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Showing posts with label Intraday commodity tips. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Intraday commodity tips. Show all posts

Monday, 18 February 2019

Cotton futures (Feb) is expected to bounce back amid short covering and lower level buying taking support near 19990.


On the spot markets, cotton prices are expected to remain firm this year due to lower production in the country, apart from rising consumption. In the international markets, the traders are keeping an eye on what's going on over in Beijing for some positive news. High-level officials from the US and China are in talks as a critical trade war deadline is getting closer since March 1 marks the deadline for the current 90-day pause in the trade war. Chana futures (Mar) is expected to intensify its rally & test 4350 levels. Dal mills have kicked off stocking to build inventory after a jump in arrival of pulses from fresh harvest that is likely to double up in coming weeks. Dal mills purchase raw pulses from market and then process it into dal of various grades. On processing 60% comes out as dal, while 25% goes as cattle feed. The rest is wasted. Another reason for the upside momentum is being attributed to the market talks that Nafed will not sell chana in open markets and will go to build buffer stock around 10 lakh tonnes. The trend of mentha oil (Feb) is bullish & may take support near 1590 levels. Weather disturbances in the major growing areas are giving signals of delayed sowing in the key growing areas of Uttar Pradesh. Moreover, demand from both domestic and export fronts are emerging at existing price levels. Export demand has started to pick up from China. 

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Tuesday, 12 February 2019

Cotton futures (Feb) is likely to witness a bounce back amid lower level buying taking support near 20400. 

The statistics of lower output this season may lend cushion to the prices. In its latest estimates, the Cotton Association of India has further trimmed the crop size by 5 lakh bales to 330 lakh bales of 170 kg each for season 2018-19. This estimated crop size is the lowest in a decade. Guar seed futures (Mar) may face resistance near 4300 levels, while guar gum futures (Mar) is expected to remain below 8500-8550 levels. The week-on-week declining ratio of guar seed to guar gum is depicting the fact that demand for these commodities are decreasing. Chana futures (Mar) is expected to take support near 4210 levels. Thecounter is trading higher at major markets in the country following firm cues from fresh physical trade activity at lower rates. Flour millers are actively purchasingchana due to cheaper prices and easy availability compared to White Pea. Moreover, the Cold waves and untimely rains may further damage the standing crop. Mentha oil (Feb) is likely to trade with a positive bias & may even rally up to test 1610, taking support near 1570 levels. Overall, sentiments are bullish as delayed sowing in the state is likely to affect the crop yield. As per reports, farmers are now worried as untimely rains and inclement weather conditions have delayed the sowing in key producing belts. The production is likely to be badly affected if weather conditions don't improve in the next few days.


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Monday, 7 January 2019




BULLION-
MCX Gold and Silver may note choppy trade in line with the international market but the overall bias is on the upside. COMEX gold trades mixed near $1290/oz after a 0.3% gain yesterday. Gold has turned choppy after testing $1300/oz level for the first time since June 2018. The rally in gold price came to a halt amid improved risk sentiment. Progress over US-China trade talks, upbeat US labour data, Feds patient stance on interest rate hikes and Chinas move to cut reserve requirement rate helped global equity market stabilize. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said there's a "very good chance" the US gets a reasonable deal with China. ETF outflows also show some profit taking in gold. Gold holdings with SPDR ETF fell by 1.47 tonnes to 796.78 tonnes. However, supporting price is the weaker outlook for US dollar amid Feds cautious tone on US economy and patient stance on interest rate hikes. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the US central bank should only raise interest rates once this year but keep going with its plan to gradually shrink the balance sheet. While risk sentiment has improved, global uncertainty persists amid a slowdown in the Chinese economy, US government shutdown and Brexit uncertainty. Gold may witness mixed trade as market players await fresh cues. However, we maintain buy on dips view as US dollar is likely to remain choppy while risk sentiment may not improve significantly. COMEX Silver trades weaker near $15.7/oz amid rangebound movement in gold and weakness in industrial metals. Gold has turned choppy amid lack of fresh cues. Industrial metals are pressurized by concerns about the Chinese economy. ETF outflows also show weaker investor interest. Silver holdings with iShares ETF fell by 72.98 tonnes to 9790.1 tonnes, lowest since June 2018. The spot gold-silver ratio rose from 81.9 to 82.4 as silver ended lower yesterday. 

