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Sunday, 9 September 2018



BULLION:-

Gold held on to a small loss from the previous session on Monday, amid expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September and fears of escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. U.S. jobs growth accelerated in August, with wages notching their largest annual increase in nine years, strengthening views the economy was so far weathering the Trump administration’s escalating trade war with China. The stronger-than-expected payrolls data cemented expectations that the U.S. Fed will raise interest rates in September, in what would be its third hike this year. The Federal Reserve should keep raising U.S. interest rates until mid-2019, and only then needs to take a decision on when it ought to stop, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan suggested on Friday. U.S. President Donald Trump warned on Friday he was ready to slap tariffs on virtually all Chinese imports into the United States, threatening duties on another $267 billion of goods on top of $200 billion in imports primed for levies in coming days. Central banks will be in focus with the European Central Bank and Bank of England both meeting this week. The ECB is expected to signal it is ready to start tapering bond purchases, but President Draghi is likely to sound cautious after a run of mediocre to softening euro zone data. Hedge funds and money managers increased their bearish stances in COMEX gold and silver contracts to the biggest on record in the holiday-shortened week to Sept. 4, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed on Friday

METALS:-

London copper was trading steady on Monday morning after it registered its second weekly loss as an intensifying trade war between the United States and top metals consumer China raised concerns over demand. For the week, LME and Shanghai copper are down 1.7 percent. U.S. President Donald Trump has said he is prepared to quickly ramp up the trade war with China and has told aides he is ready to impose fresh tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports as soon as a public comment period on the plan ends. China will be forced to retaliate if the United States implements any new tariff measures, China’s commerce ministry warned on Thursday. Road access to MMG Ltd’s Las Bambas copper mine in Peru, which was blocked by protesters last week, has been restored and company logistics are operating normally, the company said late on Wednesday. European customers will avoid deals with Russia’s United Company Rusal, under U.S. sanctions, when the industry meets in Berlin next week to seal 2019 metal supply agreements, three sources familiar with the discussions said. On-warrant stocks of copper available to the market in LMEregistered warehouses rose by 850 tonnes to 147,450 tonnes but are still down from more than 234,000 tonnes in mid-August, signalling a tighter market. Stockpiles in Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) warehouses have fallen to 136,051 tonnes from more than 300,000 tonnes in April.

ENERGY:-

Oil prices rose on Monday as US drilling for new production stalled and as the market eyed tighter conditions once Washington's sanctions against Iran's crude exports kick in from November. US energy companies cut two oil rigs last week, bringing the total count to 860, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday. The US rig count has stagnated since May, after staging a recovery since 2016, which followed a steep slump the previous year amid plummeting crude prices. Outside the United States, new US sanctions against Iran's crude exports from November were helping push up prices. Several major Iran customers like India, Japan and South Korea were already cutting back on Iran crude. While Washington exerts pressure on other countries to fall into line and also cut imports from Iran, it is also urging other major producers to raise their output in order not to create too strong a price spike. US Energy Secretary Rick Perry will meet counterparts from Saudi Arabia and Russia on Monday and Thursday, respectively, as the Trump administration seeks the world's biggest exporter and producer to keep output up. One key question going forward is how demand develops amid the trade dispute between the United States and China, as well as general emerging market weakness.



Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.


Thursday, 6 September 2018



BULLION:

Gold trading steady above $1200/Oz on Friday as the dollar fell against the yen on fears that US President Donald Trump would take up trade issues with Japan as the markets braced for another round of U.S. tarriffs on China. The dollar extended losses against the yen on Friday after CNBC television reported on Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump told a Wall Street Journal columnist he might take on trade issues with Japan. Another big worry for investors was the end of a public consultation period over trade, after which U.S. President Donald Trump could impose tariffs on an additional $200 billion of Chinese goods. China’s commerce ministry warned that the country would retaliate against any new tariff measures.. Trump had said on Wednesday that the United States was not yet ready to come to an agreement with China. Investors also awaited news from U.S.-Canada talks about revamping the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). A few stubborn issues stood in the way of a deal, including dairy, protection for media companies, and how to solve future trade disputes. Markets will be closely watching a U.S. employment report due on Friday for clues on the pace of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, the ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls increased by 163,000 jobs last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private payrolls increasing by 190,000 jobs last month. Emerging markets have been hit by financial crises in Argentina and Turkey. In Indonesia, the central bank has intervened in recent weeks to stem the rupiah’s slide.

