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Showing posts with label agri calls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label agri calls. Show all posts

Thursday, 4 October 2018


BULLION:-

Gold prices held steady early Friday as investors remained cautious after U.S. Treasury yields hit multi-year peaks and ahead of monthly employment data, which if stronger could boost the Federal Reserve’s case for a tighter monetary policy. Spot gold was flat at $1,199.20 an ounce at the time of writing. Spot gold was on track to gain 0.6 percent for the week, which would mark its biggest weekly gain since the week of Aug. 24. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1 percent to $1,202.90 an ounce. The U.S. Treasuries market’s two-day selloff pushed its volatility to its highest level since June as investors shed their bond holdings on surprisingly strong economic data and signals the Fed would raise interest rates further. Higher interest rates tend to boost the dollar and push bond yields up, putting pressure on gold prices by increasing the opportunity cost of holding nonyielding bullion. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was little changed at 95.765, after climbing to a six-week peak of 96.121 in the previous session.  

METALS:-

London aluminum held its ground on Friday as worries over an alumina shortage stoked cost inflation concerns, sending prices towards the biggest weekly gain in nearly six months. London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium was little changed at $2,167 a tonne, down just 0.1 percent after hitting its loftiest since June at $2,267 the session before. Prices were on track for a 5.8 percent weekly rise, the biggest since April. The Brazilian state of Para on Thursday said it was surprised when Norsk Hydro decided a day earlier to halt operations at Alunorte, the world’s largest alumina refinery, and asked for a report explaining the decision. Other metals came under pressure from a stronger dollar. LME copper eased by 1.63 percent to $6,228 in the previous session, after the U.S. currency was boosted by solid demand for Treasuries following a strong payrolls report. The Shanghai Futures Exchange remains closed for the Golden Week holiday and will reopen on Monday.  

ENERGY:-


Oil prices rose on Friday, as traders focused on U.S. sanctions against Iran’s crude exports that are set to start next month to tighten global markets. The gains helped claw back some of the losses from the previous session due to rising U.S. inventories and after Saudi Arabia and Russia said they would raise output to at least partly make up for expected disruptions from Iran. International benchmark Brent crude oil futures were at $84.98 per barrel at the time of writing, up 40 cents, or 0.5 percent from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 50 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $74.83 a barrel. Overall oil market sentiment is bullish. Financial traders have accumulated bullish long positions betting on a further rise in prices amounting to almost 1.2 billion barrels of oil. Meanwhile, the number of short positions in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts has fallen to the lowest level since before 2013, creating a near-record imbalance between bullish and bearish positions in financial crude markets. 


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Monday, 6 August 2018


Gold extends rally from 17-mth low, stronger dollar caps gains.

Gold prices inched higher on Monday, extending their recovery from a 17-month low, amid lingering worries over the U.S.-China trade conflict, while a stronger U.S. dollar capped the safe havens gains. Gold prices rebounded on Friday from a 17-month low of $1,204 per ounce as dollar slipped after data showed U.S. job growth slowed in July. The dollar also weakened against the yuan on Friday after the Chinese central bank sought to stabilize its currency. greenback, however, regained footing on Monday and strengthened against major peers. China proposed retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods on Friday, further escalating a bitter trade conflict, after the Trump administration sought to ratchet up pressure for trade concessions by proposing a higher 25-percent tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.

Copper prices to rebound given the low global inventory and the risk of a strike at Escondida copper mine.
Copper came off from a high of $6,230/mt and closed at $6,176/mt in LME on Friday. Copper surged up in MCX Friday market and made a high of 422.40 and close at 419.05. Despite uncertain developments in the US-China trade disputes, we see possibility for copper prices to rebound given the low global inventory and the risk of a strike at Escondida copper mine. LME copper is likely to trade at $6,130-6,180/mt today
Nickel fell down as low in demand and recovery in production.
 LME nickel remained its upward trend last Friday night and touched a high of $13,560/mt with resistance at the five-day moving average. Open interests increased 2,662 lots to 242,000 lots with LME inventory shrinking 792 mt to 253,278 mt. As short exited, Nickel made a high of 928.70 and it maintain its strong support of 900.

Oil prices rise after Saudi output dips,U.S. drilling stalls.