BASE METAL - Basemetal on LME trade sideways to lower today after ending on a higher note yesterday. LME Zinc was the top performer with 2.5% gains following a 0.7% rise in Aluminum prices and 0.4% gains in Nickel prices. In other metals, Copper and Lead too ended modestly higher. The metals pack trades sideways to lower in early trades today after two days of gains amid caution ahead of US-China trade talks outcome. Markets are in a wait and watch mode as they await the outcome of US-China trade talks. The Trump administration has expressed optimism it can reach a reasonable trade deal with China as President Xi Jinping dispatched one of his top aides to negotiations in Beijing. Also putting pressure on the prices is demand worries especially from top consumer China along with and a mixed trend in the global equity market. 


ENERGY -Crude Oil- MCX Crude may note choppy trade in line with international prices but overall bias may be on the upside. NYMEX crude trades mixed near $48.5/bbl after a 1.2% gain yesterday. Crude hit a session high of $49.79/bbl yesterday but retreated to end the day at $48.52/bbl. Crude has rallied more than 15% from recent lows amid lower output from OPEC and recovery in the US equity market. OPECs production fell last month while OPEC and allies have promised adherence to the 1.2 million barrels per day cut deal which will run from January to June. US and global equity market recovered amid upbeat US labour data, Chinas move to cut reserve requirement and progress over US-China trade talks. Also supporting crude is decline in US crude oil rig count which indicates weakening production interest. Early forecasts indicate that US weekly report may note a 1.1 million barrels decline in US crude oil stocks. While crude has recovered sharply from recent lows, the rally will be challenged by higher US output and demand concerns amid uncertainty about US and Chinese economy. US crude production is at record high level and is expected to rise further. Concerns about US economy are high amid mixed economic data, continuing government shutdown and impact on corporate earnings from trade war and higher interest rates. Chinese economic data continues to show a slowdown in the economy. Crude may witness choppy trade amid lack of fresh cues but general improvement in risk sentiment and lower OPEC supply will
support price.Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may note mixed trade in line with the international market but sell on rising is suggested. NYMEX natural gas trades marginally higher near $2.96/mmBtu after a 3.3% decline yesterday. Lack of fresh cues has resulted in some short covering in natural gas. However, weighing on price is a forecast of mild weather in US which will keep a check on heating demand. Also weighing on price is expectations of another smaller than average decline in gas stocks which will further ease tightness concerns. Natural gas may witness choppy trade amid lack of fresh cues but slack demand expectations may keep the pressure on price. The focus will be on US weather and trend in energy prices. 


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Sunday, 6 January 2019


BULLION:- counter may continue its last week upside momentum following comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the central bank would be patient and flexible in steering the course of interest rates. The Fed chairman on Friday sought to ease market concerns that the U.S. central bank was ignoring signs of an economic slowdown, saying he was aware of the risks and would be patient and flexible in policy decisions this year. Gold can test 31650 in MCX taking support near 31370 in MCX and silver can move further upwards towards 39500. U.S. employers hired the most workers in 10 months in December while boosting wages, pointing to sustained strength in the economy that could ease fears of a sharp slowdown in growth. Gold discounts in India widened to a two-month high last week as prices surged to a more than six-month peak and demand remained subdued due to New Year holidays. Chinese officials will meet their U.S. counterparts for trade negotiations starting later Monday, the first face-to-face talks of the year.

BASE METALS:- prices may continue last week recovery on the hope of trade deal between US and China this week. Copper can take key support near 400 and can recover towards 416. Zambia's Konkola Copper Mines (KCM), majority owned by Vedanta Resources, suspended operations at its Nchanga mine following the introduction of import duty on copper concentrates, the company said. Zambia, Africa's No.2 copper producer, introduced new mining duties, increased royalties and plans to replace Value Added Tax (VAT) with a sales tax by April to help bring down mounting debt. Zinc can recover towards 175 taking support near 168. China's steel and iron ore futures started the week firmly on Monday, buoyed by central bank policy easing and by hopes that talks could help end Sino-U.S. trade tensions. China's central bank on Friday cut the amount of cash that banks have to hold as reserves for the fifth time in a year, freeing up $116 billion for new lending. Lead can take support near 134 and can face resistance near 138. Nickel can take witness further recovery as it can test 785. Aluminium can take improve further towards 131 levels taking support near 128 levels. 

