BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on weaker path as gold prices fell in early Asian trade on Tuesday as the dollar rose to a near one-week high on expectation of a smaller interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve at the end of this month. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to lower its interest rate target range of 2.25%-2.50% by 25 basis points at a meeting ending July 31, but expectations for a larger 50-basis point cut have waxed and waned due to mixed signals from Fed policymakers. The global march towards lower interest rates reaches Europe this week with the European Central Bank expected at least to signal easier monetary policy. Expectations of policy easing by major central banks such as the Fed propped up global stocks on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Sterling was on the back foot on Tuesday as investors worried Boris Johnson, the front runner to become the UK's next prime minister, would trigger a "hard Brexit" from the European Union. 

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on mixed path as oil prices inched lower on Tuesday as the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it would act quickly if needed to keep the market supplied amid tensions in the Middle East and traders eyed a weaker demand outlook. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it was closely monitoring developments in the Strait of Hormuz. Consumers can be reassured that the oil market is currently well supplied, with oil production exceeding demand in the first half of 2019, pushing up global stocks by 900,000 barrels per day, the IEA said in a statement. The potential for disruption in the Middle East has come amid a more fundamental souring of market sentiment in recent days, with hedge funds, producers and traders all taking a more bearish tack in response to what they see as weakness in worldwide demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-affiliated producers including Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, have withheld supplies since the start of the year to prop up prices. U.S. natural gas futures gained almost 3% on Monday as forecasts for hotter weather and higher cooling demand next week lifted prices from two-week lows hit last week.

BASE METAL - Base metals may trade with upside path. Most base metals rose on the LME, but lost ground on the Shanghai Futures Exchange as investors eyed monetary policies from major central banks, including a highly expected policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Expectations of policy easing by major central banks such as the Federal Reserve propped up global stocks. The global world refined copper market showed a 96,000 tonnes deficit in April, compared with a 42,000 tonnes deficit in March, the International Copper Study Group said in its latest monthly bulletin. London nickel prices rebounded on Tuesday after two sessions of declines, hovering around a one-year peak, while the base metals complex was broadly higher. Global primary aluminum output fell to 5.246 million tonnes in June from revised 5.406 million tonnes in May, data from the International Aluminium Institute showed on Monday.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on the weaker bias on stronger local currency rupee amid expectation of clear majority to the present government in the exit polls. Gold steadied on Monday after four days of falls, as a Sino-U.S. trade dispute aggravated by a Huawei ban and U.S. President Donald Trump'ss latest threat to Tehran fuelled interest in the safe-haven metal. Gold fell to a two-week low of $1,274.51 an ounce on Friday after data showed U.S. consumer sentiment jumped to a 15-year high in early May amid growing confidence over the economy's outlook. U.S. President Donald Trump issued a new threat to Tehran on Sunday, tweeting that a conflict would be the official end of Iran, as Saudi Arabia warned it stood ready to respond with all strength's and said it was up to Iran to avoid war. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.4% to 736.17 tonnes on Friday from 733.23 tonnes on Thursday. Hedge funds and money managers raised their net long positions in COMEX gold in the week to May 14, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade with an upside bias as oil prices jumped as much as 1 percent on Monday after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid alFalih indicated there was a consensus among OPEC and allied oil producers to continue limiting supplies. The rally came after Falih said on Sunday there was a consensus among Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other non-OPEC producers to drive down crude inventories gently's '', but his country would remain responsive to the needs of what he called a fragile market. OPEC, Russia and other non-member producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, agreed to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day from Jan. 1 for six months, a deal designed to stop inventories building up and prices weakening. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $63.39 per barrel, up 63 cents, or 1%, from their previous settlement. 

