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Showing posts with label mcx updates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mcx updates. Show all posts

Monday, 20 May 2019

 capitalstar
BULLION - Bullion counter may trade on the weaker bias on stronger local currency rupee amid expectation of clear majority to the present government in the exit polls. Gold steadied on Monday after four days of falls, as a Sino-U.S. trade dispute aggravated by a Huawei ban and U.S. President Donald Trump'ss latest threat to Tehran fuelled interest in the safe-haven metal. Gold fell to a two-week low of $1,274.51 an ounce on Friday after data showed U.S. consumer sentiment jumped to a 15-year high in early May amid growing confidence over the economy's outlook. U.S. President Donald Trump issued a new threat to Tehran on Sunday, tweeting that a conflict would be the official end of Iran, as Saudi Arabia warned it stood ready to respond with all strength's and said it was up to Iran to avoid war. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.4% to 736.17 tonnes on Friday from 733.23 tonnes on Thursday. Hedge funds and money managers raised their net long positions in COMEX gold in the week to May 14, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade with an upside bias as oil prices jumped as much as 1 percent on Monday after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid alFalih indicated there was a consensus among OPEC and allied oil producers to continue limiting supplies. The rally came after Falih said on Sunday there was a consensus among Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other non-OPEC producers to drive down crude inventories gently's '', but his country would remain responsive to the needs of what he called a fragile market. OPEC, Russia and other non-member producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, agreed to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day from Jan. 1 for six months, a deal designed to stop inventories building up and prices weakening. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $63.39 per barrel, up 63 cents, or 1%, from their previous settlement. 

BASE METAL - Base metals may remain with a weak bias on the stronger rupee. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange rose in early Asian trading on Monday after last week's slump, but Shanghai industrial metals edged down as investors remained wary about the intensifying U.S.-China trade war. Beijing has called on Washington to show "sincerity" if it is to hold meaningful trade talks, after the United States put China's Huawei Technologies Co Ltd [RIC:RIC: HWT.UL], the world's biggest telecoms equipment maker, on a trade blacklist. Zambia, Africa's second-biggest copper producer, is introducing a new non-refundable sales tax in place of value-added tax, despite criticism from mining companies. The United States struck deals on Friday to lift tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico, the three governments said, removing a major obstacle to legislative approval of a new North American trade pact.

Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Sunday, 21 April 2019


MCX Updates

BULLION - Bullion counter may open on positive note as gold prices steadied on Monday after falling to a near four-month low in the previous session, with the dollar gaining in the wake of indications that U.S. economic growth picked up in the first quarter. The dollar drifted higher against the euro and British pound on Monday, supported by the relative strength of the U.S. economy, though moves remained small as many investors were still away for the long Easter weekend. U.S. retail sales increased by the most in 1- 1/2 years in March as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, the latest indication that economic growth picked up in the first quarter after a false start, data showed on Thursday. Hedge funds and money managers switched to a net short position in COMEX gold in the week to April 16, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday. Gold premiums in top consumer China jumped to their highest in more than two years, as a drop in global prices and strengthening yuan encouraged purchases amid optimism about the state of the economy.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade in green as oil prices oil prices rallied by more than 2 percent on Monday to levels not seen since November 2018 as Washington is set to announce all imports of Iranian oil must end or be subject to sanctions. News that the United States is preparing to announce on Monday that all buyers of Iranian oil will have to end their imports shortly, or be subject to U.S. sanctions, was first reported on Sunday by Washington Post foreign policy and national security columnist Josh Rogin. The U.S. reimposed sanctions in November on exports of Iranian oil after President Donald Trump unilaterally pulled out of a 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and six world powers. Washington, however, granted Iran eight main buyers of oil, mostly in Asia, waivers to the sanctions which allowed them limited purchases for half-a-year. Iran biggest oil customers are China and India, who have both been lobbying for extensions to sanction waivers. 

