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Showing posts with label MCX commodity tips. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MCX commodity tips. Show all posts

Tuesday, 16 October 2018


BULLION:-

There Gold prices held steady on Wednesday despite a rise in equities, with investors waiting for minutes from the US Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting for any fresh clues on the pace of interest rate hikes. Spot gold was up 0.1 per cent at $1,224.70 an ounce at 0100 GMT. On Monday, it touched its highest since July 26 at $1,233.26 an ounce. US President Donald Trump heaped more criticism on the Fed in an interview with Fox Business Network on Tuesday, extending his discontent beyond its chairman, Jerome Powell, whom he has frequently critiqued in public. Past US presidents have been reticent to criticize the central bank because its independence is seen as important for economic stability. But Trump in the past week has called the Fed "crazy," "loco," "ridiculous," and "too cute". Asian equities got some much needed relief on Wednesday after upbeat US earnings reports drove a rebound on Wall Street and helped restore a little confidence in emerging market stocks and currencies. 

METALS:-

On Tuesday, bargain-seekers pushed up LME copper to the daily moving average from early lows before a rally in US stocks rally that was fuelled by earnings and weighed on the dollar further bolstered LME copper to a high of $6,252.5/mt. The contract fell back to the daily moving average by close. The SHFE 1811 contract traded range bound in negative territory overnight. China factory prices slowed in September, indicating a potential slowdown in profit growth across Chinese manufacturers in the fourth quarter amid the ongoing trade war with the US. This is set to weigh on copper prices. LME copper is likely to trade at $6,200-6,250/mt today with SHFE copper at 50,000-50,500 yuan/mt. In the physical market, sellers are keen to cash in under the pressure from cash flows and existing stocks while downstream consumers hold back from purchases. While sellers lowered offers, trades remain sluggish. Spot discounts are seen at 60-20 yuan/mt today.


ENERGY:-

Oil prices extended gains into a fourth session on Wednesday, buoyed as industry data showed a surprise decline in U.S. crude inventories and as geopolitical tensions over the disappearance of a prominent Saudi journalist stoked supply worries. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was up 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $72.07 a barrel by 0255 GMT on Wednesday, having settled up 14 cents. U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.1 million barrels last week, compared with analyst expectations for a build of 2.2 million barrels, American Petroleum Institute data showed after Tuesday's settlement. U.S. gasoline stocks dropped by a larger-than-expected 3.4 million barrels, while distillate fuel stockpiles declined by a smaller-than-expected 246,000 barrels, the API data showed.




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Monday, 15 October 2018


BULLION:-
There Gold prices inched higher early on Tuesday, hovering near a 2-1/2 month high hit in the previous session, as risk averse investors sought a safe haven amid rising political tensions and economic uncertainty. Spot gold was up 0.1 per cent at $1,227.76 an ounce at 0114 GMT. On Monday, it touched a peak of $1,233.26, the highest since July 26. Asian stocks bounced modestly on Tuesday, gaining a toe-hold after a week of heavy losses, although increasing tensions between Saudi Arabia and the West fanned geopolitical concerns and capped gains. The US government closed the 2018 fiscal year $779 billion in the red, its highest deficit in six years, as Republican-led tax cuts pinched revenues and expenses rose on a growing national debt, according to data released on Monday by the Treasury Department. 

METALS:-
London copper closed near its day lows at $6,253/mt on Monday as longs booked profits after the contract climbed to an intraday high of $6,342/mt. With bearish sentiment from weakness in the equity markets, longs booked profits after the SHFE 1811 contract crept to a high of 50,960 yuan/mt and hovered around the daily moving average. This dragged the contract down to close at a low of 50,480 yuan/mt overnight. The pessimistic sentiment, triggered by the equity rout, lingered and this slowed the growth in copper prices. However, China's robust exports in September and low stocks across LME, COMEX and SHFE warehouses could provide some support. On technicals, LME copper touched the 10-day moving average and its Bollinger bands appeared to converge; SHFE copper stood firmly above the five-day moving average. We expect LME copper to trade at $6,190-6,280/mt today with the SHFE 1811 contract at 50,500-51,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at discounts of 20 yuan/mt to premiums of 30 yuan/mt.