BASE METAL - Base metals may remain with a weak bias on the stronger rupee. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange rose in early Asian trading on Monday after last week's slump, but Shanghai industrial metals edged down as investors remained wary about the intensifying U.S.-China trade war. Beijing has called on Washington to show "sincerity" if it is to hold meaningful trade talks, after the United States put China's Huawei Technologies Co Ltd [RIC:RIC: HWT.UL], the world's biggest telecoms equipment maker, on a trade blacklist. Zambia, Africa's second-biggest copper producer, is introducing a new non-refundable sales tax in place of value-added tax, despite criticism from mining companies. The United States struck deals on Friday to lift tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico, the three governments said, removing a major obstacle to legislative approval of a new North American trade pact.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may witness some profit booking at higher levels as investors will eye the outcome of FOMC meeting minutes later today. Gold on Wednesday traded near a two-week high hit in the previous session, as investors worried about the trade tensions between the United States and Europe, and as the International Monetary Fund cut its global growth outlook. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global economic growth forecasts for 2019 and warned growth could slow further due to trade tensions and a potentially disorderly British exit from the European Union. European Union leaders will grant British Prime Minister Theresa May a second delay to Brexit but they could demand she accepts a much longer extension as France pushed for conditions to limit Britain ability to undermine the bloc. Venezuela removed eight tonnes of gold from the central bank vaults last week, and the cash-strapped socialist state is expected to sell the bullion abroad as it seeks to raise hard currency in the face of U.S. sanctions, a lawmaker and one government source said.

ENERGY- Crude oil may remain with upside bias as oil prices edged back towards five-month highs on Wednesday, supported by ongoing supply cuts by producer club OPEC and U.S. sanctions against oil exporters Iran and Venezuela. Oil markets have been tightened this year by U.S. sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuela, as well as supply cuts by the producer club of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-affiliated producers, a group known as OPEC+. Venezuelan oil output is estimated to have fallen from 1.19 million bpd in October to 890,000 bpd in March, while output from Iran has fallen from 3.33 million bpd to 2.71 million bpd due to sanctions. Declines from these two exempt countries account for almost 47 percent of the reduction seen from OPEC. Oil production in the United States has risen by more than 2 million barrels per day since early 2018, to a record 12.2 million bpd. U.S. dry natural gas production will rise to an all-time high of 91.00 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2019 from a record high of 83.39 bcfd in 2018, according to the Energy Information Administration's Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday. 

BASE METAL - Base metals prices may trade with negative bias .Copper fell on Wednesday after the International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast and the United States threatened to slap tariffs on hundreds of European goods. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for world economic growth this year to 3.3 percent from 3.5 percent previously, citing the U.S.-China trade war and a potentially disorderly British exit from the European Union. An indigenous community in Peru voted to suspend its two-month road blockade of MMG Ltd Las Bambas copper mine for two days until the government visits the region on Thursday. 

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade sideways to negative path. Gold prices inched down on Monday as Gold inched up on Tuesday, but was trading near a more than three-week low touched in the previous session as the U.S. dollar strengthened and equities rose. The dollar was up 0.1 percent against key rivals, trading close to a three-week high posted in the previous session as ebbing concerns about the global economy pushed U.S. bond yields up from 15-month lows. U.S. manufacturing activity rebounded a bit more than expected in March, according to an industry report released on Monday, as production, new orders and hiring all picked up. U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in February, but a rebound in factory activity in March and strong increase in construction spending offered hope the economy was not slowing as sharply as previously feared. China raised its gold holdings by 9.95 tonnes in February, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. The Perth Mint said on Monday its gold products sales in March surged about 68 percent from the previous month, touching the highest level since November last year.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on positive note as oil prices rose to fresh highs for the year on Tuesday, after a U.S. official said Washington is considering more sanctions on Iran and key Venezuelan export terminal halted operations. OPEC oil supply sank to a four-year low in March and positive data from the world biggest economies, the United States and China. The U.S. government is considering additional sanctions against Iran that would target areas of its economy that have not been hit before, a senior Trump administration official told reporters on Monday. The official also suggested that the U.S. may not extend waivers from sanctions on Iranian oil exports to a group of eight importers that expire next month. Venezuela Jose crude export terminal has halted operations due to a lack of electricity supply, two sources with knowledge of the situation said, after restarting on Friday following a prolonged blackout. Production cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) helped push the group supply to a four-year low in March