BASE METAL - Base metals prices may trade with firm bias. China refined copper output came in at 705,000 tonnes in March, according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics on Friday. The bureau said the number was up 10.2 percent year-on-year but it is the lowest monthly total in records on the bureau website since June 2016. The most active aluminium contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) hit its highest since November 2018 on Monday, following a drop in inventories last week. Shanghai aluminium jumped to as high as 14,175 yuan ($2,114.44) a tonne, after data on Friday showed that aluminium stocks in warehouses tracked by ShFE dropped to 665,067 tonnes, their lowest weekly level since November 2017.



Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Thursday, 11 April 2019



BULLION - Bullion counter may witness some lower level buying after the yesterday sharp fall. Gold prices steadied on Friday, having posted their biggest daily decline in two weeks in the previous session after robust U.S. economic data lifted the dollar. The dollar held firm on Friday after strong U.S. labour and inflation data soothed concerns about the world largest economy, while falling oil prices weighed on commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian and Australian dollars. The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell to a 49-1/2-year low last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength that could temper expectations of a sharp slowdown in economic growth. U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday expressed a willingness to hold a third summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un but said in talks with South Korean President Moon Jae-in that Washington would leave sanctions in place on Pyongyang.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade higher as oil prices were firm on Friday, supported by ongoing supply cuts led by producer club OPEC and by U.S. sanctions on petroleum exporters Iran and Venezuela. Oil markets have been pushed up by more than a third this year by supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), U.S. sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuela, and escalating fighting in Libya. Production in Venezuela has been plunging as the U.S. sanctions add to a deep economic and political crisis, while the U.S. government is expected to tighten oil sanctions against Iran in May. OPEC and its allies will meet in June to decide whether to continue withholding supply, and while OPEC de-facto leader, Saudi Arabia, is seen to be keen to continue cutting, sources with the group said it may raise output from July if disruptions elsewhere continue. 

BASE METAL - Base metals prices may trade with sideways bias. London copper prices edged up on Friday amid a weaker U.S. dollar, while nickel contracts in both London and Shanghai fell despite analyst warnings of supply shortages. The dollar was down against a basket of major currencies on Friday, making it cheaper for buyers using other currencies to purchase greenback-denominated metals. The global nickel market will face grave supply shortages unless key Chinese-led projects in Indonesia come online in a timely manner, analysts said on Thursday. London nickel fell 0.6 percent, after declining 1.9 percent in the previous session in its biggest drop in four weeks. Shanghai nickel declined 2.4 percent. LME nickel inventory continued to hover around its lowest level since 2013, while on-warrant nickel inventory in warehouses tracked by ShFE stayed around its lowest since 2015. 




Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Thursday, 4 April 2019

mcx updates

BULLION - Bullion counter may trade with sideways path as investors will eye the outcome of nonfarm payroll data due later today. Gold was little changed on Friday, having slid to its lowest level in 10-weeks in the previous session as the dollar strengthened ahead of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due later in the day. The dollar rose to a three-week high versus the yen on Friday, lifted by expectations that a protracted trade dispute between the United States and China would be resolved soon. The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell to a nearly half-century low last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength despite slowing economic growth. Pro-Brexit lawmakers in Britain upper house of parliament tried on Thursday to thwart the approval of a new law that would force Prime Minister Theresa May to seek a delay to prevent a disorderly EU exit on April 12 without a deal.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on negative note as oil prices fell on Friday, with Brent slipping away from the $70 mark after briefly rising above that level in the previous session, as traders fretted about progress in U.S.-China talks to end a trade war. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday a trade deal with China was getting very close and could be reached in about four weeks, but he said sticking points included tariffs and intellectual property theft. Brent has gained nearly 30 percent this year, while WTI has risen nearly 40 percent, underpinned by U.S. sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan crude, OPEC production cuts and rising global demand. U.S. natural gas futures fell to a six-week low on Thursday on a bigger-than-expected storage build and forecasts that warmer-than-usual weather over the next two weeks will keep heating demand low.