ENERGY:-

Oil prices rose on Tuesday on signs Iranian oil exports this month have fallen from September ahead of U.S. sanctions against Tehran that are set to start in November. Iran has exported 1.33 million barrels per day (bpd) to countries including India, China and Turkey in the first two weeks of October, according to Definitive Eikon data. That was down from 1.6 million bpd in September, the data showed. October exports are a sharp drop from the 2.5 million bpd exported in April before U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from a multi-lateral nuclear deal with Iran in May and ordered the re-imposition of economic sanctions on the country, the third-largest producer among the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).


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Sunday, 14 October 2018


BULLION:-

There were a recent combination short covering and a flight to safety that lead to gold's rapid increase in price with the precious metal climbing through the descending channel's resistance to set a fresh high of $1,226/oz up from $1,180 recent double bottom lows. However, US equity markets set a firmer tone on Friday with respect to investor risk appetite which leaves gold bulls exposed to the risk of a deeper correction should market's continue to recover - Gold had already retreated back to $1,216 which has been marked out by the bears in the last two full day's of trade since its advance.  Eyes will stay focussed on US rates, the US dollar and stock markets with investor sentiment on shaky grounds considering the heightened tensions with respect to global trade relations and geopolitical risks

METALS:-

London copper reversed some early gains on Friday as the dollar climbed. The SHFE 1812 contract on Friday night fell below the daily moving average and ended at 50,720 yuan/mt after it rose to a high of 51,090 yuan/mt. Copper prices recovered as the markets settled from the US equity rout. In late trading on Friday, LME nickel lost all the gains it made earlier in the day and fell to a low of $12,610/mt before hovering around $12,670/mt and settling at $12,685/mt. The SHFE 1811 contract on Friday night rebounded to hover around 105,000 yuan/mt and end at 104,950 yuan/mt after it fell to a low of 104,430 yuan/mt. SHFE nickel prices are likely to remain rangebound as supply and demand both grow. LME nickel is expected to hover around $12,650/mt today and the SHFE 1811 contract is expected to trade at 104,000-106,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 104,000-111,000 yuan/mt

ENERGY:-


Crude oil futures rose on Monday as geopolitical tensions over the disappearance of a prominent Saudi journalist stoked worries about supply, although concerns about the long-term outlook for demand dragged on prices. "The market has again expressed concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after U.S. and Saudi traded comments over the disappearance of the Saudi journalist, leading to a jump in prices," Wang Xiao, head of crude research with Guotai Junan Futures, wrote in a research note. Saudi Arabia has been under pressure since Jamal Khashoggi, a prominent critic of Riyadh and a U.S. resident, disappeared on Oct. 2 after visiting the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Kingdom would retaliate against possible economic sanctions taken by other states over the case, its state news agency SPA reported on Sunday quoting an official source.


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Thursday, 11 October 2018


BULLION:-
Gold edged down on Friday but held near an over two-month high hit in the previous session, when prices surged over 2 percent as a rout in global stock markets boosted the metal's safe-haven appeal. Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,221.06 an ounce at the time of writing. On Thursday, it jumped about 2.5 percent after marking its highest since July 31 at $1,226.27. That was also the metal's best one-day percentage gain since June 2016. U.S. gold futures were down 0.3 percent at $1,224.50 an ounce. Worries about the economic impact of the Sino-U.S. trade war, a spike in U.S. bond yields this week and caution ahead of earnings seasons have all been cited as potential reasons behind the selloff, the biggest market rout since February.

METALS:-
London aluminium steadied on Friday after metals were caught in a widespread market sell-off this week, but it was set for its biggest weekly drop since June as concerns over raw material costs eased. LME aluminium had edged up 0.3 percent to $2,027 a tonne at the time of writing - still holding above the $2,000 level that has been its base since April. Prices were on course for a loss of nearly 4 percent this week, extending 2018's drop to 11 percent. Putting downward pressure on raw material costs, aluminium maker Norsk Hydro said it would resume half production at its giant Brazilian alumina plant, just days after declaring it would shut down completely. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper rose half a percent to 50,450 yuan ($7,312) a tonne. Open interest in China's copper contract is the lowest in 15 months. U.S. President Donald Trump warned on Thursday there was much more he could do that would hurt China's economy further, showing no signs of backing off an escalating trade war with Beijing.  