BASE METAL - Base metals prices may trade sideways path. Copper and most other base metals fell on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar edged higher and as supply concerns from a copper mine in Peru eased slightly. The Peruvian government offered a deal to indigenous protesters to lift their blockade at the Las Bambas copper mine owned by China MMG Ltd, but a decision is pending agreement among the indigenous community. Indigenous protesters have blocked roads to the mine since early February, demanding compensation from MMG for using a stretch of road on their farmland. Las Bambas produces about 2 percent of global copper output. Russian aluminium giant Rusal has resumed supplies to the U.S. market and aims to win back customers it lost due to sanctions by about September when the industry seals supply contracts for 2020.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade with volatile path. Gold and silver prices are modestly down amid mild profit-taking pressure from recent gains and a firmer U.S. dollar index on this day helped to pressure the precious metals markets. Gold investors should pay more attention to what the Federal Reserve is actually doing instead of listening to comments from a Federal Reserve governor nominee, according to two market professionals. Stephen Moore, President Donald Trump nominee for the U.S. Central Bank, is raising eyebrows after he said, in an interview with the New York Times Tuesday, that the Federal Reserve should immediately cut interest rates by 50 basis points. The comments come as a surprise to markets which are still digesting last week monetary policy meeting that saw the U.S. central bank signal that it does not expect to raise interest rates this year and downgraded its economic growth forecasts.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on negative note as oil prices fell on Thursday, extending losses into a second straight session, after widely watched data showed a surprising increase in U.S. stocks. Prices came under pressure from a rise in U.S. inventories, athough analysts pointed to support from efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and nonaffiliated allies like Russia, known as OPEC+, to trim output. Prices came under pressure from a rise in U.S. inventories, athough analysts pointed to support from efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-affiliated allies like Russia, known as OPEC+, to trim output. U.S. utilities likely withdrew 40 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas from storage last week amid typical temperatures for the period.

BASE METAL - Base metals prices may trade sideways to negative path. London copper prices edged lower in early Asian trade on Thursday as the dollar strengthened, while investors awaited news from U.S.-China trade talks restarting in Beijing. The 10-member China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) will meet in Shanghai on Thursday to determine floor treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for copper concentrate in the second quarter. The dollar rose on Thursday as many of its peers weakened after more central banks opted to shift to a dovish policy stance in the wake of deteriorating economic prospects. Indonesia's nickel-related industries such as the production of stainless steel and battery materials are set to surpass the value of its second-biggest export earner, palm oil, in the next 10 to 15 years, its investment board chief said on Wednesday. Aluminium touched a one-week high on Wednesday as inventories fell and prices shrugged off another step towards a full restart of Norsk Hydro Brazil alumina operations.

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BULLION - Bullion counter may trade with positive bias. Gold prices firmed on Monday as concerns about a potential U.S. recession and decelerating global growth weighed on stock markets, which increased appetite for safer assets. Investors dumped shares on Monday and fled to the safety of bonds, while the Japanese yen hovered near a six-week high as risk assets fell out of favour on growing worries about an impending U.S. recession, sending global yields plunging. U.S. markets received a clear warning of coming recession on Friday when the spread between yields on three-month Treasury bills and 10-year notes fell below zero for the first time since 2007 after U.S. manufacturing data missed estimates. U.S. manufacturing activity unexpectedly cooled in March, a troubling sign for the economy although the housing market showed signs lower interest rates were giving it a boost.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on negative note as oil prices kicked off the week trading with losses as concerns of a sharp economic slowdown outweighed supply disruptions from OPEC production cutbacks and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-affiliated allies such as Russia, together referred to as OPEC, have pledged to withhold around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil supply this year to prop up markets, with OPEC de-facto leader seen to be pushing for a crude prices of over $70 per barrel. The darkening economic outlook overshadowed the supply-side issues the oil market was facing amid supply cuts led by producer club OPEC as well as the U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran.

