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Wednesday, 8 August 2018


Gold steady as dollar softens versus stabilizing yuan.

 Gold prices were steady early on Wednesday, after rising in the previous session, as the U.S. dollar softened against China's yuan and the euro. Asian shares rose on Wednesday on the back of firmer Wall Street earnings while expectations for increased Chinese stimulus helped take the edge off wider concerns about the worsening Sino-U.S. trade dispute The United States will begin collecting 25 percent tariffs on another $16 billion in Chinese goods on Aug. 23, the U.S. Trade Representative's office said on Tuesday as it published a final tariff list targeting 279 imported product lines. The European Parliament has agreed to ease tough new liquidity rules for banks trading gold, marking a success for the London Bullion Market Association's (LBMA) campaign to revise the plans.

Copper prices are likely to rebound against the backdrop of resilient infrastructure construction in China.

Copper lost some early gains and closed at $6,150/mt in LME on Tuesday. The SHFE October contract turned to the most liquid overnight. Copper prices are likely to rebound against the backdrop of resilient infrastructure construction in China. We expect LME copper to trade at $6,160-6,210/mt today with the SHFE 1810 contract at 49,300-49,800 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 60-100 yuan/mt.
Nickel rebound as a weakened US dollar and low stocks at SHFE warehouses accounted for the increase.

Given low-level inventory of nickel across LME warehouses, LME nickel rebounded to around the daily moving average to a high of $13,890/mt. Pressure was at the $13,900/mt level. LME inventory continued to shrink 372 mt to 251,466 mt. The SHFE 1811 contract received support at the 40-day moving average and gained over 1% from Monday to close at 113,240 yuan/mt. A weakened US dollar and low stocks at SHFE warehouses accounted for the increase. We expect the contract to trade at 112,500-114,000 yuan/mt with LME nickel hovering at $13,900/mt today. Spot prices are set at 112,000-114,500 yuan/mt.

Oil prices steady on falling U.S. crude stocks, Iran sanctions.

 Oil prices held steady on Wednesday, supported by a report of rising U.S. crude inventories as well as the introduction of sanctions against Iran. The U.S. government introduced a raft of new sanctions against Iran on Tuesday, targeting Iran's purchases of U.S. dollars - in which oil is traded - metals trading, coal, industrial software and its auto sector. November, Washington will also target Iran's petroleum sector. Beyond the sanctions, the oil market was focusing on the U.S. market, where the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday that crude inventories fell by 6 million barrels in the week to Aug. 3 to 407.2 million. U.S. fuel storage data is due to be released later on Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Shipments into the world's biggest importer of crude came in at 36.02 million tonnes last month, or 8.48 million bpd, up from 8.18 million bpd a year ago, and just up on June's 8.36 million bpd, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.

Tuesday, 7 August 2018



BULLION :-
Gold prices were steady early on Wednesday, after rising in the previous session, as the U.S. dollar softened against China's yuan and the euro. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.1 percent at 95.133. Asian shares rose on Wednesday on the back of firmer Wall Street earnings while expectations for increased Chinese stimulus helped take the edge off wider concerns about the worsening Sino-U.S. trade dispute. The United States will begin collecting 25 percent tariffs on another $16 billion in Chinese goods on Aug. 23, the U.S. Trade Representative's office said on Tuesday as it published a final tariff list targeting 279 imported product lines. Companies doing business with Iran will be barred from the United States, President Donald Trump said on Tuesday, as new U.S. sanctions took effect despite pleas from Washington's allies. U.S. job openings held near record highs in June amid a modest decline in hiring, pointing to a further tightening of labor market conditions, which economists hope will soon spur faster wage growth. The prospect of a "no-deal Brexit" appears to have grown after the European Union's negotiator rejected last month central elements of Prime Minister Theresa May's proposals for a new trade agreement. The European Parliament has agreed to ease tough new liquidity rules for banks trading gold, marking a success for the London Bullion Market Association's (LBMA) campaign to revise the plans. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw outflows in North America, Europe and Asia in July as a strong U.S. dollar helped weaken gold prices, the World Gold Council said on Tuesday. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest goldbacked exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.15 percent to 787.53 tonnes on Tuesday from 788.71 tonnes on Monday.