ENERGY:- Crude oil may trade in green as oil prices rose by more than 1 per cent on Monday, lifted by optimism that talks could soon resolve the trade war between the United States and China, while supply cuts by major producers also supported the market. Financial markets were riding a relief rally on Monday on expectations that face-to-face trade negotiations between delegates from Washington and Beijing, due to start on Monday, would lead to an easing in tensions between the two biggest economies in the world. Crude oil can test 3400 while taking support near 3300. Despite the likelihood of a slowdown, crude future prices were being supported by supply cuts started late last year by a group of producers around the Middle East-dominated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as non-OPEC Russia. Natural gas may open in red as it can tumble lower towards 200 in MCX. The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States remains unchanged this week at 198, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes showed on Friday. Horizontal rigs -- the type most often used to extract oil.


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Thursday, 3 January 2019


BULLION:- Gold hit fresh six months high on tense global equities. US stocks fell nearly 3% on the day. Market participants are watching a partial US government shutdown that is nearing its second week as President Donald Trump's to meet with top lawmakers to discuss reopening the government by resolving a dispute over funding for the expansion of the US-Mexico border wall did not bear any meaningful result. COMEX Gold is currently trading at $1297 per ounce, up marginally on the day. MCX Gold futures ended at Rs 31800 per 10 grams, up 0.60% on the day. The Indian Rupee extended losses yesterday amid weak stock markets. The domestic currency closed around 70.20 per US dollar after testing a two week low above 70.50 marks.

However, the demand concerns in physical markets can come into the picture for Gold in the near term. The US bullion coin sales reported a weak performance for the second year in a row in 2018 despite lower gold and silver prices, according to the latest data released by the US Mint. The sales of American Eagle gold and silver coins were the lowest since 2007, while American Buffalo coins saw a modest recovery from the worst year on record.

BASE METAL:- COMEX Copper slipped amid weak equities and profit selling pressure. Deep losses were seen in American and European markets with the shares in US, Germany and France leading the charge. However, bargain buying lifted the red metal today after the commodity tested near four month low. The red metal currently trades at $2.59 per pound, up 0.75% on the day after a sharp correction yesterday. The MCX Copper futures ended down 1% on the day, closing just above Rs 400 per kg level.

Sentiments stayed lax on uncertainty about US trade policy and concerns over federal government funding of a border wall with Mexico. General concerns about a global economic slowdown also weighed on sentiments. Global cellphone giant Apple Inc cut its quarterly sales forecast for the first time in more than a decade, with Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Tim Cook blaming slowing iPhone sales in China, whose economy has been dragged down by uncertainty around United States (US) - China trade relations.


ENERGY: -Crude oil edged up Thursday amid volatile trade as markets focussed on the talk that Saudi Arabia is likely cutting crude output. Prices have not been able to hold onto their gains this week as soaring US Crude oil output clubbed with corrective equities are hurting the sentiments for the commodity. The WTI Crude futures currently trade at $47.25 per barrel, up 0.30% on the day. MCX Crude should recover on these cues after closing under Rs 3290 per barrel yesterday.

Oil could face selling pressure on further gains. US crude oil output surged to an all-time high of more than 11.5 million barrels per day in October 2018, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Crude production rose 79,000 bpd in October to 11.537 million bpd, the US Energy Information Administration said in a monthly report. The EIA revised its September oil production figure down by 17,000 bpd to 11.458 million bpd. US oil production broke its 1970 record of 10.04 million bpd in November 2017, and has set monthly record highs for five straight months since June


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Monday, 31 December 2018


BULLION: -Gold prices fell slightly on Monday as Asian equities benefited from hints of progress on the long-drawn China-U.S. trade spat, while the dollar held steady in a narrow range. U.S. gold futures dipped 0.1 percent to $1,282 per ounce. The dollar index, a gauge of its value versus six major peers, held a narrow range in thinly traded markets. U.S. President Donald Trump said he held a very good call with Chins President Xi
Jinping on Saturday to discuss trade and claimed big progress was being made. The Wall Street Journal reported negotiators were starting to work out a deal that could boost U.S. exports and loosen regulations that stifle U.S. firms in China. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said he wants to hold more summits with South Koreas Moon Jae-in next year to achieve the goal of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, Moons office said
on Sunday. The European Union is not trying to keep Britain in and wants to start discussing future ties the moment the UK parliament approves Brexit, partly to focus on its own unity ahead of May elections, the head of the blocs executive said. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham said on Sunday that he was optimistic that Republicans, Democrats and President Donald Trump could reach a deal to end a government shutdown that includes
border wall funding and legal status for some undocumented immigrants. Physical gold demand lacked vigour in most Asian hubs last week as limited safe haven interest failed to lift activity into the year-end, while jewellers in India stepped up purchases, hoping for a further leg to a rally in
domestic rates.

