOR TARGET OF 972/980 WITH SL 949 OF LEVELS.


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.


Gold nudges up as dollar hits 2-week low vs. the yen.

Gold prices rose slightly on Thursday, after gaining for two straight sessions, supported by a slightly weaker dollar versus the yen in Asian trade. The Japanese yen rose to two-week high against the dollar on Thursday ahead of trade talks between the United States and Japan and amid speculation over when the Japanese central bank will exit its ultra-easy monetary policy. USD/ U.S. dollar also slipped against the Chinese yuan but held steady against other major rivalsThe U.S. Federal Reserve has raised benchmark interest rates two times so far this year and targets two more hikes in the near-term with the next one slated to come in September. Higher U.S. rates tend to boost the dollar and treasury yields, adding pressure on greenback-denominated, non yielding gold.

China’s energy vehicle sales hold steady in July and tariffs on copper scrap imports from the US.

New-energy passenger vehicle sales in China came in at 42,000 units in July, little changed from a month ago, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The data also showed that a total of 1.7 million units of passenger vehicles were sold in China last month, down 4.6% month on month but up 5.5% year on year. Included in the passenger vehicle category are sedans, sport utility vehicles (SUV), multi-purpose vehicles (MPV) and mini-vans. Tariffs on copper scrap imports from the US are likely to weigh on the supply in the Chinese market. We expect copper prices to strengthen in the short term.

Nickel rebound as a weakened US dollar and low stocks at SHFE warehouses accounted for the increase.

On weakened US dollar, LME nickel climbed up gradually with support at the daily moving average. It increased 1.2% from Tuesday to close at $14,040/mt with inventory down 918 mt to 250,548 mt. The SHFE 1811 contract also gained 0.73% on high downstream demand and falling stock across SHFE warehouses. We expect the contract to hover at 114,500-115,500 yuan/mt today with LME nickel trading robustly around $14,000/mt. Spot prices are set at 114,000-116,500 yuan/mt.
Oil prices rebound slightly after heavy declines over trade dispute.

Oil prices rebounded on Thursday after heavy losses in the previous session that came as the China-U.S. trade dispute escalated, with official Chinese data indicating energy demand in the world's top importer has yet to recover its strength. China is slapping tariffs of 25 percent on a further $16 billion in imports from the United States, from fuel and steel products to autos and medical equipment. The ongoing trade war is rattling global markets and investors fear any slowdown in the world's two largest economies would slash demand for commoditiesChina's crude imports recovered slightly in July after two months of decline, but were still among the lowest this year due to a drop-off in demand from smaller independent refineries. the world's top importer of crude, took 8.48 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, up from 8.18 million bpd a year earlier and June's 8.36 million bpd, customs data showed.


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.


Wednesday, 8 August 2018


BULLION:-

Gold prices were steady early Thursday, after gaining for two straight sessions, as the dollar extended losses. The yen was broadly higher on Thursday on trade tensions and on revelations the Bank of Japan is under pressure to move away from its accommodative policy. Asian shares were subdued on Thursday after a new round of tit-for-tat tariffs in the U.S.-Sino trade conflict torpedoed oil prices, while the Russian rouble tumbled as the U.S. slapped fresh sanctions on the country. China is putting additional tariffs of 25 percent on $16 billion worth of U.S. imports from fuel and steel products to autos and medical equipment, as the world’s largest economies escalated their trade dispute. China’s exports surged more than expected in July despite U.S. duties and its closely watched surplus with the US remained near record highs, as the world’s two major economic powers ramp up a bitter dispute that some fear could derail global growth. Washington said on Wednesday it would impose fresh sanctions on Russia by the end of August after it determined that Moscow had used a nerve agent against a former Russian agent and his daughter in Britain. The United States is “not willing to wait for too long” for North Korea to take steps toward denuclearization, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said on Wednesday. The U.S. economy is strong enough to warrant further interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Wednesday.