BASE METAL - Base metals prices may trade in green as London industrial metals rose on Friday, supported by news that the United States and China are edging closer to a trade deal after months of dispute. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday a trade deal with China could be reached in about four weeks, but he issued a warning to Beijing that, absent a pact, it would be difficult to allow trade to continue. The Shanghai Futures Exchange is closed on Friday for the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday and will reopen on Monday. In Indonesia, a mudslide at Freeport-McMoran Grasberg mine, the world second-largest copper mine, injured two workers while two others were missing on Wednesday. Concerns over copper supply disruption increased as a Peruvian judge on Wednesday ordered jail time for lawyers representing indigenous villagers who have blockaded shipments from Las Bambas copper mine operated by Chinese miner MMG Ltd . 


Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Thursday, 28 March 2019



BULLION - Bullion counter may trade with negative path. Gold prices suffered strong double-digit losses and hit a three-week low today, while the silver market was hammered to a three-month low. The precious metals bulls are fading fast late this week amid a resurgent U.S. dollar index that is pushing toward its recent multi-month high. The U.S. economic data point of the day was the third and final reading on fourth-quarter gross domestic product. GDP came in at up 2.2%, which was right in line with the consensus forecast and compares to the last 4Q estimate of up 2.6%. At the same time the U.S. jobless claims report came in and showed a drop in the latest week. The U.S. dollar index began its rally today right after those U.S. data releases.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on positive note as oil prices rose on Friday, pushed up by ongoing supply cuts led by producer club OPEC and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, which have given crude markets the biggest first quarter price push since 2009.Oil prices have been supported for much of 2019 by efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-affiliated allies like Russia, known as OPEC+, who have pledged to withhold around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply this year to prop up markets. Production cuts from the OPEC+ group of producers have been the main reason for the dramatic recovery since the 38 percent price slump seen during the final quarter of last year. 

BASE METAL - Base metals prices may trade sideways to positive path. Most base metals rose on Friday, with London copper heading for its first quarterly gain since the end of 2017, as hopes of progress in U.S.-China trade talks lent support. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Friday he had aproductive working dinner the previous night in Beijing, as he headed to a state guest house to begin a day of trade talks. Aluminum Corp of China Ltd recorded a 16 percent rise in aluminium production in 2018 to 4.17 million tonnes, the company, known as Chalco. The jump was enough for it overtake Russia Rusal as the world second-biggest publicly traded producer of the metal. Rusal produced 3.753 million tonnes last year.




Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Wednesday, 27 March 2019


BULLION - Bullion counter may trade with volatile path. Gold and silver prices are modestly down amid mild profit-taking pressure from recent gains and a firmer U.S. dollar index on this day helped to pressure the precious metals markets. Gold investors should pay more attention to what the Federal Reserve is actually doing instead of listening to comments from a Federal Reserve governor nominee, according to two market professionals. Stephen Moore, President Donald Trump nominee for the U.S. Central Bank, is raising eyebrows after he said, in an interview with the New York Times Tuesday, that the Federal Reserve should immediately cut interest rates by 50 basis points. The comments come as a surprise to markets which are still digesting last week monetary policy meeting that saw the U.S. central bank signal that it does not expect to raise interest rates this year and downgraded its economic growth forecasts.

ENERGY- Crude oil may trade on negative note as oil prices fell on Thursday, extending losses into a second straight session, after widely watched data showed a surprising increase in U.S. stocks. Prices came under pressure from a rise in U.S. inventories, athough analysts pointed to support from efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and nonaffiliated allies like Russia, known as OPEC+, to trim output. Prices came under pressure from a rise in U.S. inventories, athough analysts pointed to support from efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-affiliated allies like Russia, known as OPEC+, to trim output. U.S. utilities likely withdrew 40 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas from storage last week amid typical temperatures for the period.