ENERGY:-

Oil prices steadied on Friday after a market rout driven by sharp falls in equity markets and indications that supply concerns have been overblown, but were still on track for a fall or more than 4 percent for the week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 11 cents at $71.08 a barrel, after falling 3 percent in the previous session to the lowest since Sept. 21. U.S. crude inventories rose by 6 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, more than double analysts' expectations of a 2.6 million-barrel increase. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast of global demand growth for oil next year for a third straight month, citing headwinds facing the broader economy from trade disputes and volatile emerging markets. OPEC sees the oil market as well supplied and is wary of creating a glut next year, the group's secretary-general said on Thursday.


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Wednesday, 10 October 2018


BULLION:-

Gold prices edged higher in the morning session as some investors sought refuge in the precious metal after the global stocks tumbled and the U.S. dollar weakened. Spot gold rose 0.4 percent to $1,194.12 per ounce at the time of writing. U.S. gold futures settled up $1.9, or 0.16 percent, at $1,193.4. Stocks on major world markets fell to a three-month low, with the benchmark S&P500 stock index falling more than 3 percent, in its biggest one-day fall since February. The U.S. dollar index retreated from a seven-week peak hit in the previous session. Gold, however, has fallen over 13 percent since hitting a peak in April, with investors increasingly opting for the safety of the greenback as the U.S.-China trade war unfolded against a backdrop of rising U.S. interest rates. Rising bond yields have also dampened the appeal of gold, which pays no interest. Higher U.S. Treasury yields can translate into more demand for the dollar, making bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. U.S. Treasury yields held near multi-year highs after government data showed the U.S. producer price index (PPI) climbed in September, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would continue raising interest rates.  

METALS:-

Zinc fell in the previous session on trade and inflation worries, although it had earlier risen back towards a 3-month high reached last week on shrinking inventories and smelter cuts in China. Zinc inventories in LME-registered warehouses fell to 194,575 tonnes from more than 250,000 tonnes in August and are nearing 10-year lows. Stockpiles in Shanghai Futures Exchange storehouses at 29,204 tonnes are the smallest since 2007. Also weighing on zinc were lingering worries that trade tensions will sap growth. The worries, coupled with rising U.S. bond yields, pushed world shares down to a three month low. Demand for refined zinc will exceed supply by 322,000 tonnes this year, but the gap will narrow to 72,000 tonnes in 2019, industry data showed on Monday. The premium of cash zinc over the three-month contract rose to $41.50, reversing recent falls and signaling a lack of nearby supply.  

ENERGY:-

Oil dropped on Thursday to extend big losses from the previous session as global stock markets suffered a rout, with crude prices also taking a hit from a weekly industry report showing U.S. crude inventories had risen more than expected. Supply worries also eased as Hurricane Michael likely spared oil assets from significant damage as it smashed into Florida, even as it caused injuries and widespread destruction. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 57 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $72.60 after dropping 2.4 percent in the previous session. U.S. crude stockpiles rose more than expected last week, while gasoline inventories increased and distillate stocks drew, industry group the American Petroleum Institute said on Wednesday. Crude inventories climbed by 9.7 million barrels in the week to Oct. 5 to 410.7 million, compared with analyst expectations for an increase of 2.6 million barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub rose by 2.2 million barrels, API said. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due to release official government inventory data today at 08.30 PM IST. In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, producers have cut daily oil production by roughly 42 percent due to the storm, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said.  


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Monday, 8 October 2018


BULLION:-

Gold fell to its lowest level in a week on Monday as investors sought safety in the U.S. dollar on concerns about a selloff in global stocks worsened by worries over economic growth in China. "The strong U.S. dollar and expectations of more interest rate hikes are pushing gold down and scaring gold investors. Even the Italian risk and a weakness in equities is not pushing investors to buy gold," said Carlo Alberto De Casa, chief analyst at Active Trades. Despite the losses, gold has held in a $34 range for the last 1-1/2 months, which some analysts say suggests resilience, worries over the damage to emerging market economies from higher U.S. interest rates has spurred safe-haven bidding.

METALS:-

London copper rebounded to a high of $6,224.5/mt from a low of $6,126/mt on Monday. This helped it stand firmly above the 20-day moving average. The SHFE 1811 contract reversed some gains overnight after hitting a high of 50,320 yuan/mt, which was near the five-day moving average. China’s actions, including a steep cut in the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, quickening special bond issuance for shanty-town redevelopment, an increase in export tax rebates from November 1, supported copper prices in the domestic market. Stocks at home and abroad continued their declines. We expect LME copper to trade at $6,170-6,230/mt with the SHFE 1811 contract at 50,000-50,500 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 40-80 yuan/mt.