ENERGY :-
Oil prices were mixed on Wednesday amid reports that Iran’s exports fell after US re-imposed economic and crude sanctions against the world’s fifth biggest oil exporter, U.S.’s crude inventories also declined, API data showed. Iran’s oil exports dropped for the third consecutive month by 7% to 2.32 million barrel per day in July, the lowest level in four months, data from S&P Global Platts showed. Exports to China rose, on the other hand, to nearly 800,000 barrels per day in July and that to India also rose by 400,000 barrels per day from June to July. The data came after Washington announced sanctions against Iran on Tuesday. Crude sanctions will take effect in November this year, while other economic sanctions became effective on Tuesday. “The Iran sanctions have officially been cast. These are the most biting sanctions ever imposted, and in November they ratchet up to yet another level. Anyone doing business with Iran will not be doing business with the United States,” said U.S. President Donald Trump. Separately, the American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday that U.S. crude inventories decreased by 6 million barrels in the week to Aug 3 to 407.2 million, US official EIA data will be released today.

METALS :-

Base metals prices trading mostly higher on early Wednesday, as a rising yuan kept the dollar on the back foot and easing US-China trade war concerns supported sentiment. Copper prices were given a further boost on fears a wage dispute at the world’s largest copper mine could result in a strike if an agreement isn’t reached. Talks to resolve the despite between the Chile’s Escondida and the labor union were set to get underway Tuesday. China will release trade data later, with economists predicting exports maintained solid growth in July despite new tariffs on billions of dollars of shipments to the United States. Chile’s exports of lithium carbonate reached $85 million in July, more than double that of the same month the previous year, as demand and prices for the key component in electric vehicle batteries continues to rise. Zinc had the secondlargest speculative short position on the LME, accounting for 21 percent of open interest at Friday's close, according to estimates by Marex Spectron. LME aluminium dipped 0.3 percent to end at $2,038 a tonne. LME on-warrant inventories - those not earmarked for delivery - fell to the lowest level since September 2007, LME data showed on Tuesday.

Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.

Precious Metals

CS GOLD (OCT) OVERVIEW: TREND : SIDEWAYS RESIST

 2: 29730 RESIST
1: 29680 SUP
1: 29590 SUP
2: 29550

CS SILVER (SEP) OVERVIEW: TREND : SIDEWAYS RESIST

2: 38200 RESIST
 1: 38050 SUP
1: 37800 SUP
 2: 37700

Base Metals

CS COPPER (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : SIDEWAYS RESIST

 2: 421.00 RESIST
1: 418.00 SUP
 1: 413.00 SUP
2: 410.00

 CS NICKEL (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : BEARISH RESIST 

2: 963.00 RESIST
 1: 952.00 SUP
1: 922.00 SUP
2: 903.00

CS ZINC (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : BEARISH RESIST 
2: 182.00 RESIST
1: 180.50 SUP
1: 177.00 SUP
2: 175.50
CS LEAD (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : SIDEWAYS RESIST
 2: 148.00 RESIST
1: 146.50 SUP
1: 143.50 SUP
 2: 142.00
CS ALUMINIUM (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : BEARISH RESIST 
2: 141.50 RESIST
1: 140.50 SUP
1: 138.50 SUP
2: 137.50

Energies

CS CRUDE OIL (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : BEARISH RESIST
 2: 4860 RESIST
1: 4820 SUP
1: 4720 SUP
2: 4670

CS NATURAL GAS (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : BULLISH RESIST
 2: 198.50 RESIST
 1: 197.50 SUP
1: 195.00 SUP
2: 193.50

MCX CRUDE AUG on Monday as seen in the Daily chart opened at 4717 levels and made day high of 4812 levels. During this period crude came down to 4713 levels and finally closed at 4767 levels. Now, there are chances of further upside movement technically & fundamentally.

  •   Oil rises ahead of renewed U.S. sanctions against Iran.
  •   Much of the northern hemisphere has been gripped by extreme heat this summer, pushing up demand for industrial and residential cooling.

DAILY RECOMMENDATION: BUY MCX CRUDE AUG ABOVE 4770 LEVELS FOR TARGET OF 4800/4820 WITH SL 4720 OF LEVELS.



Gold gains slightly as lower price levels induce buying.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise benchmark lending rates, for the third time this year, at its next policy meet in September. Higher U.S. rates tend to boost the dollar, making greenback-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Global markets on Tuesday remained focused on developments on the trade war front while oil investors braced for impact from the first set of U.S. sanctions on Iran, set to take effect at 0401 GMT. Spot gold is poised to break a support at $1,206 per ounce, and fall towards the next support at $1,194, according to Reuters technical’s analyst Wang Tao.

Copper down with escalating US-China trade wars.