BASE METAL - Base metals prices may trade sideways path. Most base metals moved lower in early Asian trade on Monday, as investors worried about the prospect of a recession in the United States, the world's biggest economy. Copper stockpiles in ShFE warehouses fell slightly to 259,172 tonnes last week after a rapid build during a seasonal lull in demand. Chile's Antofagasta expects to reach an agreement with miner BHP to help ensure water supply at its Zalidvar copper mine in the country's northern desert, a company official told a Chilean newspaper on Friday. China Hongqiao Group said on Friday that a doubling of alumina sales helped offset lower aluminium production and prices, leaving its net profit steady in the second half of 2018. China reverted to being a net importer of alumina in February for the first month since April 2018, while its scrap metal imports plunged to just 160,000 tonnes, the lowest in customs website records going back to June 2014. Scrap copper imports stood at 60,000 tonnes.

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DAILY NIFTY SMART MOVERS 

SCRIPTS PRICE VOLUME (IN 000�S) PRE. CLOSE CHANGE (%) CHANGE (Rs.)

Edelweiss Financial 197.20 835.37 187.45 5.20 9.75

PNB 90.50 6837.29 86.55 4.56 3.95

Bank Of Baroda 124.30 1644.15 120.40 3.24 3.90

Bharti Infratel 326.90 150232.30 317.90 2.83 9.00

Federal Bank 93.70 809.65 91.35 2.57 2.35

DAILY NIFTY TOP LAGGARDS

SCRIPTS PRICE VOLUME (000�S) PRE. CLOSE CHANGE (%) CHANGE (Rs.)

Mah & Mah Finl. Serv 417.00 144.96 429.15 -2.83 -12.15

Eicher Motors 21704.00 83.22 22271.90 -2.55 -567.90

TVS Motor 478.25 149.05 489.75 -2.35 -11.50

JSW Steel 288.25 424.04 295.10 -2.32 -6.85

Hero MotoCorp 2615.40 59.10 2671.50 -2.10 -56.10

BEST CALL OF THE DAY (FINAL TG )

NIFTY FUTURE 

BUY NIFTY FUT FINAL TGT 

HNI OPTION 

BUY INFRATEL CALL 320 FINAL TGT 

BLUECHIP OPTION 

BUY ONGC CALL 150 FINAL TGT 

INDEX OPTION 

BUY NIFTY CALL 11000 FINAL TGT 

HNI FUTURE

SELL LT FUT BOOKED 50% 

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Market Update (Bullions)

Bullion counter may trade sideways to negative path as gold held steady on Thursday, supported by concerns over global growth as well as tepid equity markets, while a firm dollar curbed gains ahead of European Central Bank’s policy meeting due later in the day. The Organisation for Economic Co-Operation & Development cut forecasts again for the global economy in 2019 and 2020 as it warned that trade disputes and uncertainty over Brexit would hit world commerce and businesses. Gold can dip lower towards 31800 while it can face resistance near 32200. Silver can test 38000 while facing resistance near 38400. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that trade talks with China were moving along well and predicted either a “good deal” or no deal between the world’s two largest economies. Trump also said he would be very disappointed in North Korean leader Kim Jong Un if reports about rebuilding at a rocket launch site in North Korea were true

Market Update (Base Metals)

Base metals prices may trade with sideways to weak bias. Copper may test 450 while facing resistance near 460 in MCX. Chilean state-run miner Codelco will continue to develop its lithium assets, including committing $57 million for further exploration, Chile's mining minister told Reuters, even as progress has stagnated at its flagship projects. The premium of cash LME copper over the three-month contract stood at $31.50 a tonne on Wednesday, less than half the previous day's $70 a tonne in a sign of easing supply tightness. Zinc can test 195 while facing resistance near 198. Lead can dip further towards 146. Nickel can also test 935 while facing resistance near 960. Aluminum prices may trade in range of 143-145. Shanghai aluminium fell for the third straight day on Thursday to a near three-week low, due to rising inventories and Chinese demand concerns. China, the world's biggest consumer and producer of the metal, will report its February aluminium export figure on Friday. Shipments surged to a record high of 552,000 tonnes in January. Russia's Rusal, the world's largest aluminium producer outside China, said global aluminium demand is expected to rise by 3.7 percent in 2019 to 68 million tonnes as it posted a fourth-quarter adjusted net loss of $17 million.