ENERGY:-

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as more evidence emerged that crude exports from Iran, OPEC's third-largest producer, are declining in the run-up to the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions and as a hurricane moved across the Gulf of Mexico. Iran's crude exports fell further in the first week of October, according to tanker data and an industry source, as buyers are seeking alternatives ahead of the start of the U.S. sanctions on Nov. 4 and creating a challenge to other OPEC oil producers as they seek to cover the shortfall. The Islamic Republic exported 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in that seven-day period, Definitive Eikon data showed. An industry source who also tracks exports said October shipments were so far below 1 million bpd.


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Sunday, 7 October 2018


BULLION:-

Gold edged higher on Friday, on track for its biggest weekly gain in six, as the dollar softened after data showed U.S. job growth slowed more than expected last month and a slide in stock markets burnished the appeal of bullion as a safe haven. "The weaker-than-expected jobs data is supporting the overall current mood but the numbers were not disappointing enough to trigger fresh buying," said Heraeus precious metals trader Alexander Zumpfe. However, the Labor Department's monthly employment report also showed a steady rise in wages, suggesting moderate inflation pressures, which could allow the Federal Reserve to maintain a path of gradual interest rate increases. A weaker dollar makes bullion less expensive for buyers using other currencies. But rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion

METALS:-

Last week, LME fell after it gained 3% on Wednesday with resistance at the 40-day moving average and support at $12,000/mt. Stocks across LME inventories continued to decline but on a smaller scale. We expect LME nickel to hover around $12,600/mt today with the SHFE 1811 contract trading at 103,500-105,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 103,500-110,000 yuan/mt. London copper lost 0.67% to end at $6,186.5/mt on Friday. SHFE copper faces pressure from a strong US dollar and firm US economy. The recent US-Mexico-Canada Agreement will also put China’s exports under pressure. China’s central bank, however, provided some support. The reserve requirement ratios (RRRs) cut of 100 basis points announced on Sunday is set to bolster the stock market and grow anticipation of investment growth in infrastructure construction in the fourth quarter of the year. We expect LME copper to trade at $6,140-6,210/mt today with the SHFE 1811 contract at 49,000-50,100 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 20-70 yuan/mt as traders might clean up their stocks and downstream consumers would restock after the week-long break.

ENERGY:-


Oil has rallied to trade near four-year highs on concerns that the looming U.S. restrictions on the Islamic republic will squeeze shipments and spur a global crunch at a time when supplies are already being disrupted in Venezuela and Libya. Investors remain concerned the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies aren’t raising output quickly enough and that they may not have the capacity to fully cover disappearing volumes. Brent for December settlement fell as much as 96 cents to $83.20 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange and was at $83.30 at 10:28 a.m. in Singapore. The contract slipped 0.5 percent to $84.16 on Friday. The global benchmark crude traded at a $9.66 premium to U.S. West Texas Intermediate for the same month.

 


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Thursday, 4 October 2018


BULLION:-

Gold prices held steady early Friday as investors remained cautious after U.S. Treasury yields hit multi-year peaks and ahead of monthly employment data, which if stronger could boost the Federal Reserve’s case for a tighter monetary policy. Spot gold was flat at $1,199.20 an ounce at the time of writing. Spot gold was on track to gain 0.6 percent for the week, which would mark its biggest weekly gain since the week of Aug. 24. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1 percent to $1,202.90 an ounce. The U.S. Treasuries market’s two-day selloff pushed its volatility to its highest level since June as investors shed their bond holdings on surprisingly strong economic data and signals the Fed would raise interest rates further. Higher interest rates tend to boost the dollar and push bond yields up, putting pressure on gold prices by increasing the opportunity cost of holding nonyielding bullion. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was little changed at 95.765, after climbing to a six-week peak of 96.121 in the previous session.  