Copper fell to a low of $6,064/mt and closed at $6,105/mt in LME on Monday. The SHFE 1809 contract opened lower but recovered some losses later, closing at 49,330 yuan/mt. Shorts are likely to drag LME copper down to the $6,000/mt level with escalating US-China trade wars. We expect LME copper to trade at $6,070-6,130/mt today with the SHFE 1809 contract at 49,000-49,500 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are likely to sustain at 70-100 yuan/mt today.

Nickel fell down as low in demand and recovery in production.

 LME nickel reversed early losses, hitting a high of $13,725/mt and closing at $13,700/mt last night. The SHFE 1809 contract jumped past the 40-day moving average to a high of 112,780 yuan/mt and closed at 112,480 yuan/mt overnight. The shrinking LME and SHFE inventory gave some support to nickel prices. We expect LME nickel to hover around $13,600/mt today with the SHFE 1809 contract at 110,000-112,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 111,000-113,000 yuan/mt..

Oil rises ahead of renewed U.S. sanctions against Iran. 

Oil prices rose on Tuesday ahead of the introduction of U.S. sanctions against major crude exporter Iran. U.S. sanctions against Iran, which shipped out almost 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in July, are set to begin at 12:01 a.m. U.S. Eastern time (0401 GMT) on Tuesday. Many countries, including U.S. allies in Europe as well as China and India, oppose the introduction of new sanctions, but the U.S. government said it wants as many countries as possible to stop buying Iranian oil. The main oil market price drivers of recent months have been output levels by top producers Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, renewed Iran sanctions, the U.S.-China trade dispute, and unplanned supply disruptions. Some analysts warned that a global heat wave could also now affect oil demand. Much of the northern hemisphere has been gripped by extreme heat this summer, pushing up demand for industrial and residential cooling.

Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.



BULLION:-
Gold prices edged up on a steady US dollar early Tuesday, but expectations for further interest rate hikes in the United States supported the greenback and limited interest in the metal. Asian stocks were largely steady on Tuesday, with worries over the US-China trade conflict offsetting support from earnings-led gains on Wall Street. On Tuesday the pound held near an 11-month low against the dollar reached overnight on worries of a "hard" Brexit for Britain while simmering US-China trade tensions helped support the greenback. Chinese state media on Monday criticised US President Donald Trump's trade policies in an unusually personal attack, and sought to reassure investors anxious about China's economy as growth concerns battered its financial markets. China's exports are expected to have maintained solid growth in July despite new tariffs on billions of dollars of shipments to the United States, though the outlook has darkened as both sides raised the stakes in a trade conflict that has rattled financial markets. The Trump administration will aggressively enforce economic sanctions that it is re-imposing on Iran this week and expects the measures to have a significant impact on the Iranian economy, senior U.S. administration officials said on Monday. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.78% to788.71 tonnes on Monday from 794.90 tonnes on Friday.

ENERGY:-
Crude oil was largely stable in morning trade in Asia Tuesday after settling higher on Monday as supply-side indicators and geopolitical tensions kept a lid on volatility while inventors awaited fresh fundamental cues from weekly US inventory data. Crude prices have been volatile in recent sessions as the market reacted to an increased supply from OPEC and Russia while weighing the impact of a lack of Iranian barrels in the market due to US sanctions, analysts said. Discussion around possible waivers from the US for some importing countries was still floating around the market, resulting in uncertainty about the impact the Iranian sanctions will likely have. US sanctions on Iran's oil customers snap back November 4 and could remove up to 1 million b/d of oil from the global market. "Our goal is to get the import of Iranian oil to zero," a senior US administration official said Monday during a briefing with reporters. "We are not looking to grant exemptions or waivers but are glad to discuss requests and look at requests on a case-by-case basis." The official declined to say whether any limited waivers had been granted. "We don't disclose private deliberation with other governments over these things," he said.

METALS:-
Copper remains under pressure during early trading hours on Tuesday as an escalating trade dispute between Washington and Beijing stoking concerns over demand in China, the world’s biggest industrial metals consumer. On Friday China unveiled tariffs on 5,207 items imported from the United States, with the extra levies ranging from 5 percent to 25 percent, which analysts say could eventually undermine growth. However, even though items earmarked for the 25 percent tariff include copper ore and concentrates, the quantities involved are not significant for China. Miner BHP said on Monday that it had formally requested a period of government mediation with the union at its Escondida copper mine in Chile, the world’s largest, prompting the union to postpone the start of a strike approved by workers. Four more cities in northeast China’s Liaoning province have abandoned proposed alumina projects amid public environmental concerns, after Chaoyang last week scrapped plans to build the world’s biggest alumina refinery. The cancellations - announced by the cities of Fengcheng, Fuxin, Gaizhou and Huludao - mean projects designed to produce over 18.5 million tonnes of alumina will not go ahead as planned. Also indicative of robust demand is falling even.

Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.


Monday, 6 August 2018



Precious Metals

CS GOLD (OCT) OVERVIEW: TREND : BULLISH RESIST 
2: 29900 RESIST
1: 29800 SUP
1: 29600 SUP
2: 29500

 CS SILVER (SEP) OVERVIEW: TREND : SIDEWAYS RESIST 
2: 38400 RESIST
 1: 38200 SUP
1: 37850 SUP
2: 37650 

Base Metals


  • CS COPPER (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : SIDEWAYS RESIST

 2: 425.50 RESIST
 1: 421.50 SUP
1: 416.00 SUP
 2: 412.50


  • CS NICKEL (AUG) OVERVIEW:  TREND : BEARISH RESIST

 2: 938.50 RESIST
1: 929.50 SUP
1: 910.00 SUP
 2: 900.00


  • CS ZINC (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : SIDEWAYS RESIST 

2: 185.50 RESIST
 1: 184.00 SUP
 1: 177.00 SUP
2: 175.50

  •  CS LEAD (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : BEARISH RESIST

 2: 149.50 RESIST
 1: 148.00 SUP
1: 144.50 SUP
2: 143.00


  • CS ALUMINIUM (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : BEARISH RESIST 

2: 141.50 RESIST
1: 140.50 SUP
1: 138.50 SUP
2: 137.50

Energies


  • CS CRUDE OIL (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : BEARISH RESIST 

2: 4750 RESIST
1: 4690 SUP
1: 4620 SUP
2: 4580

  •  CS NATURAL GAS (AUG) OVERVIEW: TREND : BULLISH RESIST

 2: 200.00 RESIST
1: 197.50 SUP
1: 193.00 SUP
2: 191.00

Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.



Gold extends rally from 17-mth low, stronger dollar caps gains.

Gold prices inched higher on Monday, extending their recovery from a 17-month low, amid lingering worries over the U.S.-China trade conflict, while a stronger U.S. dollar capped the safe havens gains. Gold prices rebounded on Friday from a 17-month low of $1,204 per ounce as dollar slipped after data showed U.S. job growth slowed in July. The dollar also weakened against the yuan on Friday after the Chinese central bank sought to stabilize its currency. greenback, however, regained footing on Monday and strengthened against major peers. China proposed retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods on Friday, further escalating a bitter trade conflict, after the Trump administration sought to ratchet up pressure for trade concessions by proposing a higher 25-percent tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.

Copper prices to rebound given the low global inventory and the risk of a strike at Escondida copper mine.
Copper came off from a high of $6,230/mt and closed at $6,176/mt in LME on Friday. Copper surged up in MCX Friday market and made a high of 422.40 and close at 419.05. Despite uncertain developments in the US-China trade disputes, we see possibility for copper prices to rebound given the low global inventory and the risk of a strike at Escondida copper mine. LME copper is likely to trade at $6,130-6,180/mt today
Nickel fell down as low in demand and recovery in production.
 LME nickel remained its upward trend last Friday night and touched a high of $13,560/mt with resistance at the five-day moving average. Open interests increased 2,662 lots to 242,000 lots with LME inventory shrinking 792 mt to 253,278 mt. As short exited, Nickel made a high of 928.70 and it maintain its strong support of 900.

Oil prices rise after Saudi output dips,U.S. drilling stalls.

Oil prices rose on Monday after Saudi crude production registered a surprising dip in July and as American shale drilling appeared to plateau. U.S. energy companies last week cut oil rigs for a second time in the past three weeks as the rate of growth has slowed over the past couple of months. Drillers cut two oil rigs in the week to Aug. 3, bringing the total count down to 859, Baker Hughes energy services firm said on Friday. U.S. shale oil drillers posted disappointing quarterly results in recent weeks, hit by rising operating costs, hedging losses and a fall in crude prices away from 2018 highs reached between May and July. the United States, top crude exporter Saudi Arabia pumped around 10.29 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in July, two OPEC sources said on Friday, down about 200,000 bpd from a month earlier. Saudi Arabia halted temporarily oil shipments through the lane on July 25 after attacks on two oil tankers by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi movement.

Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.