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Showing posts with label sebi registered advisory company. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sebi registered advisory company. Show all posts

Thursday, 6 December 2018


BULLION:-

Gold prices rose slightly on Friday and were headed for their best week in 15, as the dollar weakened following a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, while investors awaited U.S. nonfarm payroll data for clues about the health of the world's top economy. Atlanta Federal Reserve bank president Raphael Bostic on Thursday said he felt the Fed should continue raising rates towards a "neutral" level, noting that despite recent market volatility and increasing uncertainty, he did not see "any indications of a material weakening in the macroeconomic data at the moment." The U.S. economy is "performing very well overall," Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said, capping a week of widespread market nervousness with a reminder that the U.S. economy continues to expand. Asian share markets tried to find their footing on Friday as speculation the Federal Reserve might be "one-and-done" with U.S. rate hikes helped salve some wounds after a punishing week.

METALS:-

London copper slid to a low of $6,080/mt on Thursday as shorts added their positions after the contract climbed to a high of $6,120.5/mt. LME copper later rebounded to end at $6,134.5/mt. After opening in the red, the SHFE 1902 contract fluctuated overnight and closed at 48,950 yuan/mt. As both LME and SHFE copper have fallen below all short-term moving averages, copper prices are expected to remain weak and trade range bound at lows today. LME copper is likely to trade at $6,080-6,120/mt today with the SHFE 1902 contract at 48,600-49,000 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 120-320 yuan/mt. London nickel slumped on Thursday and ended at $10,860/mt. After opening lower, the SHFE 1901 contract fell to 88,640 yuan/mt overnight as shorts added and longs cut their bets. It clawed back some losses in later trades and closed at 89,010 yuan/mt. With worries over an escalation in the US-China trade tensions on Huawei CFO arrest, We expect LME nickel to weaken when hovering around $10,900/mt today and the SHFE 1901 contract to trade at 88,500-90,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 88,500-98,000 yuan/mt.

ENERGY:-

Oil prices fell on Friday, pulled down by OPEC's decision to delay a final decision on output cuts, awaiting support from non-OPEC heavyweight Russia. The declines came after crude slumped by almost 3 percent the previous day, with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) ending a meeting at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on Thursday without announcing a decision to cut crude supply, instead preparing to debate the matter on Friday.Has decided to meet Friday again...(as) Russia remains the sticking point," said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia/Pacific at futures brokerage Oanda in Singapore. "We are beginning to witness the outline of the next iteration of production cuts, with OPEC conforming to cut its own production by around 1 million barrels per day, with the cartel lobbying non-OPEC members to contribute more," Japanese bank MUFG said in a note. Oil producers have been hit by a 30-percent plunge in crude prices since October as supply surges just as the demand outlook weakens amid a global economic slowdown. Output from the world's biggest producers - OPEC, Russia and the United States - has increased by 3.3 million bpd since the end of 2017, to 56.38 million bpd, meeting almost 60 percent of global consumption.


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Thursday, 27 September 2018



BULLION:-

Gold prices held close early Friday to near six-week lows hit in the previous session, as the dollar firmed after upbeat U.S. economic data supported the Federal Reserve’s resolve for steady interest rate hikes over the next year. Spot gold was up 0.1 percent to $1,183.58 at the time of writing. On Thursday, the metal fell about 1 percent and touched its lowest since Aug. 17 at $1,181.61 an ounce. Spot gold is down about 1.3 percent for the week, on track for its fourth weekly decline in five. The dollar stood tall against its peers on Friday, and hovered near a nine-month high versus the yen. U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second quarter at its fastest pace in nearly four years as previously estimated, putting the economy on track to hit the Trump administration’s goal of 3 percent annual growth. The U.S. economy does not face a large chance of a recession in the next two years and the Fed plans to keep gradually raising interest rates, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday.  