Oil prices rose on Monday after Saudi crude production registered a surprising dip in July and as American shale drilling appeared to plateau. U.S. energy companies last week cut oil rigs for a second time in the past three weeks as the rate of growth has slowed over the past couple of months. Drillers cut two oil rigs in the week to Aug. 3, bringing the total count down to 859, Baker Hughes energy services firm said on Friday. U.S. shale oil drillers posted disappointing quarterly results in recent weeks, hit by rising operating costs, hedging losses and a fall in crude prices away from 2018 highs reached between May and July. the United States, top crude exporter Saudi Arabia pumped around 10.29 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in July, two OPEC sources said on Friday, down about 200,000 bpd from a month earlier. Saudi Arabia halted temporarily oil shipments through the lane on July 25 after attacks on two oil tankers by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi movement.

Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
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Thursday, 31 May 2018

CAPITALSTARS


Gold
MCX Gold prices edged higher in evening trades on Thursday after U.S. economic data but overall prices are still in pressure. On the daily chart, Gold has given breakdown of rising wedge pattern; which indicate bearish reversal for near term. Moreover, price has reversed from 50 days SMA; which act as resistance zone for the prices. Furthermore, momentum indicator RSI (14) and MACD has shown bearishness with negative crossover. On the other hand, COMEX Gold has sustained near $1300 levels. Therefore, we expect sideways to bearish movement in MCX Gold prices.
Crude oil
Oil prices rebounded on Thursday as crude oil inventories fell by 3.620 million barrels in the week ended May 25. On daily chart MCX Price has given rising channel breakdown and sustained below it. Moreover, price has tested upper Bollinger Band formation and retreated from there. Furthermore, price has also sustained below 21 days SMA on daily chart. In addition, momentum indicator RSI has slipped form overbought zone and shown negative crossover. So based on the above analysis, we expect bearish movement in the Crude oil towards 4450.
Natural Gas
MCX Natural Gas price has rebounded on Thursday after a long correction in prior two days. On the daily chart, price has been trading within a channel formation and moved back to test upper line of the above formation. Moreover, price has sustained above 21 days SMA; which indicate bullish moves. Furthermore, a momentum indicator RSI (14) and MACD has climbed to upward with positive crossover, which suggest buying opportunity in the counter. So based on the above technical studies, we expect bullish move in MCX Natural Gas prices.
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Wednesday, 30 May 2018

CAPITALSTARS

Gold traded in range as signs the Italian crisis was abating reduced safe-haven demand, triggering risk-on sentiment, offsetting support from a plunge in dollar -   Gold traded in range as signs the Italian crisis was abating reduced safe-haven demand, triggering risk-on sentiment, offsetting support from a plunge in dollar. U.S. economic growth slowed slightly more than initially thought in the first quarter as consumer spending rose at its weakest pace in nearly five years. China lashed out at renewed threats from the White House on trade, warning that it was ready to fight back if Washington was looking for a trade war. The United States will announce plans to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium from the European Union, possibly as early as Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Italy's two main anti-establishment parties could yet form a government, after the man nominated as interim prime minister said politicians, rather than technocrats like himself, might be able to steer the country out of deadlock.

Zinc prices remained supported on-warrant zinc stocks in LME warehouses eased to 195,225 tonnes, their lowest in a month - Zinc on MCX settled up 1.46% at 212.30 as support seen after LME Zinc prices gained to closed up 1.3 percent at $3,130 a tonne, off an earlier one-month high of $3,139.50 after cancelled warrants dipped fast on Wednesday. On-warrant zinc stocks in LME warehouses eased to 195,225 tonnes, their lowest in a month. The proportion of cancelled warrants - metal earmarked for delivery and therefore not available to the market – rose to nearly 15 percent from 6 percent last week. While jitters over the U.S.-China trade stand-off kept up pressure on cyclical assets like industrial metals, already hurt this week by worries over political turmoil in Italy.

Oil Prices Drop On Surprise U.S. Supply Rise - Oil prices took a dip on Thursday morning in Asia due to a surprise surge in inventories in the US, paired with expectations that other markets may decide to increase output next month.US crude inventories rose by 1 million barrels in the week to May 25 to 434.9 million barrels, according to data released by the American Petroleum Institute.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other non-OPEC members including Russia may start to increase their supply as well. Saudi Arabia, de-facto leader of OPEC, and Russia have discussed raising oil production in the second half of the year by some 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to make up for potential supply shortfalls from Venezuela and Iran.


