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Showing posts with label Market Updates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Market Updates. Show all posts

Thursday, 14 February 2019

Cotton futures (Feb) is likely to plunge further towards 20100-20000 levels.

CAPITALSTARS INVESTMENT ADVISER
 Cottonprices moved lower in Punjab, Haryana and upper Rajasthan, tracking weakness in US natural fiber. Sharp decline in domestic futures along with higher output estimate in China also weighed on spot prices. Worries about a looming March 1 deadline for a US-China trade agreement also dragged prices lower. Meanwhile, negotiators from the United States and China, the world's top soybean buyer, are trying to hammer out a trade deal before a March 1 deadline, when US tariffs on USD 200 billion worth of Chinese imports are scheduled to increase to 25 percent from 10 percent. Guar seed futures (Mar) may face resistance near 4300 levels, while guar gum futures (Mar) is expected to remain below 8520 levels. The weekon-week declining ratio of guar seed to guar gum is depicting the fact that demand for these commodities are decreasing. Chana futures (Mar) is expected to take support near 4175 levels. The counter is trading higher at major markets in the country following firm cues from fresh physical trade activity at lower rates. Flour millers are actively purchasing chana due to cheaper prices and easy availability compared to White Pea. Moreover, the Cold waves and untimely rains may further damage the standing crop. Mentha oil (Feb) is likely to witness further rally & test 1650-1665 levels. Overall, sentiments are bullish as delayed sowing in the state is likely to affect the crop yield. As per reports, farmers are now worried as untimely rains and inclement weather conditions have delayed the sowing in key producing belts. The production is likely to be badly affected if weather conditions don't improve in the next few days. 

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Tuesday, 12 February 2019

Cotton futures (Feb) is likely to witness a bounce back amid lower level buying taking support near 20400. 

The statistics of lower output this season may lend cushion to the prices. In its latest estimates, the Cotton Association of India has further trimmed the crop size by 5 lakh bales to 330 lakh bales of 170 kg each for season 2018-19. This estimated crop size is the lowest in a decade. Guar seed futures (Mar) may face resistance near 4300 levels, while guar gum futures (Mar) is expected to remain below 8500-8550 levels. The week-on-week declining ratio of guar seed to guar gum is depicting the fact that demand for these commodities are decreasing. Chana futures (Mar) is expected to take support near 4210 levels. Thecounter is trading higher at major markets in the country following firm cues from fresh physical trade activity at lower rates. Flour millers are actively purchasingchana due to cheaper prices and easy availability compared to White Pea. Moreover, the Cold waves and untimely rains may further damage the standing crop. Mentha oil (Feb) is likely to trade with a positive bias & may even rally up to test 1610, taking support near 1570 levels. Overall, sentiments are bullish as delayed sowing in the state is likely to affect the crop yield. As per reports, farmers are now worried as untimely rains and inclement weather conditions have delayed the sowing in key producing belts. The production is likely to be badly affected if weather conditions don't improve in the next few days.


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Wednesday, 6 February 2019


MCX Updates


BULLION - MCX Gold and Silver may note some decline tracking cues from international exchange however downside is limited. COMEX gold trades weaker near $1310/oz after a 0.4% decline yesterday. Gold is under pressure amid some profit taking after recent rally to April 2018 highs. Gains in US dollar and ETF outflows have put pressure on gold price. Demand in Indian markets is also expected to weaken amid higher price while Chinese buying may slowdown post Lunar New year holidays. Reports of Venezuela�s gold sales have also fuelled concerns about distress sales amid economic uncertainty. The US dollar index trades little changed near 96.4 levels after a 0.3% gain yesterday. The US dollar is supported by concerns about health of European economies amid disappointing economic data and Brexit uncertainty. Australian dollar has also weakened against US dollar amid central bank�s dovish stance. While Fed has become patient on rate hikes, it is still upbeat on the economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powel was quoted stating that the US economy is now in a good place. Gold holdings with SPDR ETF fell by 2.1 tonnes to 809.76 tonnes amid some profit taking after recent rally. However, supporting gold is global uncertainty. Asian equity markets trade largely lower today after a flat close in US markets yesterday. Market players continue to remain wary about US-China trade talks, Brexit uncertainty and possibility of another government shutdown and mixed economic data from major economies.

ENERGY- Crude Oil- MCX Crude may note mixed trade in line with international market but overall bias is on the upside. NYMEX crude trades in a narrow range near $54 per barrel after a 0.7% gain yesterday. US EIA weekly report was mixed to positive. EIA noted a 1.263 million barrels increase in US crude oil stocks as against expectations of 1.4 mn bbl rise. EIA also noted a smaller than expected rise in gasoline stocks and a bigger than expected decline in distillate stocks. US crude production was however steady at record high level of 11.9 million barrels per day. Also supporting price is OPEC�s adherence to production cuts and supply concerns relating to Venezuela. According to Azerbaijan's energy minister, OPEC and its allies will probably extend their oil-cuts agreement later this year to keep prices at "comfortable" levels. US sanctions on Venezuela are expected to reduce exports by at least 500,000 bpd. However, weighing on crude price is gains in US dollar, choppiness in equity market and demand concerns amid mixed US and Chinese economic data and uncertainty about US-China trade, Brexit and another government shutdown. The US dollar has strengthened amid concerns about European economies amid disappointing economic data and Brexit. Crude has rallied sharply in last few weeks but is now struggling to gain traction amid lack of fresh cues. We expect choppy trade to continue amid lack of fresh cues but buying could emerge at lower levels on back of OPEC�s production cuts.

Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may note mixed trade in line with international market but overall bias remains weak. NYMEX natural gas trades marginally higher near $2.68/mmBtu after a flat close yesterday. Natural gas has seen some recovery from April 2018 lows amid position squaring ahead of inventory report. EIA is expected to note a 231 Bcf decline in gas stocks as against 5-year average decline of 150 Bcf. A bigger than average decline is positive for price as it will widen the deficit however it has been factored in given the recent cold snap in US. Weighing on price is mixed weather forecast which will keep a check on heating demand. 

BASE METAL - Most metals on LME trade sideways to lower today after noting closing on a lower note yesterday. LME Zinc was the worst performer with 1.35% slide followed by 0.9% decline in Nickel prices and 0.8% slide in Aluminium prices. In other metals, Lead ended 0.6% lower however Copper continued its uptrend to end 0.7% higher.



Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Tuesday, 29 January 2019

mcx update

BULLION � MCX Gold and Silver may trade with a positive bias tracking cues from international exchange. COMEX gold trades higher above $1310/oz after testing the highest level since May 2018. Gold has hit multi month high amid choppiness in US dollar and equity market. The US dollar index is under pressure ahead of FOMC decision today. Fed is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged but may reiterate patient stance on rate hikes. Global risk sentiment is weak amid signs of slowdown in Chinese economy, disappointing economic data and corporate earnings results from US and uncertainty about Brexit and US-China trade talks. US and China will begin their two day meeting today to resolve trade issues however hopes of a deal are low given tensions over Huawei and other issues like technology transfer. On Brexit front, UK lawmakers voted to renegotiate the Brexit withdrawal agreement with European Union however Brussels is not willing to negotiate. ETF inflows also show buying interest in gold. Gold holdings with SPDR ETF rose by 8.23 tonnes to 823.868 tonnes, highest level since June 2018. Gold may witness choppy trade ahead of key events however general bias may be on the upside amid weaker outlook for US dollar and general weaker risk appetite.

ENERGY- Crude Oil- MCX Crude may note mixed trade in line with international market but selling could be seen at higher levels. NYMEX crude trades in a narrow range above $53 per barrel after a sharp 2.5% gain yesterday. Crude rose yesterday after a sharp 3.2% decline a day earlier. The mixed trade is due to mixed factors and uncertainty ahead of outcome of major events. Supporting crude price are supply concerns relating to Venezuela as US imposed sanctions on Venezuela's state-owned oil co. PDVSA that effectively block the country exporting crude to the US. Crude has also benefitted from reports that Saudi Arabia will further reduce output in February to 10.1 million barrels per day as against targeted 10.311 million bpd. However, weighing on crude price are concerns about record high US crude oil production, slowdown in Chinese economy, disappointing US economic data and uncertainty about US-China trade talks and Brexit. US and China will begin their two day meeting today to resolve trade issues however hopes of a deal are low given tensions over Huawei and other issues like technology transfer. On Brexit front, UK lawmakers voted to renegotiate the Brexit withdrawal agreement with European Union however Brussels is unlikely to negotiate. Focus today will shift to US weekly inventory report. Ahead of EIA report, API noted a smaller than expected about 1 million barrel increase in US crude oil stocks and another rise in gasoline and distillate stocks. US EIA weekly report is expected to note a 3.1 million barrels increase in US crude oil stocks. Apart from crude stocks, focus will be on US crude production which stands near record high level. Apart from inventory, focus will also be on US economic data which will affect outlook for the economy.

Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may note mixed trade in line with international market however bias may be on the downside. NYMEX natural gas trades mixed near $2.9/mmBtu after a 1% gain yesterday. Weighing on natural gas price are weather forecasts which show that current cold weather in US Midwest and east will give way to milder weather keeping a check on heating demand. However, supporting price is expectations of a bigger than average decline in gas stocks. As per early estimates, EIA may note a 190 Bcf decline in gas stocks as against 5-year average decline of 150 Bcf. A bigger than average decline in stocks will widen deficit over 5-year average. Natural gas has fallen sharply in last few days on expectations of waning demand however we expect choppy trade ahead of inventory report hence one must wait for higher levels to create short positions.

BASE METAL - Base metals on LME trade sideways to higher today following mixed close yesterday. LME Nickel was the best performer with 2.5% gains followed by 1.3% rise in Aluminium prices and 0.8% gains in Copper prices. In other metals however Lead and Zinc prices ended 0.1% and 0.9% lower respectively.




Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 

For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com