METALS:-

Shanghai aluminium prices dropped for a fourth session on Friday and were on course for their steepest monthly drop since March after China decided not impose blanket cuts on industrial output in 28 northern cities this winter. The production cuts are to be determined by local authorities, which the market expects to mean less restrictions on aluminium supply. Shanghai aluminium fell as much as 1.5 percent to 14,275 yuan ($2,073.02) a tonne, the lowest since July 23. The metal is heading for a 4.3 percent drop in September. London Metal Exchange aluminium nudged up 0.1 percent to $2,031.50 a tonne. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.5 to $6,214 a tonne, at the time of writing, snapping four straight sessions of declines. It has fallen 2.6 percent this week, putting it on course for its steepest weekly fall in six, although it is also heading for a 3.7 percent gain over September, which would be its best month since December 2017.  

ENERGY:-

Oil prices inched up on Friday, with investors trying to gauge the potential impact on supply from looming U.S. sanctions on Iran’s crude exports. The most-active Brent crude futures contract, for DecemberLCOZ8, had risen 18 cents, or 0.22 percent, to $81.56 per barrel at the time of writing. That was close to a four-year high of $82.55 struck on Tuesday. With the expiration of the Brent November futures contract later on Friday, the front-month contract will become the December contract. U.S futures were up 21 cents, or 0.29 percent, at $72.33 per barrel, on track for a weekly gain. The sanctions kick in on Nov. 4, with Washington asking buyers of Iranian oil to cut imports to zero to force Tehran to negotiate a new nuclear agreement and to curb its influence in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is expected to quietly add extra oil to the market over the next couple of months to offset the drop in Iranian production, but is worried it might need to limit output next year to balance global supply and demand as the United States pumps more crude.  




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Tuesday, 4 September 2018



BULLION:-

Gold on Wednesday held near one-week lows touched in the previous session, as global trade tensions and emerging market concerns boosted demand for the U.S dollar, undermining the metal’s safe haven status. Emerging markets stocks and currencies were under added pressure on concerns about inflation in Turkey and after data showed South Africa had slumped into recession in the second quarter. U.S. President Donald Trump could follow through on plans to impose levies on $200 billion more of Chinese imports after a public comment period on his proposed new tariffs on Chinese goods is set to end on Thursday. US-Canada trade talks were expected to resume on Wednesday after the last round ended on Friday with no deal to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Trump has told Congress he would sign a bilateral trade pact with Mexico. Gold has lost about 8.5 percent this year amid rising U.S. interest rates, trade disputes and the Turkish currency crisis, with investors parking their money in the dollar. US Treasury yields rose to three week highs on Tuesday after data showed that U.S. manufacturing activity accelerated to a more than 14-year high in August, and on heavy corporate debt supply. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 1.09 percent to 746.92 tonnes on Tuesday from Friday. ndia raised gold holdings by 6.8 tonnes to 573.1 tonnes in 2018 July, data from International Monetary Fund showed.

METALS:-

Shanghai copper hit its lowest in more than a year overnight and was down for a fifth straight day in early trade on Wednesday, tracking a 2.6 percent drop in London copper overnight as U.S.-China trade tensions continue to weigh on metals prices. Global miner BHP said on Wednesday it would spend $35.2 million to buy a 6.1 percent stake in SolGold PLC, the majority owner and operator of the promising Cascabel copper-gold project in Ecuador. A company owned by Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov's holding company said on Tuesday it had started construction of a massive mining and metallurgical plant at the Udokan copper deposit in a remote region in eastern Siberia. Some warehouse firms want the London Metal Exchange to change its rules for delivering material so as to allow longer queues and boost revenues undermined by falling stocks. A vote by striking workers at Alcoa's giant west Australian operations will close on Thursday, with the union anticipating a strong "no" vote that could prolong the four-week old strike. Nickel hit its weakest since January on Tuesday, leading London metals lower as concerns over rising trade tensions between China and the United States benefited the dollar. Prices are “weighed down by an increase in nickel ore inventory at China and rising stainless steel inventory. The city of Binzhou in eastern China’s Shandong province, home to top aluminium producer China Hongqiao Group, is planning five new projects to support development of a high-end aluminium industry, according to a local government document.