METALS:-

London copper slid on Friday with the market facing a second week of losses on concerns about demand, as a trade war between the United States and top metals consumer China intensifies. Copper has risen for the past two sessions. Relatively positive economic data in Europe helped boost sentiment in the market. U.S. President Donald Trump has said he is prepared to quickly ramp up the trade war with China and has told aides he is ready to impose tariffs on $200 billion more on Chinese imports as soon as a public comment period on the plan ends. China will be forced to retaliate if the United States implements any new tariff measures, China’s commerce ministry warned on Thursday. Road access to MMG Ltd’s Las Bambas copper mine in Peru, which was blocked by protesters last week, has been restored and company logistics are operating normally, the company said late on Wednesday. European customers will avoid deals with Russia’s United Company Rusal, under U.S. sanctions, when the industry meets in Berlin next week to seal 2019 metal supply agreements

ENERGY:-


Oil trading flat on Friday after it declined on Thursday, with US prices at their lowest settlement in more than two weeks, pressured by concerns over a potential decline in global demand on the back of the U.S. trade dispute with China and economic woes in emerging markets. Price pressures also included sizable weekly gains in U.S. stockpiles of gasoline and distillates, which include heating oil, outweighing support from a hefty decline in domestic crude inventories as well as ongoing expectations for tighter crude supplies tied to U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil that begin in early November. Trade tensions have also been a drag on energy this week as the threat of an economic slowdown due to a new tariffs has weighed on commodities broadly. The Energy Information Administration reported Thursday that domestic crude supplies fell by 4.3 million barrels for the week ended Aug. 31. That was larger than the 2.5 million-barrel fall expected by analysts polled by reuters and the decrease of 1.2 million barrels reported by the American Petroleum Institute Wednesday. Supply data were released a day later than usual due to Monday’s Labor Day holiday. Gasoline stockpiles rose 1.8 million barrels for the week, while distillate stockpiles added 3.1 million barrels, according to the EIA. Reuters survey forecast a supply decline of 1.5 million barrels for gasoline, but distillates were expected to be unchanged.



Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.

Wednesday, 5 September 2018



BULLION:-

Gold on Thursday held on to gains from the previous session, when it rose 0.5 percent, as the dollar remained weak amid a looming deadline in the U.S.-China trade conflict. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was down 0.3 percent at 94.949. The greenback slipped on Wednesday after a report that Germany would be ready to accept a less detailed agreement on the UK’s future economic and trade ties with the EU in a bid to get a Brexit deal done. That boosted the pound and the euro. Meanwhile, trade concerns continued to keep investors nervous, with a deadline looming in the U.S.-China trade dispute and a refusal by Canada to bow to key U.S. demands in its trade talks with Washington. The United States and Canada resumed talks about revamping the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Canada insisted there was room to salvage the pact despite few signs a deal was close. U.S. President Donald Trump said talks with Canada were coming along. Emerging market currencies remained weak, on fears export-oriented economies would be caught in the crossfire of any escalating trade conflict. The emerging market crisis could boost gold’s appeal as a safe haven asset as people might buy the yellow metal as a hedge against inflation. India’s gold imports more than doubled in August to hit their highest level in 15 months as lower prices prompted manufacturers to replenish inventory for a jewellery exhibition, provisional data from metals consultancy GFMS showed.

METALS:-

Copper trading steady on Thursday after rising on Wednesday after five straight days of losses as a dollar rally paused, but gains were firmly capped by persistent fears over escalating trade tensions between the United States and top metals consumer China. A public comment period on the possibility of fresh U.S. tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese goods ends on Thursday, with expectations that the additional levies will be imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. The dollar has benefited from these tensions, though it slipped on Wednesday, off a two week high hit in the previous session, making dollar-priced metals less costly for non-U.S. investors. Alcoa’s alumina production has likely been hit by a four-week strike at its Western Australian operations, the Australian Workers’ Union said, raising the prospect of a widening supply deficit in the key aluminium-making ingredient. The most active steel rebar future on the Shanghai Futures Exchange notched up its ninth day of losses out of the past 11 sessions as worries lingered about slowing demand in the world’s top producer.

ENERGY:-

Oil prices fell on Thursday as the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a draw of 1.17 million barrels of United States crude oil inventories for the week ending September 1, compared to analyst expectations that this week would see a draw in crude oil inventories of 1.29 million barrels. Other analysts had anticipated a 2.9 million barrel draw. Last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a surprise build of 38,000 barrels of crude oil. The API reported a build in gasoline inventories for week ending September 1 in the amount of 1 million barrels. Analysts predicted a draw of 81,000 barrels. Wednesday’s falling prices—the lowest of the week, in fact—were largely the result of tropical storm Gordon that ripped through the Gulf of Mexico without much disruption to energy infrastructure. Despite the fact that Gordon did claim at least one life, it managed to miss nearly every oil and gas operation in the GoM. Also weighing on prices is Iran’s persistence in finding future markets for its oil come November when US sanctions against Tehran go into full effect. On Wednesday, Tehran reported that Europe was looking to open bank accounts in Europe for Iran to deposit oil revenues and secure Iranian oil exports. US crude oil production as estimated by the Energy Information Administration was unchanged for the week at 11.0 million bpd for the week ending August 24. Distillate inventories were also up this week—by 1.8 million barrels, compared to an expected build of 742,000 barrels. Inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma site increased this week by 613,000 barrels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration report on crude oil inventories is due to be released on Thursday at 8:30 PM IST.




Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.
Gold review: Greeenback remains the focal point. 

