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Showing posts with label agri calls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label agri calls. Show all posts

Monday, 18 February 2019

Soybean futures (Mar) is likely to witness sell on rise from 3775 & is expected to test 3700 levels on the downside. 


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The initial estimates coming from the Soybean Processors’ Association (SOPA) shows that in the upcoming Kharif season output is likely to rise by a staggering 38% on a sharp increase in average yield across the country. India’s soybean output at 11.48 million tonnes this year compared to 8.3 million tonnes in the previous year on favourable climatic condition. This increase in production is being attributed to the major producing state in Madhya Pradesh wherein the yield is estimated to rise by 30.5% to 1,094 kg per ha for the current season from 838 kg from the previous season. The survey also highlighted that in Maharashtra output is estimated to rise by 32% to 3.84 million tonnes for this year from 2.91 million ha last year. Soy oil futures (Mar) is expected to face resistance near 770 levels & trade with a downside bias. Demand in the physical market is subdued from millers and crushers with ongoing lean season for soybean and oil market. CPO futures (Mar) is expected to plunge further & test 555 levels on reports of higher imports. The latest statistics show that imports of palm oils including RBD Palmolein and CPO touched 23.18 lakh tonnes (lt), up from 22.74 lt reported in the same period last year. Mustard futures (Apr) will possibly remain stable in the range of 3900-3940 levels. The changing weather patterns causing rainfall over the major growing regions where the crops are in the fields are bringing concerns over the production scenario.


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Cotton futures (Feb) is expected to bounce back amid short covering and lower level buying taking support near 19990.


On the spot markets, cotton prices are expected to remain firm this year due to lower production in the country, apart from rising consumption. In the international markets, the traders are keeping an eye on what's going on over in Beijing for some positive news. High-level officials from the US and China are in talks as a critical trade war deadline is getting closer since March 1 marks the deadline for the current 90-day pause in the trade war. Chana futures (Mar) is expected to intensify its rally & test 4350 levels. Dal mills have kicked off stocking to build inventory after a jump in arrival of pulses from fresh harvest that is likely to double up in coming weeks. Dal mills purchase raw pulses from market and then process it into dal of various grades. On processing 60% comes out as dal, while 25% goes as cattle feed. The rest is wasted. Another reason for the upside momentum is being attributed to the market talks that Nafed will not sell chana in open markets and will go to build buffer stock around 10 lakh tonnes. The trend of mentha oil (Feb) is bullish & may take support near 1590 levels. Weather disturbances in the major growing areas are giving signals of delayed sowing in the key growing areas of Uttar Pradesh. Moreover, demand from both domestic and export fronts are emerging at existing price levels. Export demand has started to pick up from China. 

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The upside in turmeric futures (Apr) may remain restricted near 6400 levels. 

Thenew crop arriving in the key producing regions of Tamil Nadu and Telangana in addition with expectation of a higher crop may keep the upside capped. The deficiency of cultivation area in Telangana & Tamil Nadu has been covered up by Maharashtra, where the area under turmeric has increased substantially this year and hence they are expecting an increase of 15 per cent in turmeric production in 2018-19. Also, the demand is sluggish mainly due to the higher moisture content in the produce being brought by farmers to the markets. According to the marketparticipants this season there is hardly any demand, whereas normally, it comes in from January 15 and peaks during March. Jeera futures (Mar) is seen taking a Uturn upside towards 15880-16000, forming a base near 15400 levels. Taking advantage of lower level buying the market participants have started taking long positions as this season India has become the sole supplier of jeera to the world. The competitive producers Syria & Turkey are getting washed out of trade & uncompetitive in the export market. The exporters are getting ready to begin their buying spree quality of this year crop is expected to be good. With arrivals of the new crop expected by mid-February and prices already moving higher, the sentiments are turning to be bullish. Coriander futures (Apr) will possibly trade range bound within 6065-6320 levels. The downside may remain capped as the spot markets in in Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh are sending positive signals since the farmers are not interested in bringing their produce in mandis at existing lower prices. 