ENERGY:-

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, partly reversing a strong jump from the previous day, as the impact of a tropical storm on U.S. Gulf coast production was not as strong as initially expected. Prices jumped the previous day as dozens of U.S. oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were shut in anticipation of tropical storm Gordon hitting the region. But the storm was shifting eastward late on Tuesday, reducing its threat to producers on the western side of the Gulf and most Gulf Coast refineries. There was also a typhoon hitting Japan's east coast overnight, with some damage to oil refineries in the Osaka region, although operators said operations were not significantly affected. Prices also hit by caution on the risks to oil demand if turmoil in emerging markets starts hitting economic growth. Emerging markets are a key driver of global oil demand growth, but several of them - especially Turkey and Argentina but also Indonesia and South Africa - have seen their currencies and stock markets come under pressure in recent months amid inflation, a strong U.S.-dollar and escalating global trade disputes.




Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.

Wednesday, 29 August 2018



BULLION:-

Gold prices inched lower in the morning session amid expectations of higher U.S. interest rates, but managed to hold above a key psychological level of $1,200 which acted as a strong support. Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,203.86 an ounce at the time of writing, after rising nearly 0.5 percent in the previous session. U.S. gold futures were down 0.1 percent at $1,209.90 an ounce. Spot gold has been trading in an $8 range for the past two sessions, with investors keenly watching the $1,200 level after the metal broke below that and hit a 1-1/2-year low of $1,159.96 early this month. Data showing a higher-than-expected annualized growth in second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product cemented expectations for a rate hike next month, with a 96 percent probability, according to Fed funds futures. Higher rates dent the appeal of noninterest-yielding gold, boosting the dollar in which the yellow metal is priced. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies stayed above a four-week low of 94.434 hit on Tuesday. The greenback has been on the defensive this week with safe-haven demand for the currency diminishing in the wake of improving risk sentiment in broader markets following promising NAFTA negotiations. Gold prices are heading for a fifth straight monthly fall, which would make it the precious metal’s longest losing streak since early 2013. The metal has declined about 7.4 percent so far this year amid international trade disputes and the Turkish currency crisis, with investors preferring the dollar as a safe haven.

METALS:-

London aluminium prices fell for the first time in six sessions in early Asian trade on Thursday, after U.S. President Donald Trump allowed relief on aluminium import quotas from Argentina. Trump, who put in place tariffs on steel and aluminium imports in March, signed proclamations allowing relief from the quotas on steel from South Korea, Brazil and Argentina and on aluminium from Argentina, the U.S. Commerce Department said in a statement on Wednesday. Three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.7 percent to $2,157 a tonne, after jumping 1.8 percent in the previous session. It hit a two-month high of $2,178 and has climbed for five straight days on rising input costs for smelters. Copper prices have recovered from a recent rout, but the possibility of the trade dispute between Washington and Beijing escalating and its potential to crimp demand in China, the world's top consumer, is expected to cap gains. Striking workers at state-owned Codelco's Andina copper mine have rejected their employers' latest contract offer, the company and union said on Wednesday.

ENERGY:-

Oil prices inched up on Thursday, extending solid gains from the previous session on a fall in U.S. crude inventories and expected disruptions to supply from Iran and Venezuela. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 14 cents at $69.65 a barrel. The rises came after crude hit multi-week highs during the previous session. U.S. commercial crude inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels in the week to Aug. 24, to 405.79 million barrels. U.S. production was flat from the previous week’s record 11 million barrels per day (bpd). The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), of which Iran is the third biggest producer, will discuss in December whether it can compensate for a sudden drop in Iranian oil supply after U.S sanctions against Tehran start in November, the head of Iraq’s state-oil marketer SOMO, Alaa al-Yasiri, said on Wednesday. Iran’s August crude oil exports will likely drop to just over 2 million bpd, versus a peak of 3.1 million bpd in April, as importers bow to American pressure to cut orders. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a tightening market toward the end of the year, due to a combination of supply concerns, such as Iran and also Venezuela, and strong demand especially in Asia.



Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.