BASE METAL - Base metals prices may trade sideways to negative path. London copper prices edged lower in early Asian trade on Thursday as the dollar strengthened, while investors awaited news from U.S.-China trade talks restarting in Beijing. The 10-member China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) will meet in Shanghai on Thursday to determine floor treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for copper concentrate in the second quarter. The dollar rose on Thursday as many of its peers weakened after more central banks opted to shift to a dovish policy stance in the wake of deteriorating economic prospects. Indonesia's nickel-related industries such as the production of stainless steel and battery materials are set to surpass the value of its second-biggest export earner, palm oil, in the next 10 to 15 years, its investment board chief said on Wednesday. Aluminium touched a one-week high on Wednesday as inventories fell and prices shrugged off another step towards a full restart of Norsk Hydro Brazil alumina operations.




Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Tuesday, 19 March 2019

mcx updates

BULLION - Bullion counter may trade with sideways to negative bias as gold prices snapped three consecutive sessions of gains on Wednesday as the dollar firmed, while investors awaited the results of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting later in the day. Major currencies stuck to tight ranges in early Asian trading on Wednesday as investors awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve's March policy meeting later in the day. Traders currently expect there will be no U.S. rate hikes this year, and is even building in bets for a rate cut in 2020. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at a news conference on Wednesday. Prime Minister Theresa May will ask the European Union to delay Brexit by at least three months after her plan to hold a third vote on her fraught divorce deal was thrown into disarray by a surprise intervention from the speaker of parliament. The United States imposed sanctions on Tuesday against Venezuela's state-run gold mining company Minerven and its president, Adrian Perdomo, accusing them of illicit operations and propping up the government of President Nicolas Maduro.

ENERGY- Crude oil (Apr) may trade on sideways path as it may trade in range of 4070-4120 in MCX. Oil prices dipped on Wednesday, retreating from a four-month high as economic growth concerns dampened the outlook for fuel consumption. The dips come after crude prices rose by more than a quarter this year, pushed up by a pledge led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to withhold around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply as well as by U.S. sanctions against oil exporters Iran and Venezuela. Between those price levels, Ruecker said "the U.S. shale boom almost fully meets global oil demand growth mirrored by the strongly expanding crude oil exports," which hit a record 3.6 million bpd in February. U.S. natural gas futures edged up to a two-week high on Tuesday on forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand next week than previously expected.

BASE METAL - Base metals prices may trade with weak bias as most industrial metals on the London Metal Exchange fell on Wednesday, shrugging off some gains in the previous sessions as investors turned cautious ahead of the result of the U.S. Federal Reserve rate meeting later in the day. LME zinc stocks have fallen by 1.18 million tonnes from their 2012 peak. The exchange's stock reports have thrown up many surprises over the intervening years, with the downtrend sporadically interrupted by mass movements of off-market metal onto LME warrant, particularly in New Orleans. But the New Orleans zinc round-about appears to have ground to a halt. The last significant inflow at the port was in October and there have been no arrivals at all this year. The only zinc to enter the LME warehouse system in 2019 has been a highly modest 2,150 tonnes at the Spanish port of Bilbao and a single-lot delivery of 25 tonnes at the Belgian port of Antwerp.




Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Wednesday, 6 March 2019

 

Market Update (Bullions)
Bullion counter may trade sideways to negative path as gold held steady on Thursday, supported by concerns over global growth as well as tepid equity markets, while a firm dollar curbed gains ahead of European Central Bank’s policy meeting due later in the day. The Organisation for Economic Co-Operation & Development cut forecasts again for the global economy in 2019 and 2020 as it warned that trade disputes and uncertainty over Brexit would hit world commerce and businesses. Gold can dip lower towards 31800 while it can face resistance near 32200. Silver can test 38000 while facing resistance near 38400. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that trade talks with China were moving along well and predicted either a “good deal” or no deal between the world’s two largest economies. Trump also said he would be very disappointed in North Korean leader Kim Jong Un if reports about rebuilding at a rocket launch site in North Korea were true