METALS:-

Copper sprices surged more than 1% in early trades on Thursday as China’s consumer inflation picked up from the previous month, largely due to a rise in non-food prices, official data showed on Thursday. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.1 percent from a year earlier, beating expectations of 1.9 percent which was unchanged from June's growth, but still within the governments’ comfort zone of 3 percent. On a month-onmonth basis, the CPI rose 0.3 percent. London copper ticked higher on Wednesday as the dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies as its recent rally fueled by U.S.-China trade tensions appeared to fizzle, with nickel hitting a one-week peak. China’s imports of copper concentrate rose to an all-time high last month as Chinese smelters ramped up purchases to feed their growing capacity and take advantage of high processing charges. China’s aluminium exports rose to their second-highest level on record in July, as a weaker yuan and a still-favourable price arbitrage to international markets outweighed the imposition of U.S. import tariffs and growing trade tensions. Aluminium jumped more than 3 percent to a two-week high of $2,113.50 per tonne, in a flurry of activity in afternoon trade that saw volumes double within a couple hours.

ENERGY:-

Oil prices slid about 3 percent on Wednesday as a trade dispute between the United States and China escalated further and after Chinese import data showed a slowdown in energy demand. China is slapping additional tariffs of 25 percent on $16 billion worth of U.S. imports, from fuel and steel products to autos and medical equipment. The escalating trade war has rattled global markets. Investors fear a potential slowdown of the world’s two largest economies would slash demand for commodities. China’s crude imports recovered slightly in July after two straight monthly declines, but remained low due to a drop-off in demand from smaller independent refineries. Shipments into the world’s biggest importer of crude last month rose to 8.48 million barrels per day from 8.18 million bpd a year earlier and June’s 8.36 million bpd, customs data showed. However, July imports were still the third lowest so far this year. Also weighing on prices, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that crude inventories fell just 1.4 million barrels in the latest week, less than half the 3.3 million-barrel draw analysts had expected. Prices drew some support from U.S. sanctions against Iran, introduced Tuesday in a range of sectors. From November, Washington will target the petroleum sector in Iran, the No. 3 producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. An Iranian newspaper reported that Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said a U.S. plan to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero will not succeed.



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Gold steady as dollar softens versus stabilizing yuan.

 Gold prices were steady early on Wednesday, after rising in the previous session, as the U.S. dollar softened against China's yuan and the euro. Asian shares rose on Wednesday on the back of firmer Wall Street earnings while expectations for increased Chinese stimulus helped take the edge off wider concerns about the worsening Sino-U.S. trade dispute The United States will begin collecting 25 percent tariffs on another $16 billion in Chinese goods on Aug. 23, the U.S. Trade Representative's office said on Tuesday as it published a final tariff list targeting 279 imported product lines. The European Parliament has agreed to ease tough new liquidity rules for banks trading gold, marking a success for the London Bullion Market Association's (LBMA) campaign to revise the plans.

Copper prices are likely to rebound against the backdrop of resilient infrastructure construction in China.

Copper lost some early gains and closed at $6,150/mt in LME on Tuesday. The SHFE October contract turned to the most liquid overnight. Copper prices are likely to rebound against the backdrop of resilient infrastructure construction in China. We expect LME copper to trade at $6,160-6,210/mt today with the SHFE 1810 contract at 49,300-49,800 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 60-100 yuan/mt.
Nickel rebound as a weakened US dollar and low stocks at SHFE warehouses accounted for the increase.

Given low-level inventory of nickel across LME warehouses, LME nickel rebounded to around the daily moving average to a high of $13,890/mt. Pressure was at the $13,900/mt level. LME inventory continued to shrink 372 mt to 251,466 mt. The SHFE 1811 contract received support at the 40-day moving average and gained over 1% from Monday to close at 113,240 yuan/mt. A weakened US dollar and low stocks at SHFE warehouses accounted for the increase. We expect the contract to trade at 112,500-114,000 yuan/mt with LME nickel hovering at $13,900/mt today. Spot prices are set at 112,000-114,500 yuan/mt.

Oil prices steady on falling U.S. crude stocks, Iran sanctions.

 Oil prices held steady on Wednesday, supported by a report of rising U.S. crude inventories as well as the introduction of sanctions against Iran. The U.S. government introduced a raft of new sanctions against Iran on Tuesday, targeting Iran's purchases of U.S. dollars - in which oil is traded - metals trading, coal, industrial software and its auto sector. November, Washington will also target Iran's petroleum sector. Beyond the sanctions, the oil market was focusing on the U.S. market, where the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday that crude inventories fell by 6 million barrels in the week to Aug. 3 to 407.2 million. U.S. fuel storage data is due to be released later on Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Shipments into the world's biggest importer of crude came in at 36.02 million tonnes last month, or 8.48 million bpd, up from 8.18 million bpd a year ago, and just up on June's 8.36 million bpd, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.