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Tuesday, 22 May 2018

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Gold prices rose from lows on dollar weakness but remained under pressure amid easing trade war fears and signs of waning demand for the yellow metal -   Gold on MCX settled up 0.07% at 31112 as prices recovered from lows on dollar weakness but remained under pressure amid easing trade war fears and signs of waning demand for the yellow metal. The world's two largest economies stepped back from the brink of a global trade war and agreed to hold further talks aimed at boosting U.S. exports to China. The yellow metal is also being weighed down by expectations that the Federal Reserve will lift U.S. interest rates again next month. Higher interest rates make non-yielding assets like gold less attractive to investors. Washington and Beijing both claimed victory as the world's two largest economies stepped back from the brink of a global trade war and agreed to hold further talks to boost U.S. exports to China.

Copper edged higher after China and the United States put their trade row on hold, easing concerns the dispute could escalate - Copper on MCX settled up 1.23% at 467.85 after China and the United States put their trade row on hold, easing concerns the dispute could escalate, although headwinds from a stronger dollar capped gains. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin declared the U.S. trade war with China “on hold” following an agreement to drop tariff threats that had roiled global markets this year. China’s economy will likely expand by around 6.7 percent in the second quarter this year, the State Information Center said. In a session with no major economic reports stateside, market participants will focus their attention on appearances from Federal Reserve policymakers as they seek to gauge plans for policy tightening. Now the focus this week will undoubtedly be on Fed chairman Jerome Powell who will participate in a panel discussion of "Financial Stability and Central Bank Transparency" at the Sveriges Riskbank Conference in Stockholm, Sweden on Friday.

Oil prices edge up on Venezuela, Iran supply worries - Oil prices rose on Tuesday on concerns that Venezuela's crude output could drop further following a disputed presidential election and potential U.S. sanctions on the OPEC-member. The United States also toughened its stance on Iran and made a list of sweeping demands, which could further curb the country's crude oil exports and boost oil prices."(Oil inventory) is tight and the U.S. will probably tighten sanctions on Venezuela which will make the Venezuela situation worse and which means we can expect continued falling Venezuelan production," said Tony Nunan, oil risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp in Tokyo.

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Sunday, 20 May 2018

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Rising Rates, Euro Worries and Trade War Concerns are Today’s Market Drivers -   Besides rising U.S. interest rates, gold could be pressured on Friday by further weakness in the Euro. The single-currency is headed for its fifth successive weekly decline versus the dollar, in what would be a first for the currency since 2015, as political uncertainty in Italy continued to worry investors. Gold futures are trading lower early Friday, pressured by rising U.S. Treasury yields and a rebound in the U.S. Dollar. Renewed geopolitical tensions over North Korea may be encouraging some buying. Additionally, there are also worries over an escalation of tensions between the United States and China over trade issues. However, unless these stories lead to elevated concerns, rising interest rates will be the main driver of the bearish price action.

 Ten companies approved for copper scrap imports in 12th batch of approvals - The operating rates across China's zinc oxide plants are likely to dip in May, an SMM survey showed. This is due to the month-long environmental inspections in Jiangsu province since late April, and intensified inspections ahead of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Qingdao, Shandong province, in June. Hebei and Jiangsu border Shandong in the north and south, respectively. Most of China's zinc oxide production is located in these three provinces and account for more than half of China's capacity.

Operating rates at zinc oxide plants to dip in May - China's inventory of primary aluminium, including SHFE warrants, shrank to 2.12 million mt as of Monday May 21 due to stable downstream consumption, according to SMM data. The inventory was down 20,000 mt from 2.14 million mt on Thursday May 17 and down 32,000 mt from 2.25 million mt a week ago. The week-on-week decline was slower from 58,000 mt last Thursday.

Oil Prices Rise As China, U.S. Put Trade War On Hold - Oil prices rose on Monday morning in Asia, boosted by news that China and the U.S. have put a looming trade war “on hold”.The trade war between the world’s two biggest economies is “on hold” after they agreed to drop their tariff threats while they work on a wider trade agreement, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Sunday. The news gave global markets a lift in early trading on Monday. Brent crude crept ever closer to $80 per barrel, a level it has not seen since November 2014, as supplies tightened while demand remained strong. Traders expect the trade dispute to de-escalate over time through negotiation. However, geopolitical risks continue to prop up prices. Markets remain on edge due to looming U.S. sanctions against Iran that may cause shortages in oil supplies later this year when trade restrictions take effect. Iran currently produces 4% of global oil supplies.