Market Update (Base Metals)
Base metals prices may trade with sideways to weak bias. Copper may test 450 while facing resistance near 460 in MCX. Chilean state-run miner Codelco will continue to develop its lithium assets, including committing $57 million for further exploration, Chile's mining minister told Reuters, even as progress has stagnated at its flagship projects. The premium of cash LME copper over the three-month contract stood at $31.50 a tonne on Wednesday, less than half the previous day's $70 a tonne in a sign of easing supply tightness. Zinc can test 195 while facing resistance near 198. Lead can dip further towards 146. Nickel can also test 935 while facing resistance near 960. Aluminum prices may trade in range of 143-145. Shanghai aluminium fell for the third straight day on Thursday to a near three-week low, due to rising inventories and Chinese demand concerns. China, the world's biggest consumer and producer of the metal, will report its February aluminium export figure on Friday. Shipments surged to a record high of 552,000 tonnes in January. Russia's Rusal, the world's largest aluminium producer outside China, said global aluminium demand is expected to rise by 3.7 percent in 2019 to 68 million tonnes as it posted a fourth-quarter adjusted net loss of $17 million.

Market Update (Energy)

Crude oil may open on positive note as oil edged up on Thursday amid ongoing OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions against exporters Venezuela and Iran, although prices were prevented from rising further by record U.S. crude output and rising commercial fuel inventories. Prices are being supported by efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other countries - a grouping known as ‘OPEC+’ - to withhold around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), a strategy designed to tighten markets. U.S. sanctions against the oil industries of OPEC members Iran and Venezuela have also had an impact, traders said. Venezuela’s state-run oil firm PDVSA this week declared a maritime emergency, citing trouble accessing tankers and personnel to export its oil amid the sanctions. Crude oil can test 4000 while taking support near 3930. U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose much more than expected last week, with inventories up by 7.1 million barrels to 452.93 million barrels EIA, according to a weekly report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. Natural gas may test 205 while taking support near 198 in MCX.


Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Thursday, 28 February 2019


BULLION - MCX Gold and Silver may note mixed trade in line with international market but bias remains on the downside. COMEX gold trades in a narrow range near $1315/oz after a 0.4% decline yesterday. Weighing on gold price is marginal gain in US dollar amid better than expected US economic data and no major cues from comments from Fed officials. US Q4 GDP growth slowed down from 3.4% to 2.6% but was slightly better than market expectations of 2.2% growth. Fed officials reaffirmed patient rate hike stance and end of bond reduction plan however there was no cues indicating further dovish tilt. ETF inflows also show weaker investor interest in gold. Gold holdings with SPDR ETF fell by 4.09 tonnes to 784.218 tonnes. Meanwhile, market players are eyeing geopolitical development and US-China trade talks. Tensions relating to US-North Korea rose as the two day summit ended abruptly. On other hand, no further escalation and reports of release of Indian air force pilot thawed concerns about India-Pakistan fight. On trade front, latest reports noted that US officials are preparing a final trade deal that President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping could sign in weeks. However, comments from US officials also indicated that more work needs to be done and the administration won't accept a deal that doesn't include significant "structural" changes to Chinese economy. Gold has been on a downtrend after failing to break the $1350/oz level and amid no fresh positive triggers however we expect the price to stabilize near $1310/oz levels as global economic and trade uncertainty will keep a floor to price. For the day, one should wait for higher levels to create short positions.

ENERGY- Crude Oil- MCX Crude oil may note mixed trade in line with international market but overall bias is on the upside. NYMEX crude trades above $57 per barrel after a 0.5% gain yesterday. Crude trades higher supported by sharp decline in US crude oil stocks, better than expected US economic data and OPEC�s stance to continue with production cuts despite US displeasure with higher price. Saudi Arabia has also indicated that they may extend production cuts into second half of 2019. Meanwhile, reports indicated higher compliance by OPEC members last month. As per JBC Energy, OPEC output fell by more than a half-million barrels in February. However, weighing on crude oil price are concerns about health of Chinese economy amid disappointing economic data. The US and global equity markets are also under pressure amid increased geopolitical uncertainty and as market players eye development relating to US-China trade talks. Also weighing on crude price is record high US crude production and reports that Canada has further reduced production cuts for the month of March amid signs of easing glut. Crude has recovered all the losses noted earlier this week and has moved back to recent highs however we still do not expect that price will break past the $58 per barrel. Hence, we recommend one to wait for corrective dips to consider fresh longs. Further cues will come from US economic data, development relating to US-China and US weekly rig activity report.

Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may note mixed trade in line with international market however bias may be on the
downside. NYMEX natural gas trades weaker near $2.8/mmBtu after a 0.5% gain yesterday. US EIA weekly report noted a 166 Bcf decline in US natural gas stocks which is more than 5-year average decline of 104 Bcf but less than market expectations of 174 Bcf decline. Also weighing on gas price is higher US gas production and nearing end of winter season. However, supporting price is forecast of cold weather in US which will keep heating demand high in the near term. Natural gas is consolidating in a range amid mixed cues as market players assess current high demand against nearing end of winter season. Natural gas may witness mixed trade but selling could be considered at higher levels as demand is unlikely to sustain. Further cues will come from US weather forecasts and US weekly rig activity repot.

BASE METAL - Most Base metals on LME trade lower today after noting mixed movement yesterday. LME Zinc was the best performer with 1.2% gains followed by 0.7% rise in Zinc prices. In other metals both Copper and Nickel ended nearly unchanged while Aluminium closed 0.6% lower.


Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Wednesday, 27 February 2019



BULLION - MCX Gold and Silver may note mixed trade in line with international market but general bias is on the downside. COMEX gold trades in a narrow range near $1320/oz after a 0.5% decline yesterday. Gold fell yesterday amid marginal gain in US dollar and amid no new takeaway from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell�s testimony. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the Fed will stop shrinking its $4 trillion balance sheet later this year in line with market expectations post last week�s FOMC minutes. The US dollar managed to see some gains yesterday as comments from US officials fuelled seeds of uncertainty in US-China trade deal. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said US issues with China are "too serious" to be resolved by promises of more purchases of US goods by Beijing. However, weighing on US dollar is mixed US economic data, Fed�s patient rate hike stance and easing concerns about Brexit amid prospect of a delay. Amid other factors, gold is supported by increased geopolitical tensions relating to India and Pakistan and concerns about Trump administration as Michael Cohen, the president's former attorney, claimed that President Donald Trump committed crimes while in office. ETF investors moved to sidelines awaiting more clarity on price direction. Gold has been on a corrective phase after failing to breach $1350/oz level and has now slipped below $1330/oz level and could see extended decline till $1315/oz. Easing worries about US-China and Brexit and no further shift in Fed�s stance will weigh on price.

ENERGY- Crude Oil- MCX Crude Oil may note mixed trade in line with international market but overall bias is on the upside. NYMEX crude trades mixed near $57 per barrel after a sharp 2.6% rally yesterday. Crude has witnessed mixed trade in last few days as market players react to comments from US and Saudi Arabia. Crude plunged as US President expressed concerns about higher price and called upon OPEC to stabilize prices. Crude recovered as Saudi Arabia retorted Wednesday by saying that the twenty-five countries are taking a very slow and measured approach and that their production cut approach was appropriate. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia also signaled OPEC may continue production cuts in the second half of this year. Crude rose also as EIA weekly report noted an unexpected 8.647 million barrels decline in US crude oil stocks amid higher refinery demand and sharp plunge in weekly imports. EIA however noted that US crude production has inched up to a fresh record high level of 12.1 million barrels per day. Amid other factors, rally in US and global equity market came to a halt amid skepticism about US-China trade deal, mixed US economic data, slowdown in Chinese economy and increased geopolitical tensions. Risk sentiment weakened also as Michael Cohen, the president's former attorney, said that President Donald Trump committed crimes while in office. Crude may witness choppy trade amid mixed factors however the sharp decline in US crude stocks and OPEC�s insistence on continuing with production cuts will continue to support price.

Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may note some gains tracking cues from international exchange but upside is limited.
NYMEX natural gas trades higher near $2.8/mmBtu after a minor 0.1% gain yesterday. Natural gas trades higher amid positioning ahead of inventory report. US EIA weekly report today is expected to note a 174 Bcf decline in US natural gas stocks as against 5-year average decline of 104 Bcf. A bigger than average decline in stocks will widen the deficit in US market. Also supporting price is forecast of cold weather in large parts of US in early March which will keep heating demand high. However, weighing on price is subdued demand expectation with nearing end of winter season and higher US gas production. Natural gas may trade sideways to positive ahead of inventory report however the momentum will continue only if EIA notes a bigger than expected decline in stocks.