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Friday, 15 February 2019

Cotton futures (Feb) is likely to plunge further towards 20100-20000 levels. 

                CAPITALSTARS INVESTMENT ADVISER

Cottonprices moved lower in Punjab, Haryana and upper Rajasthan, tracking weakness in US natural fiber. Sharp decline in domestic futures along with higher output estimate in China also weighed on spot prices. Worries about a looming March 1 deadline for a US-China trade agreement also dragged prices lower. Meanwhile, negotiators from the United States and China, the world's top soybean buyer, are trying to hammer out a trade deal before a March 1 deadline, when US tariffs on USD 200 billion worth of Chinese imports are scheduled to increase to 25 percent from 10 percent. Guar seed futures (Mar) may face resistance near 4300 levels, while guar gum futures (Mar) is expected to remain below 8520 levels. The weekon-week declining ratio of guar seed to guar gum is depicting the fact that demand for these commodities are decreasing. Chana futures (Mar) is expected to test 4335 levels on the higher side. The counter is trading higher at major markets in the country following firm cues from fresh physical trade activity at lower rates. Flour millers are actively purchasing chana due to cheaper prices and easy availability compared to White Pea. Moreover, the Cold waves and untimely rains may further damage the standing crop. Mentha oil (Feb) is likely to witness profit booking from higher levels facing resistance near 1650. However, overall sentiments are bullish as delayed sowing in the state is likely to affect the crop yield. As per reports, farmers are now worried as untimely rains and inclement weather conditions have delayed the sowing in key producing belts. The production is likely to be badly affected if weather conditions don't improve in the next few days. 


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Soybean futures (Mar) may face resistance near 3785 levels & trade with a negative bias.


India’s soybean output is likely to rise by a staggering 38 per cent this year on a sharp increase in average yield across the country, following favourable climatic condition in major cultivating states including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Data captured through the latest assessment of farmers, traders and other stakeholders by the apex industry body the SoybeanProcessors’ Association (SOPA) showed India’s total soybean output standing at 11.48 million tonnes during the ongoing harvesting season as compared to 8.36 million tonnes in the previous season. Mustard futures (Apr) is expected to consolidate in the range of 3920-3960 levels. Heavy rains and hailstorms that lashed north-western India last week have caused damage to the oilseed. Ref. soy oil futures (Mar) is expected to trade with a negative bias facing resistance near 762 levels. CPO futures (Feb) may fall further & test 553 levels. Vegetable oil imports for the period from November 2018 to January 2019 stood at 36,20,316 tonnes — nearly flat as compared to what was reported in the same period last year. According to the data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), imports of palm oils — including RBD Palmolein and CPO — touched 23.18 lakh tonnes (lt), up from 22.74 lt reported in the same period last year. In news, The U.S. soybean processing pace slowed slightly in January from the previous month, although the crush was still the largest on record for the first month of the year, according to analysts polled ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report. The monthly NOPA report will be released at 11 a.m. CST (1700 GMT) on Friday.


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Turmeric futures (Apr) is expected to gain further towards 6405 taking positive cues from the spot markets.

Traders at the markets in Erode evinced interest in buying the new turmeric. On Thursday, the arrival of new turmeric increased to 1,500 bags. Regarding the prices, root variety decreased in all the markets due to quality, while good numbers of finger turmeric were sold. Jeera futures (Mar) is expected to rally towards 15920 levels, taking support near 15675. Spot jeera prices continued to rule steady at major markets in Gujarat in limited trade on matching demand and supply. This season, Gujarat has witnessed lower sowing, but due to cool weather persisting for a longer time, the yields are expected to get better. In Rajasthan, the climatic conditions are also proving to be beneficial for the standing crop & hence the production is likely to be higher. Coriander futures (Apr) is expected to face resistance near 6420 levels. Spot coriander prices are trading with a bearish bias at major markets in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan due to heavy arrivals from the ample old stocks. While, prices quoted lower at major markets in Gujarat due to increased arrivals & having higher moisture content. On the other hand, there was no report of new crop arrival in Madhya Pradesh.

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