Market Update (Energy)

Crude oil may open on positive note as oil edged up on Thursday amid ongoing OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions against exporters Venezuela and Iran, although prices were prevented from rising further by record U.S. crude output and rising commercial fuel inventories. Prices are being supported by efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other countries - a grouping known as ‘OPEC+’ - to withhold around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), a strategy designed to tighten markets. U.S. sanctions against the oil industries of OPEC members Iran and Venezuela have also had an impact, traders said. Venezuela’s state-run oil firm PDVSA this week declared a maritime emergency, citing trouble accessing tankers and personnel to export its oil amid the sanctions. Crude oil can test 4000 while taking support near 3930. U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose much more than expected last week, with inventories up by 7.1 million barrels to 452.93 million barrels EIA, according to a weekly report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. Natural gas may test 205 while taking support near 198 in MCX.

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BULLION - MCX Gold and Silver may note mixed trade in line with international market but bias remains on the downside. COMEX gold trades in a narrow range near $1315/oz after a 0.4% decline yesterday. Weighing on gold price is marginal gain in US dollar amid better than expected US economic data and no major cues from comments from Fed officials. US Q4 GDP growth slowed down from 3.4% to 2.6% but was slightly better than market expectations of 2.2% growth. Fed officials reaffirmed patient rate hike stance and end of bond reduction plan however there was no cues indicating further dovish tilt. ETF inflows also show weaker investor interest in gold. Gold holdings with SPDR ETF fell by 4.09 tonnes to 784.218 tonnes. Meanwhile, market players are eyeing geopolitical development and US-China trade talks. Tensions relating to US-North Korea rose as the two day summit ended abruptly. On other hand, no further escalation and reports of release of Indian air force pilot thawed concerns about India-Pakistan fight. On trade front, latest reports noted that US officials are preparing a final trade deal that President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping could sign in weeks. However, comments from US officials also indicated that more work needs to be done and the administration won't accept a deal that doesn't include significant "structural" changes to Chinese economy. Gold has been on a downtrend after failing to break the $1350/oz level and amid no fresh positive triggers however we expect the price to stabilize near $1310/oz levels as global economic and trade uncertainty will keep a floor to price. For the day, one should wait for higher levels to create short positions.

ENERGY- Crude Oil- MCX Crude oil may note mixed trade in line with international market but overall bias is on the upside. NYMEX crude trades above $57 per barrel after a 0.5% gain yesterday. Crude trades higher supported by sharp decline in US crude oil stocks, better than expected US economic data and OPEC�s stance to continue with production cuts despite US displeasure with higher price. Saudi Arabia has also indicated that they may extend production cuts into second half of 2019. Meanwhile, reports indicated higher compliance by OPEC members last month. As per JBC Energy, OPEC output fell by more than a half-million barrels in February. However, weighing on crude oil price are concerns about health of Chinese economy amid disappointing economic data. The US and global equity markets are also under pressure amid increased geopolitical uncertainty and as market players eye development relating to US-China trade talks. Also weighing on crude price is record high US crude production and reports that Canada has further reduced production cuts for the month of March amid signs of easing glut. Crude has recovered all the losses noted earlier this week and has moved back to recent highs however we still do not expect that price will break past the $58 per barrel. Hence, we recommend one to wait for corrective dips to consider fresh longs. Further cues will come from US economic data, development relating to US-China and US weekly rig activity report.

Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may note mixed trade in line with international market however bias may be on the

downside. NYMEX natural gas trades weaker near $2.8/mmBtu after a 0.5% gain yesterday. US EIA weekly report noted a 166 Bcf decline in US natural gas stocks which is more than 5-year average decline of 104 Bcf but less than market expectations of 174 Bcf decline. Also weighing on gas price is higher US gas production and nearing end of winter season. However, supporting price is forecast of cold weather in US which will keep heating demand high in the near term. Natural gas is consolidating in a range amid mixed cues as market players assess current high demand against nearing end of winter season. Natural gas may witness mixed trade but selling could be considered at higher levels as demand is unlikely to sustain. Further cues will come from US weather forecasts and US weekly rig activity repot.

BASE METAL - Most Base metals on LME trade lower today after noting mixed movement yesterday. LME Zinc was the best performer with 1.2% gains followed by 0.7% rise in Zinc prices. In other metals both Copper and Nickel ended nearly unchanged while Aluminium closed 0.6% lower.

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BULLION - MCX Gold and Silver may note mixed trade in line with international market but general bias is on the downside. COMEX gold trades in a narrow range near $1320/oz after a 0.5% decline yesterday. Gold fell yesterday amid marginal gain in US dollar and amid no new takeaway from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell�s testimony. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the Fed will stop shrinking its $4 trillion balance sheet later this year in line with market expectations post last week�s FOMC minutes. The US dollar managed to see some gains yesterday as comments from US officials fuelled seeds of uncertainty in US-China trade deal. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said US issues with China are "too serious" to be resolved by promises of more purchases of US goods by Beijing. However, weighing on US dollar is mixed US economic data, Fed�s patient rate hike stance and easing concerns about Brexit amid prospect of a delay. Amid other factors, gold is supported by increased geopolitical tensions relating to India and Pakistan and concerns about Trump administration as Michael Cohen, the president's former attorney, claimed that President Donald Trump committed crimes while in office. ETF investors moved to sidelines awaiting more clarity on price direction. Gold has been on a corrective phase after failing to breach $1350/oz level and has now slipped below $1330/oz level and could see extended decline till $1315/oz. Easing worries about US-China and Brexit and no further shift in Fed�s stance will weigh on price.

ENERGY- Crude Oil- MCX Crude Oil may note mixed trade in line with international market but overall bias is on the upside. NYMEX crude trades mixed near $57 per barrel after a sharp 2.6% rally yesterday. Crude has witnessed mixed trade in last few days as market players react to comments from US and Saudi Arabia. Crude plunged as US President expressed concerns about higher price and called upon OPEC to stabilize prices. Crude recovered as Saudi Arabia retorted Wednesday by saying that the twenty-five countries are taking a very slow and measured approach and that their production cut approach was appropriate. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia also signaled OPEC may continue production cuts in the second half of this year. Crude rose also as EIA weekly report noted an unexpected 8.647 million barrels decline in US crude oil stocks amid higher refinery demand and sharp plunge in weekly imports. EIA however noted that US crude production has inched up to a fresh record high level of 12.1 million barrels per day. Amid other factors, rally in US and global equity market came to a halt amid skepticism about US-China trade deal, mixed US economic data, slowdown in Chinese economy and increased geopolitical tensions. Risk sentiment weakened also as Michael Cohen, the president's former attorney, said that President Donald Trump committed crimes while in office. Crude may witness choppy trade amid mixed factors however the sharp decline in US crude stocks and OPEC�s insistence on continuing with production cuts will continue to support price.

Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may note some gains tracking cues from international exchange but upside is limited.

NYMEX natural gas trades higher near $2.8/mmBtu after a minor 0.1% gain yesterday. Natural gas trades higher amid positioning ahead of inventory report. US EIA weekly report today is expected to note a 174 Bcf decline in US natural gas stocks as against 5-year average decline of 104 Bcf. A bigger than average decline in stocks will widen the deficit in US market. Also supporting price is forecast of cold weather in large parts of US in early March which will keep heating demand high. However, weighing on price is subdued demand expectation with nearing end of winter season and higher US gas production. Natural gas may trade sideways to positive ahead of inventory report however the momentum will continue only if EIA notes a bigger than expected decline in stocks.