Tuesday, 28 August 2018



BULLION:

Gold, however, has recovered after touching 1-1/2-year lows on Aug. 16 at $1,159.60 as the dollar's run slowed after U.S. President Donald Trump criticized the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates at a time when the government was trying to stimulate the economy. Spot gold may rise to $1,224 an ounce, as it has broken a resistance at $1,209 per ounce, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. shorts in COMEX gold contracts were at a record high. short positions will not be covered till you see a major trigger for buying," said Amit Kumar Gupta, portfolio management services head at Adroit Financial Services in New Delhi.

ENERGY:-


The monitoring committee of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) found that oil producers participating in a supply-reduction agreement, which includes non-OPEC member Russia, cut output in July by 9 percent more than called for. are now more confident that supply is likely to fall short of demand in the coming months, as reflected by a narrowing in the discount, or spread, between the October and November Brent futures contracts to around 26 cents a barrel LCOc1-LCOc2 , half of what it was a month ago. The findings of the OPEC monitoring committee for last month compare with a compliance level of 120 percent for June and 147 percent for May, meaning participants have been steadily increasing production, but at a more modest pace than some had expected.


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.

Tuesday, 21 August 2018


Gold regains strength as dollar sags after trump remark.

Gold prices rose on the back of a weaker US dollar on Tuesday, extending gains into a third session after US president Donald Trump said he was "not thrilled" with the US Federal Reserve for raising interest rates. Spot gold was up 0.3 per cent at $1,193.97.24 an ounce at 0054 GMT. It climbed 0.5 per cent in the previous session. US gold futures were up 0.5 per cent at $1,200.60 an ounce. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major peers, was down 0.4 per cent at 95.494. The dollar was down 0.2 per cent at 109.86 yen . Trump said on Monday he was "not thrilled" with the Federal Reserve under his own appointee, Chairman Jerome Powell, for raising interest rates and said the US central bank should do more to help him to boost the economy.

COPPER is extending its recovery.

Copper is extending its recovery from 1-1/2 year lows as the US and China once again prepare to sit at the negotiating table to discuss the trade tariff war. The negotiations come as the US starts public hearings on another $200 billion of proposed tariffs on Chinese imports. Hopes of a breakthrough are lifting ideas that a global slowdown may be avoided and hence keep demand for the industrial metal buoyant. Adding to the bullish news, workers at Chile’s Escondida mine inked a new labor contract last week, thereby avoiding a potential strike. Copper is poised for its fourth straight daily gain and has rallied 4.65% from the low on August 15. It is still down 19.3% from the June peak.

Decreasing inventories and upbeat fundamentals in China also buoyed nickel prices. 

As the dollar weakened, LME nickel climbed past $13,700/mt and closed at $13,615/mt on Monday. As longs added their positions, the SHFE 1811 contract hit a high of 112,830 yuan/mt before it edged down and closed at 112,180 yuan/mt overnight. Shrinking inventories and upbeat fundamentals front also buoyed nickel prices. We expect nickel prices to extend their gains today. LME nickel is likely to hover around $13,700 today with the SHFE 1811 contract trading at 112,000-113,500 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 112,000-114,000 yuan/mt.

Oil mixed on tighter U.S. outlook, while U.S.-China trade spat weighs.

 Oil prices were mixed on Tuesday, with U.S. fuel markets seen to be tightening while the Sino-U.S. trade dispute dragged on international crude contracts. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for September delivery CLc1 were up 27 cents, or 0.4 percent, at 0306 GMT, at $66.70 per barrel. The contract expires on Tuesday. The more active October futures were up 7 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $65.49 a barrel. Traders said U.S. markets were lifted by a tightening outlook for fuel markets in the coming months. Inventories in the United States for refined products such as diesel and heating oil for this time of year are at their lowest in four years.


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.