ENERGY:-Oil prices edged higher on the last trading day of the year on Monday, taking a cue from firmer stock markets, but remain on track for the first yearly decline in three years amid concerns of a supply glut. Hints of progress on a possible U.S.-China trade deal helped bolster sentiment, which has been battered by concerns over a weaker global economic outlook. Brent crude futures the international benchmark for oil prices - rose
17 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $53.38 a barrel. Brent has shed about 20 per cent in 2018 following two years of successive growth. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $45.75 a barrel, up 42 cents, or 0.93 per cent, from their last close. WTI is down nearly 25 percent this year. Crude prices have been closely tracking equity markets during volatile trading for both asset classes last week. Meanwhile, imports of Iranian
crude oil by major buyers in Asia hit their lowest in more than five years in November as U.S. sanctions on Irans oil exports took effect last month. Asia's imports from Iran are set to rise again in December after the U.S. granted temporary waivers to some countries, but is not known how much Iran will be able to export once the waivers expire around the start of May. arlier this month, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, agreed to curb output by 1.2 million bpd starting in January in a bid to clear a supply overhang and
prop up prices.

BASE METALS:-Copper inched up on Friday for its first weekly rise in five weeks as gains on global equity markets rekindled interest in riskier assets and a weaker dollar made metal cheaper for buyers with other currencies. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed up 0.2 percent at $5,997 a tonne and around 0.2 per cent higher for the week. Still, concerns over slowing economic growth in China, the biggest metals consumer, have left copper down 17 per cent over the year as a whole. Chinas manufacturing sector is expected to have contracted for the first time in more than two years in December, a poll found. Data this week showed earnings at Chinese industrial firms in November dropped for the first time in nearly three years. China and the United States plan face-to-face consultations on trade in January, the Chinese commerce ministry said. Worries that trade tariffs will curtail demand for metals have dragged prices lower this year.


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Thursday, 27 December 2018


Gold prices rose by Rs 100 to Rs 32,500 per 10 grams on Wednesday in the Delhi Sarafa Bazar market due to demand from local jewellery demand at the highest level of six months on the yellow metal. In the meantime, silver gained Rs. 125 to Rs. 38,125 per kg from the demand for industrial demand. Globally, London's gold spot jumped by $ 4.33 to $ 1,273.40 an ounce. In February, the US gold futures also increased by $ 5.10 to $ 1,276.90 per ounce.

Dollar downgrade by trump
According to analysts, investors' tension has been reduced in risky investments due to increased stress on monetary policy between US President Donald Trump and the US Federal Reserve. At the same time, the interest in safe investment has increased due to the insistence of Trump to refuse to sign the federal expenditure to pass a $ 5 billion bill to fencing the US border with Mexico. Government work in the US is partially stalled due to Trump's stumbling attitude. In the overseas markets, silver gained Rs 0.12 to $ 14.85 an ounce.


Silver crosses Rs 38 thousand counter

Gold standard rose by Rs 100 to Rs 32,500 per ten gram after the 12th day of December, after gold demanded for the third consecutive day as demand of domestic pearls rose. Gold Bitur also reached the same level of Rs 32,350 per 10 grams. However, the eight-gramy gini was steady at Rs 25,000. Silver coins continued to rise by Rs 125 to Rs 38,125 per kilogram on industrial demand. Silver futures also rose by Rs 140 to Rs 37,680 per kg. Coin and selling remained steady at Rs 74 thousand and Rs 75 thousand per sq.


Price of both precious metals in Delhi Sarafa Bazar (Rs.

  •  10 grams per standard gold: 32,500
  •   10 grams per golden bitur: 32,350
  •  Silver Spot Per Kg: 38,125
  •  Silver futures per kilogram: 37,680
  •  Coin sold per hundred: 74,000
  •  Coin sold per hundred: 75,000
  •  Eight grams per Guinean: 25,000
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