BASE METAL - Base metals on LME trade sideways to lower today after a positive close yesterday. LME Lead was the best performer with 2.1% gains followed by nearly 0.7% rise in Nickel prices and 0.6% gains in Aluminium prices. In other metals both Copper and Zinc ended with 0.2% gains.

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BULLION - MCX Gold and Silver may note some decline tracking cues from international exchange. COMEX gold trades weaker near $1341/oz after testing 10-month high of $1349.8/oz in previous session. Gold came under pressure amid some stability in US dollar post release of FOMC minutes. Minutes of Fed meeting showed that Fed officials are still upbeat on US economy and this has kept door open for another rate hike. Fed officials also discussed ending the bond reduction plan and may soon announce details on the same. FOMC minutes reaffirmed Fed�s patient rate hike stance and willingness to end balance sheet reduction plans however it was largely factored in and there was no fresh clue to add to Fed�s dovish stance hence we are seeing some stability in US dollar. Also market focus will now shift to ECB monetary policy minutes today. The central bank has maintained cautious tone on euro-zone economy and this will not bode well for euro. Market players are also eyeing trade related development. US-China trade talks are progressing however lack of concrete announcement will leave market players restless. Meanwhile, US President Trump on Wednesday said the US would impose tariffs on European car imports if it cannot reach a trade deal with the European Union. ETF inflows show some buying interest in gold with price near 10-month high. Gold holdings with SPDR ETF rose by 2.05 tonnes to 794.503 tonnes. Gold rallied sharply in last few days on expectations that FOMC minutes will add to Fed�s dovish tilt however lack of any fresh cue has resulted in some correction and this could extend further.

ENERGY- Crude Oil- MCX Crude may note mixed trade in line with international market however bias is still on the upside. NYMEX crude trades mixed near $57 per barrel after a 1.5% gain in previous session when it hit the highest level since Nov.2018. Supporting crude oil price is API weekly report which noted a smaller than expected 1.26 million barrel increase in US crude oil stocks and a decline in gasoline and distillate stocks. Crude oil also remains supported by OPEC�s adherence to production cuts. The OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee assessed compliance with the group's production curbs at 83% in January, the first month of the deal. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Russia have indicated that they will deepen cuts in coming months. US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran has also added to expectations of lower supply from OPEC. Meanwhile, supply concerns are also high amid partial closure of Saudi Arabia�s Safaniyah oilfield. Amid other factors, global equity markets turned choppy after FOMC minutes did not add to Fed�s dovish tilt. Fed maintained optimism about US economy keeping option open for a rate hike. US-China trade talks are progressing well but trade concerns rose as US President Trump on Wednesday said the US would impose tariffs on European car imports if it cannot reach a trade deal with the European Union.

Natural Gas- Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may note mixed trade in line with international market but sell on rise is suggested. NYMEX natural gas trades mixed near $2.65/mmBtu ahead of inventory report. US EIA is expected to note a 165 Bcf decline in US natural gas stocks as against 5-year average decline of 148 Bcf. A bigger than average decline will widen the deficit in the market but this has already been factored in. Also with the nearing end of winter season, stocks withdrawals are expected to normalize in coming days. On demand front, weather forecasts are indicating colder weather in parts of US which will increase heating demand. However, demand is also expected to wane down with end of winter season. Natural gas may remain rangebound ahead of inventory report but overall sell on rise will be ideal strategy. It is unlikely that the stock drop may be huge enough to refuel tightness concerns.

BASE METAL - Most Base metals on LME trade with a weaker bias today after closing on a higher note yesterday. LME Nickel was the best performer with 1.9% gains followed by 1.5% rally in Zinc prices and 1.4% gains in Copper prices. In other metals Lead and Aluminium too ended 1% and 0.65% higher respectively.

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Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647

 

For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com