BULLION:-
Gold prices rose on the back of a weaker U.S. dollar on Tuesday, extending gains into a third session after U.S. president Donald Trump said he was “not thrilled” with the U.S. Federal Reserve for raising interest rates. Trump said on Monday he was “not thrilled” with the Federal Reserve under his own appointee, Chairman Jerome Powell, for raising interest rates and said the U.S. central bank should do more to help him to boost the economy. Asian stocks were capped in the wake of those comments from Trump and after he accused China and Europe of manipulating their currencies. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday he was maintaining his expectation for one more interest rate hike this year, as trade tensions and international events add some downside risk to an otherwise strong U.S. outlook. U.S. businesses have a message for the Trump administration: New tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports will force Americans to pay more for items they use throughout their daily lives, from cradles to first bicycles and wedding dresses to coffins. Turkish authorities detained two men suspected of shooting at the U.S. Embassy in the capital Ankara on Monday, in an attack that coincides with increased tensions between the two NATO allies over the trial of a U.S. pastor in Turkey. Meanwhile, Trump also said he did not expect much progress from trade talks with China this week in Washington. China, seeking to skirt U.S. sanctions, will use oil tankers from Iran for its purchases of that country’s crude, throwing Tehran a lifeline while European companies such as France’s Total are walking away due to fear of reprisals from Washington.

METALS:-
Base metals prices rose on Tuesday, with London copper climbing back above the $6,000-a-tonne mark, as the dollar slipped, making metals cheaper for holders of other currencies, while the market awaited U.S.-China trade talks in Washington. Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange have fallen by 18 percent from a four-year high touched on June 7 amid concerns a trade row between the United States and China, which have slapped billions of dollars in tariffs on each other's goods, will hit demand for industrial metals. Industrial metals got a lift from improving sentiment on China’s economy and a rise in the yuan. The Asian nation plans to send a delegation to the U.S. later this month, stoking hopes of a revival of trade talks. Meanwhile, orders to withdraw copper from warehouses tracked by the London Metal Exchange climbed the most since 2015 on Monday. Metal prices plunged last week, sending the LMEX Index to a one-year low, as turmoil fueled by Turkey’s financial woes spread across emerging markets. Currency moves have also set the direction for the market in recent weeks, with the stronger dollar and weaker Chinese yuan leading metal prices lower.

ENERGY:-
Crude oil futures were mixed during morning trade in Asia on Tuesday, with the NYMEX WTI contract ticking up on expected US crude stock draws. Analysts surveyed Monday by S&P Global Platts were expecting latest US crude stocks data to show a 3.37 million-barrel draw for the week ended August 17 -- they had also expected a decline in last week's survey, but stocks instead posted a 6.81 million-barrel build. The American Petroleum Institute is due to release its preliminary stocks report later Tuesday and the more definitive US Energy Information Administration report is due on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Brent prices reacted to supply news elsewhere, including reports that Saudi Arabia ramped up its crude exports, refinery runs and direct burn for power generation in June, which pressured prices lower. Saudi exports rose 260,000 b/d month on month to 7.244 million b/d in June, after falling to a seven-month low in May, according to latest data from the Riyadh-based Joint Organizations Data Initiative. Its refinery runs increased 190,000 b/d on month to 2.792 million b/d in June, the highest since December 2017. Iran on Sunday told OPEC that no member country should be allowed to take over any other member country's share of oil exports as OPEC prepares to pump more oil from the second half of 2018 to offset the loss of Iranian oil as a result of US sanctions.


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.



Monday, 20 August 2018


Gold regains strength amid planned U.S., China trade talks.

Spot gold prices bounced from 19-month lows on Thursday, as the U.S. dollar slipped on news that China and the United States will hold trade talks this month, although sentiment remained negative. Gold futures settled slightly down as the U.S. dollar came off its lows later in the trading session, yet remained negative. Spot gold XAU= gained 0.3 percent at $1,177.80 an ounce by 1:39 p.m. EDT (1739 GMT), from an earlier low of $1,159.96, it’s weakest since January last year. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 for December delivery settled down $1, or 0.1 percent, at $1,184 per ounce. Auto catalyst metal platinum is oversupplied. South Africa, the world's top platinum producer, saw its rand currency ZAR= hit a two-year low due to contagion from the Turkish lira earlier this week. A lower rand cuts costs for South African miners when expressed in dollars, which means they can keep producing and delaying the process of rebalancing the market.