METALS:-

London aluminum held its ground on Friday as worries over an alumina shortage stoked cost inflation concerns, sending prices towards the biggest weekly gain in nearly six months. London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium was little changed at $2,167 a tonne, down just 0.1 percent after hitting its loftiest since June at $2,267 the session before. Prices were on track for a 5.8 percent weekly rise, the biggest since April. The Brazilian state of Para on Thursday said it was surprised when Norsk Hydro decided a day earlier to halt operations at Alunorte, the world’s largest alumina refinery, and asked for a report explaining the decision. Other metals came under pressure from a stronger dollar. LME copper eased by 1.63 percent to $6,228 in the previous session, after the U.S. currency was boosted by solid demand for Treasuries following a strong payrolls report. The Shanghai Futures Exchange remains closed for the Golden Week holiday and will reopen on Monday.  

ENERGY:-


Oil prices rose on Friday, as traders focused on U.S. sanctions against Iran’s crude exports that are set to start next month to tighten global markets. The gains helped claw back some of the losses from the previous session due to rising U.S. inventories and after Saudi Arabia and Russia said they would raise output to at least partly make up for expected disruptions from Iran. International benchmark Brent crude oil futures were at $84.98 per barrel at the time of writing, up 40 cents, or 0.5 percent from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 50 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $74.83 a barrel. Overall oil market sentiment is bullish. Financial traders have accumulated bullish long positions betting on a further rise in prices amounting to almost 1.2 billion barrels of oil. Meanwhile, the number of short positions in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts has fallen to the lowest level since before 2013, creating a near-record imbalance between bullish and bearish positions in financial crude markets. 


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Sunday, 30 September 2018


BULLION:-
 Gold prices dipped in the morning session, with the dollar holding steady after marking a near three-week high in the previous session in the wake of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s plans last week for multiple interest rate hikes by 2020. Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,189.22 at the time of writing. The metal fell 0.8 percent in September, marking its sixth straight monthly decline and longest monthly losing streak since January 1997. On Friday, gold touched its lowest since Aug. 17 at $1,180.34 an ounce. U.S. gold futures were down 0.3 percent at $1,193.0 an ounce. The dollar index was steady against a basket of major currencies, having touched its highest since Sept. 10 in the previous session. The Fed raised interest rates last week and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in 2020. U.S. consumer spending increased steadily in August, supporting expectations of solid economic growth in the third quarter, while a measure of underlying inflation remained at the Fed’s 2 percent target for a fourth straight month. China will cut import tariffs on textile products and metals, including steel products, to 8.4 percent from 11.5 percent, effective Nov. 1, the finance ministry said on Sunday.  

METALS:-
 London metal prices eased on Monday amid evidence that the Sino-U.S. trade dispute impacted China’s manufacturing activity last month and as a week-long holiday got underway in the country. Growth in China’s manufacturing sector sputtered in September as both external and domestic demand weakened, two surveys showed on Sunday, raising the pressure on policymakers as U.S. tariffs appear to be inflicting a heavier toll on the Chinese economy. A private survey showed growth in the factory sector stalled after 15 months of expansion, with export orders falling the fastest in over two years, while an official survey confirmed a further manufacturing weakening. London Metal Exchange copper had eased 0.3 percent to $6,242 a tonne by 0219 GMT, following a gain of 1.2 percent on Friday. Copper prices climbed 4.7 percent in September, the largest monthly gain in a year when prices have dropped a total of nearly 14 percent.  

ENERGY:-
Brent crude oil prices rose to their highest since November 2014 on Monday ahead of U.S. sanctions against Iran, the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), that kick in next month. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 32 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $73.57 a barrel. WTI prices were supported by a report on Friday of a stagnant rig count in the United States, which points to a slowdown in U.S. crude production, which now rivals top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia. Brent was pushed up by looming sanctions against Iran, which will start targeting its oil sector from Nov. 4. In a sign that the financial market is positioning itself for further price rises, hedge funds increased their bullish wagers on U.S. crude in the week to Sept. 25, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Friday, increasing futures and options positions in New York and London by 3,728 contracts to 346,566 during the period.  



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Thursday, 27 September 2018


BULLION:-

Gold prices edged up early on Thursday, supported as investors looked for bargains after the metal fell to a two-week low in the previous session following a U.S. interest rate hike. Spot gold had risen 0.2 percent to $1,196.21 an ounce at the time of writing. On Wednesday, the metal touched its lowest since Sept. 11 at $1,190.40 an ounce. U.S. gold futures were up 0.1 percent at $1,200.40 an ounce. Gold is sensitive to higher interest rates because they tend to boost the dollar, making bullion more expensive for buyers with other currencies. The dollar steadied against its peers early on Thursday as the small boost it received from the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hike faded, with a decline in U.S. Treasury yields reducing support for the greenback. In a statement that marked the end of the era of “accommodative” monetary policy, the Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday and left intact its plans to steadily tighten monetary policy, as it forecast that the U.S. economy would enjoy at least three more years of growth. 