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Saturday, 19 May 2018

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Oil prices fell on Friday, but Brent crude marked its sixth straight week of gains, boosted by plummeting Venezuelan production, strong global demand and looming U.S. sanctions on Iran.
Brent crude  futures fell 79 cents, or 1 percent, to settle at $78.51 a barrel. The global benchmark on Thursday broke through $80 a barrel for the first time since November 2014, and investors anticipate more gains due to supply concerns, at least in the short term.
Brent, which has gained about 17.5 percent since the start of the year, rose about 1.9 percent this week.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude  futures fell 21 cents to settle at $71.28 a barrel, a 0.29 percent loss. The contract rose about 0.9 percent for the week, its third straight week of gains.
Hedge funds and other money managers cut their combined futures and options position in New York and London in the week to May 15 to the lowest level in six months, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday. The move was the fourth consecutive cut. The net long position dropped by 15,322 contracts to 419,907 during the period.
On Friday, traders were looking ahead to Venezuela's election on Sunday, which could then trigger additional U.S. sanctions if President Nicolas Maduro is re-elected for a six-year term, though the opposition party has largely boycotted the race and two of his most popular opponents have been banned from running.
Additional sanctions could further hurt Venezuelan oil supply, already reeling from lack of maintenance and state-run PDVSA's inability to pay its bills. Most recently, the company elected to close its refinery in Curacao after ConocoPhillips  seized oil as it seeks to collect on a $2 billion court award.
Barclays said output from Venezuela could fall below 1 million barrels per day (bpd). The country produced around 1.4 million bpd in April, according to OPEC secondary sources.
OPEC leading producer Saudi Arabia said on Thursday it would make sure the world is adequately supplied with oil just as major consumer India expressed frustration with rising prices.
U.S. investment bank Jefferies said sanctions against Iran could remove more than 1 million bpd from the market.
The U.S. oil rig count held steady at 844 this week after rising for six weeks in a row, General Electric Co's  Baker Hughes energy services firm said.


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Friday, 18 May 2018

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Gold Prices Slips Amid Rising U.S. Treasury Yields, Stronger Dollar -   Gold prices slipped on Friday in Asia amid rising U.S. treasury yields and a stronger dollar. Meanwhile, the dollar hovered near five-month highs well above the 93 level, after climbing to this year’s fresh high at 93.46 overnight. The US Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies last stood at 93.38. The rising United States 10-Year Treasury yield  was cited as tailwind for the dollar. The yield further rose to 3.122%, up 0.43% on Friday morning - the highest level since 2011. Higher yields triggered a spike in demand for the greenback. Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar.

 Ten companies approved for copper scrap imports in 12th batch of approvals - Total approved copper scrap imports for this year rose to 482,400 mt, after the 12th batch of approvals for restricted solid scrap material imports was released on Tuesday May 15, SMM learned. Ten companies that imported scrap metals, waste plastics, and waste paper received approval. Approvals were granted by the solid waste management centre of China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment. SMM surveyed that supply pressures have not built up from the decline in the approved copper scrap imports, due to sluggish downstream demand. Orders dipped from the start of May across copper rod producers that used copper scrap as raw materials. Profits were lower for products produced from scrap while profits from copper rods produced from copper cathode grew.

Fair weather drives operating rates across zinc galvanisers in Apr - Operating rates across China's zinc galvanising plants in April gained 19.29 percentage points on the month and stood at 86.1%, SMM surveyed. This is up 19.16 percentage points on the year.  Most galvanising plants in north China cut production for environmental inspections in April 2017, and this accounted for the significant year on year increase in operating rates. During this closure, the plants undertook technological overhaul in acid polluting and wastewater treatment. They resumed regular operations in May 2017.

Oil Prices Firm As Brent Edges Close to $80 Per Barrel - Oil prices firmed on Friday morning in Asia, with Brent crude creeping ever closer to $80 per barrel, a level it has not seen since November 2014, as supplies tighten while demand remains strong.Geopolitical risks continue to prop up prices, and an unexpected fall in U.S. inventories pushed them up further. U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels in the week to May 11, and gasoline stocks fell by 3.79 million barrels. Meanwhile, looming U.S. sanctions against Iran, which currently produces 4% of global oil supplies, raised fears that oil markets will face shortages later this year when trade restrictions take effect. In Venezuela, production also plunged to 1.5 million barrels last month, its lowest level in decades due to its ongoing economic crisis. On the other hand, U.S. crude is increasingly appearing on global markets as a result of its surging production.


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