Copper Tumbles into a Bear Market.

While the risk of a strike at BHP’s Escondido copper mine in Chile has temporarily wound down, the movement of Chinese yuan and the performance of Chinese economy would be key. Spot premiums are seen higher at 100-140 yuan/mt today given the early tumbles in futures prices. The euro zone’s surplus for goods traded with the rest of the world fell by less than forecast in June, suggesting the bloc may be weathering international trade frictions better than expected. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 212,000 for the week ended August 11, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Data for the prior week was revised to show 1,000 more applications received than previously reported.

Decreasing inventories and upbeat fundamentals in China also buoyed nickel prices.

LME nickel jumped past $13,400/mt before it met pressure at $13,500/mt and closed at $13,340/mt on Thursday. The SHFE 1811 contract climbed to 111,450 yuan/mt before it edged down, hovering around the daily moving average, and closed at 110,620 yuan/mt overnight. Decreasing inventories and upbeat fundamentals in China also buoyed nickel prices. We expect the prices to extend their gains today. LME nickel is likely to hover around $13,000/mt today and the SHFE 1811 contract is expected to trade at 110,000-111,500 yuan/mt with spot prices at 109,000-111,000 yuan/mt.

Oil prices slip amid fears over global economic growth.

Oil prices fell on Friday, with U.S. crude heading for a seventh weekly decline amid increasing concerns about slowing global economic growth that could hit demand for petroleum products as inventories build. China and the United States have implemented several rounds of trade tariffs and threatened further duties on exports worth hundreds of billions of dollars, which could knock global economic growth.At the same time, the crisis gripping the Turkish lira has rattled emerging markets and reverberated across equities, bonds and raw materials.U.S. data on Wednesday showed crude output C-OUT-T-EIA rose by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million bpd in the week ending Aug. 10.Crude inventories C-STK-T-EIA increased by 6.8 million barrels, representing the largest weekly rise since March last year.


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.

Sunday, 19 August 2018



BULLION:-
Most of the consumer demand is for light-weight variety, and investment demand for gold is sluggish due to rising interest rates, tighter credit norms, among other factors. Fall in rupee exchange rate has helped arrest impact of a sharp correction in the international prices of gold, which are down nine percent in the current calendar year, even as the price of domestic standard gold has remained more or less stagnant. However, prices in India are down 6.8 percent on average from their peaks. As a result, the country's price-sensitive customers are back in the market and demand is now expected to remain steady after the first half of subdued off taking. Indications are that jewelers have started restocking gold ahead of the festival season which is now just around the corner. However, most of the consumer demand is for jewelers and that too of the light-weight variety, and investment demand is sluggish due to rising interest rates, tighter credit norms among other factors. As a result, overall imports are likely to contract by at least 15 percent, market experts say.


METALS:-
The metal also trades nearly 10% lower year to date, failing to draw the support that might be expected amid geopolitical turmoil around trade-war worries and Turkey’s financial crisis, as focus remains almost exclusively pinned on the stronger dollar. The precious metal has mostly languished just below the psychologically important $1,200 level after dropping beneath this line for the first time in more than a year on Monday. A popular metals exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust GLD, +0.93% was up 0.3%, but poised for a weekly loss of 2.8%, while an ETF that tracks gold miners, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF GDX, +3.08% added 1.2% — trading down 10.5% on the week.“It is becoming increasingly clear that the yellow metal has struggled to maintain its safe-haven allure, with investors rushing to the dollar instead in these times of uncertainty,” said Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM, in a note Friday. “ With the greenback heavily supported by U.S. rate-hike expectations and safe-haven demand, gold is likely to witness further losses moving forward.” The weakness in the greenback Friday came on the heels of data from the University of Michigan showing that its consumer sentiment index fell to 95.3 in August, from 97.9 in July — the lowest level in 11 months. Meanwhile, after posting broad declines Thursday, industrial metals on Comex ended on a mixed note. Copper saw its September contract HGU8, +0.74%  inch up by 0.5% to $2.629 a pound. It still finished about 4.1% lower for the week.