METALS:-

The prices of base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange were mostly lower at the close of trading on Wednesday, with zinc being the only metal to trade positively amid continued bearish sentiment across the base metals complex. Copper fell for a third straight session on Wednesday as the dollar firmed ahead on the direction of U.S. interest rates hike. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange edged down 0.4 percent to $6,264 per tonne at the time of writing. Persistent concerns over tit-for-tat trade tariffs between China and the United States are denting demand for risky assets, such as metals. The union at Alcoa’s aluminium operations in the state of Western Australia said it was meeting the company again on Wednesday to try to resolve a strike that has lasted more than six weeks, after the firm last week revised an earlier offer. Stocks in LME-monitored warehouses fell below a million tonnes for the first time since March 2008 on Wednesday, at 999,925 tonnes.

ENERGY:-


Oil prices rose by 1 percent on Thursday as investors focused on the prospect of tighter markets due to U.S. sanctions against major crude exporter Iran, which are set to be implemented in November. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $72.41 a barrel, up 84 cents, or 1.2 percent from their last settlement. At its 2018 peak, Iran exported around 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, equivalent to 3 percent of global consumption. Shipping data shows Iran September exports fell to around 2 million bpd as buyers around the world bow to U.S. pressure and cut imports. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has little spare capacity to make up for an expected shortfall in Iranian exports. Reflecting expectations of lower supply from the Middle East, Oman crude futures on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange touched their highest in four years on Wednesday, briefly jumping above $90 a barrel. While global oil markets tighten, supply in the United States is ample, thanks to rising output.  



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Monday, 24 September 2018


Gold Prices Look to Fed Policy Meeting for Range Break Catalyst.-Gold prices continued to echo swings in the US Dollar, with an inconclusive Monday session for the latter echoed in the former. On balance, lasting direction may not emerge until after Wednesday’s FOMC monetary policy announcement. In shaping the outlook for prevailing yields and the greenback, it will speak directly to the relative appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets epitomized by the yellow metal. Gold prices remain confined to a choppy range below the August 28 high at 1214.30. A daily close above that and falling trend resistance at 1220.00 targets opens the door for another challenge of the 1235.24-41.64 area. Alternatively, a break below the range floor at 1183.28 – marked by the August 24 low– targets the swing bottom at 1160.37. 

The US is on the cusp of implementing tariffs of 10% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods- 
 While LME copper came off from earlier highs, it still stood above the 60-day moving average overnight. Global visible inventories extended their declines last week with SHFE stocks down 23,500 mt to 111,000 mt. Such low inventories could provide some support to copper prices. The SHFE 1811 contract is likely to pull back in the short term after it broke through the upper Bollinger band on Friday. Spot premiums are seen at 80-130 yuan/mt. 

 Growing supplies amid an open import arbitrage window.-LME nickel plunged to $12,780/mt overnight before it hovered around $12,825/mt. We expect a weak performance for the SHFE 1811 contract today given its weak LME counterpart and growing supplies amid an open import arbitrage window. LME nickel is likely to hover around $12,850/mt today; the SHFE 1811 contract is likely to trade at 103,000-104,500 yuan/mt with spot prices at 103,500-110,000 yuan/mt. 

Oil rises to within 4-year high as producers resist output increase to offset Iran sanctions.- Crude Oil benchmark Brent rose for a second day on Tuesday, remaining within range of a four-year high reached during the previous session. Looming U.S. sanctions against Iran and the unwillingness or inability of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and top oil producer Russia to raise output to offset the loss of Iranian supply have spurred prices higher. The United States from Nov. 4 will target Iran's oil exports with sanctions, and Washington is putting pressure on governments and companies around the world to fall in line and cut purchases from Tehran. While Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and Iran on Tuesday said they were determined to develop payment mechanisms to continue trading despite the sanctions by the United States, most analysts expect Washington's actions to knock between 1 million and 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil supplies out of markets. U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded that OPEC and Russia increase their supplies to make up for the expected fall in Iranian exports. Iran is the third-largest producer in OPEC. 



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