BASE METAL - Base metals on LME trade sideways to lower today after a positive close yesterday. LME Lead was the best performer with 2.1% gains followed by nearly 0.7% rise in Nickel prices and 0.6% gains in Aluminium prices. In other metals both Copper and Zinc ended with 0.2% gains.



Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Monday, 25 February 2019


MCX Updates

BULLION - MCX Gold and silver may witness choppy trade in line with international market but bias may be on the downside. COMEX gold trades in a narrow range near $1330/oz after 0.2% decline yesterday. Gold has corrected from recent highs but has turned range bound awaiting more clarity on US China trade issue, Brexit and Fed�s monetary policy. US President has decided to extend the March 1 deadline to impose higher tariffs on Chinese imports and also plans to meet Chinese President to finalize the deal. However, President Trump also said Monday an agreement "might not happen at all� and this fuelled some nervousness in the market. On Brexit front, UK Prime Minister has delayed a final vote to March 12 while there are report that Theresa May is considering a plan to delay Brexit. Fed has maintained patient rate hike stance but recent FOMC minutes showed that the central bank is not that dovish. Further clarity will come from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell�s testimony. ETF outflows show weakening confidence in gold�s price gains. Gold holdings with SPDR ETF fell by 1.1 tonnes to 788.331 tonnes. Gold may witness range bound movement unless we get more clarity on US China trade issue and Feds monetary policy stance however bias may be on the downside as risk sentiment has improved while ETF outflow continue.

ENERGY- Crude Oil- MCX Crude may witness choppy trade in line with international market but buying could emerge at lower levels. NYMEX crude trades weaker near $55 per barrel after a sharp 3.1% decline yesterday. Crude oil came under pressure post US President�s comments on higher price. US President Donald Trump tweeted that prices are too high and called on OPEC to �relax and take it easy�� President Trump last year had expressed concerns about higher crude price which were near 4-year high and this caused OPEC to consider a production hike. Market reacted sharply to Trump�s comments yesterday amid concerns that OPEC may come under pressure and stop production cuts however OPEC is unlikely to bide under pressure as price are still not that high. Also weighing on crude oil are reports of restart of crude production at Saudi Arabia�s 1 million barrel per day Safaniyah oilfield. Equity markets also turned choppy after initial enthusiasm over US-China trade progress. Also weighing on crude price is expectations of another increase in US crude oil stocks. However, supporting price is OPEC�s production cuts and supply issues relating to Venezuela and Iran. Easing worries about US-China trade dispute is also supportive for commodities at large. Crude rallied over 25% since start of the year without any significant correction. The sell-off was long overdue and President Trump�s comments were just the trigger. We believe that market overreacted to President Trump�s comments and we could see some stability in coming sessions. Focus today will be on US economic data and any comments from OPEC post Trump�s statement.

Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may note some gains tracking cues from international exchange. NYMEX natural gas trades mixed near $2.8/mmBtu after a sharp 4% rally in previous session. Supporting gas price is forecast of cold weather in US which will increase heating demand. Also supporting price is supply outage in Texas and expectations of another bigger than average decline in gas stocks. However, weighing on price is nearing end of high demand winter season and higher US gas production. Natural gas lately plunged to 1 year low and we are now seeing some recovery. While cold weather in US has lent support to price, the gains are partly also due to short covering ahead of contract expiration. Natural gas has broken the $2.8/mmBtu level and could see some extended gains.

BASE METAL - Base metals on LME trade sideways to lower today after noting a volatile session yesterday. LME Lead was the best performer with 0.6% gains followed by nearly unchanged Copper prices. In other metals, Aluminium Nickel and Zinc closed 0.4%, 0.1% and 0.2% lower respectively. 



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