ENERGY:-

The WTI Crude Oil market rallied significantly during the day on Friday, reaching as high as $66.40 before pulling back a bit. That being the case, it looks as if we are making a serious attempt at turning things around, or perhaps traders simply do not want to be short of oil going into the weekend. Either way, we have saved ourselves at a major uptrend line, so it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. If we can break above the $66.50 level, we could make a serious move towards $68. Otherwise, if we turn around and lose the $65 level again, this market could unwind rather drastically, especially if there strong trading in the US dollar. Brent markets also rallied but gave back quite a bit of the gains, causing me a bit of concern. The $71 level underneath offers plenty of support, but the $72.50 level above is plenty of resistance. As things look now, Brent has lagged WTI for some time, and may continue to do. The US dollar will have its say in this market as well, so if it strengthens that could send oil lower. There’s also concerns about Iranian oil coming off line, so that of course could be bullish. In short, I think this market is going to continue to be extraordinarily volatile and sideways overall.


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.

Wednesday, 15 August 2018


BULLION:-
Gold prices on Thursday hit their lowest in more than 19 months, with the US dollar holding steady near a recent peak as concerns about a Turkey crisis and China’s economic health weighed on emerging market currencies. The United States on Wednesday ruled out removing steel tariffs that have contributed to a currency crisis in Turkey even if Ankara frees a U.S. pastor, as Qatar pledged $15 billion in investment to Turkey, supporting a rise in the Turkish lira. The United States on Wednesday imposed sanctions on a Russian port service agency and Chinese firms for aiding North Korean ships and selling alcohol and tobacco to Pyongyang in breach of U.S. sanctions aimed at pressuring North Korea to end its nuclear programs. Some emerging market countries pared their holdings of U.S. Treasuries in June, data from the U.S. Treasury department showed on Wednesday, in what analysts viewed as a move to support their currencies as the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates this year. U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in July as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and clothing, suggesting the economy remained strong early in the third quarter. China’s state planner pledged on Wednesday to keep debt levels under control even as Beijing rolls out fresh stimulus to support the stumbling economy as a trade war with the U.S. deepens.

METALS:-
Copper prices fell to a fresh 13-month low after data showed fixed-asset investment in China slowed to a nearly two-decade low in the first seven months of the year. A strike had been averted at the world's largest copper mine put a cap on hopes of recovery for the bellwether metal. Reuters reported that management at Chile’s Escondida, said it struck a deal on Wednesday on a new labor contract with the union representing most of its workers. Large rises in zinc stocks stored in LME-approved warehouses have created $16 a tonne discount between the cash and threemonth contracts from a premium of about $60 a tonne at the end of July. LME stocks, at 256,175 tonnes, have jumped more than 10 percent since last week. China’s primary aluminium production climbed 12 percent in July from the same period a year ago, equalling its monthly record, as new smelters took output back towards levels before capacity closures in mid-2017. According to Japan's Ministry of Finance, Japan's Merchandise Trade Balance contracted by much more than expected, sinking to ¥-231.2 billion compared to the expected ¥-41.2 billion. The prior trade balance was ¥720.8 billion. The adjusted trade balance also missed and printed in contraction, coming in at ¥-45.6 billion versus the expected ¥20.7 billion surplus. Exports sank to 3.9% y/y compared to the forecast 6.3%; previous was 6.7%. Imports surged to 14.6% y/y, last was 2.6%. Exports to the US declined in July by 5.2% y/y, while exports to China lifted 11.9% y/y.

ENERGY:-

Oil prices plunged after government data showed a big, unexpected jump in stockpiles of U.S. crude, compounding pressure as the outlook for global economic growth darkened and the stock market slumped. After the American Petroleum Institute surprised markets by reporting a build of 3.66 million barrels for the week ending August 10, the Energy Information Administration confirmed a build, but reported that it had been significantly bigger at 6.8 million barrels. The EIA reported that at 414.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are a bit above the five-year average for the season. In gasoline, inventories were down by 700,000 barrels last week, compared with a build of 2.9 million barrels a week earlier but slightly above the seasonal average. Gasoline production averaged 10.2 million bpd, from 9.9 million bpd the week before last. Distillate inventories added 3.6 million barrels last week, after a build of 1.2 million barrels in the prior week, with production averaging 5.3 million bpd, up by 100,000 bpd on the previous week. Meanwhile, the market is worrying about supply from Venezuela and preparing for the last round of U.S. sanctions against Iran, which will target its oil industry specifically. Some oil bulls are preparing for oil prices of US$150 and even US$200, Reuters reported yesterday, citing prominent hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand and Jean-Louis Mee, chief executive of Westbeck Capital.


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Monday, 13 August 2018



BULLION:-

Gold prices traded steady on Tuesday, but hovered close to an 18-month low hit in the previous session. Gold prices sank below $1,200 per ounce on Monday to their lowest since late January 2017, losing out to U.S. Treasuries and a strong dollar as investors sought refuge from a financial market rout triggered by a crashing Turkish lira. Investors traditionally use gold as a means of preserving the value of their assets during times of political and economic uncertainty and inflation, but it has this year failed to benefit. Instead investors have made a beeline for U.S. Treasuries, seen as the ultimate safe haven, which meant they had to buy dollars. The lira has tumbled on worries over Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s increasing control over the economy and deteriorating relations with the United States. An investor flight to safety lifted U.S. Treasury yields from four weeks lows. The dollar index touched a 13-month high before paring gains. The higher greenback makes dollar-denominated assets more expensive for holders of other currencies, which subdues demand - a relationship used by funds to generate buy and sell signals from numerical models. Holdings of the largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF), New York’s SPDR Gold Trust, at 25.3 million ounces have dropped about 10 percent from their April peak and are at their lowest since February 2016.

BASE METALS:-

London copper prices drifted lower for a third straight session on Tuesday as the dollar stood tall versus other currencies on concerns that a rout in the Turkish lira could infect European banks and emerging economies. he Turkish lira was trading at 6.9100 per dollar in early Asian deals on Tuesday, compared with Monday’s record low of 7.24 after the central bank pledged to provide liquidity. The lira has lost more than 40 percent this month on concerns about President Tayyip Erdogan’s reluctance to raise interest rates despite rising inflation and a deepening diplomatic rift with the United States. Chinese industrial production and fixed asset investment growth came in below forecasts in July, with the latter falling to a record low as retail sales also disappointed. Fixed asset investment grew 5.5 per cent for the first seven months of the year, compared to the same period last year. A median forecast from economists polled by Reuters had forecast 6 per cent growth, in line with the previous month. The latest reading was the lowest on record, according to official data compiled by Wind Info and dating back to 1992.The slowdown in investment comes despite Beijing last month announcing a series of tax cuts and infrastructure spending in a bid to stimulate demand after the country's gross domestic product grew at its slowest pace since 2016 in the second quarter.

ENERGY:-


Oil prices rose on Tuesday after a report from OPEC confirmed that top exporter Saudi Arabia had cut production to avert looming oversupply. In July, Saudi Arabia told the producer group of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that it had cut production by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 10.288 million bpd. OPEC’s monthly report published on Monday, which uses data from secondary sources, confirmed the Saudi cut, which traders said triggered crude’s upward move early on Tuesday. That came despite the Saudi move coming in anticipation of a slowdown in oil demand. The OPEC report said it expected world oil demand to grow by 1.43 million bpd in 2019, down from 1.64 million bpd in 2018. OPEC said the demand slowdown would come on the back of potentially lower economic growth as a result of trade disputes between the United States and China as well as emerging market turmoil. Despite this, OPEC said overall oil demand would likely remain healthy. Chinese oil refinery output rose 11.6 percent in July from a year earlier, government data showed on Tuesday, with state-run plants operating at high rates but smaller independent refiners struggling with squeezed profit margins. Refinery throughput last month reached 50.95 million tonnes, or 11.95 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics. That compared to 12.11 million bpd in June.


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.