The metal's biggest nemesis - the US dollar - picked up a bid yesterday, possibly due to a rise in the 10-year treasury yield to a three-week high of 2.90 percent. The USD exchange rate, as represented by the dollar index, clocked a 14-day high of 95.74 yesterday, and was last seen trading at 95.29. The pullback from the highs seen yesterday has likely helped the yellow metal recover from $1,190 to $1,194. The data, due for release this Friday, is expected to show the average hourly earnings rose 2.8 percent year-on-year in August, following a 2.7 percent rise in July. 

Market worries over US-Sino trade conflicts and a stronger US dollar accounted for the losses.

As the US dollar gained on support from strong US ISM manufacturing data, the SHFE 1811 contract lost 650 yuan/mt to close at 46,940 yuan/mt. LME copper slumped to test support at the $5,800/mt level, and dipped to approach the Bollinger lower band. Market worries over US-Sino trade conflicts and a stronger US dollar accounted for the losses. With potential fresh tariffs from the US on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, longs should remain cautious when they enter the market today. Spot premiums are likely at 150-200 yuan/mt today.

Market concerns over a trade war and a surge in supplies also weighed on the contract. 

LME nickel slumped to a low of $12,375/mt as the US dollar gained. It closed at $12,490/mt and LME stock lost 510 mt to 237,984 mt. The SHFE 1811 contract received support at the 102,000 yuan/mt level after it tumbled to a low of 102,010 yuan/mt as shorts added. Market concerns over a trade war and a surge in supplies also weighed on the contract. We expect LME nickel to hover weakly around $12,500/mt, and the SHFE contract at 102,000-103,500 yuan/mt today. Spot prices are set at 102,500-108,000 yuan/mt.

Oil dips as U.S. storm threat eases; Iran sanctions loom. 

 Oil prices fell on Wednesday, partly reversing a strong jump from the previous day, as the impact of a tropical storm on U.S. Gulf coast production was not as strong as initially expected. Prices jumped the previous day as dozens of U.S. oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were shut in anticipation of tropical storm Gordon hitting the region. But the storm was shifting eastward late on Tuesday, reducing its threat to producers on the western side of the Gulf and most Gulf Coast refineries. Innes, head of trading for Asia/Pacific at futures brokerage OANDA, said many crude futures traders were "caught long and wrong over the past 24 hours due to tropical storm buying frenzy", adding that "prices pulled back considerably as the magnitude of the storm suggests production losses will be limited."


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.

Tuesday, 4 September 2018



BULLION:-

Gold on Wednesday held near one-week lows touched in the previous session, as global trade tensions and emerging market concerns boosted demand for the U.S dollar, undermining the metal’s safe haven status. Emerging markets stocks and currencies were under added pressure on concerns about inflation in Turkey and after data showed South Africa had slumped into recession in the second quarter. U.S. President Donald Trump could follow through on plans to impose levies on $200 billion more of Chinese imports after a public comment period on his proposed new tariffs on Chinese goods is set to end on Thursday. US-Canada trade talks were expected to resume on Wednesday after the last round ended on Friday with no deal to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Trump has told Congress he would sign a bilateral trade pact with Mexico. Gold has lost about 8.5 percent this year amid rising U.S. interest rates, trade disputes and the Turkish currency crisis, with investors parking their money in the dollar. US Treasury yields rose to three week highs on Tuesday after data showed that U.S. manufacturing activity accelerated to a more than 14-year high in August, and on heavy corporate debt supply. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 1.09 percent to 746.92 tonnes on Tuesday from Friday. ndia raised gold holdings by 6.8 tonnes to 573.1 tonnes in 2018 July, data from International Monetary Fund showed.

METALS:-

Shanghai copper hit its lowest in more than a year overnight and was down for a fifth straight day in early trade on Wednesday, tracking a 2.6 percent drop in London copper overnight as U.S.-China trade tensions continue to weigh on metals prices. Global miner BHP said on Wednesday it would spend $35.2 million to buy a 6.1 percent stake in SolGold PLC, the majority owner and operator of the promising Cascabel copper-gold project in Ecuador. A company owned by Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov's holding company said on Tuesday it had started construction of a massive mining and metallurgical plant at the Udokan copper deposit in a remote region in eastern Siberia. Some warehouse firms want the London Metal Exchange to change its rules for delivering material so as to allow longer queues and boost revenues undermined by falling stocks. A vote by striking workers at Alcoa's giant west Australian operations will close on Thursday, with the union anticipating a strong "no" vote that could prolong the four-week old strike. Nickel hit its weakest since January on Tuesday, leading London metals lower as concerns over rising trade tensions between China and the United States benefited the dollar. Prices are “weighed down by an increase in nickel ore inventory at China and rising stainless steel inventory. The city of Binzhou in eastern China’s Shandong province, home to top aluminium producer China Hongqiao Group, is planning five new projects to support development of a high-end aluminium industry, according to a local government document.

ENERGY:-

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, partly reversing a strong jump from the previous day, as the impact of a tropical storm on U.S. Gulf coast production was not as strong as initially expected. Prices jumped the previous day as dozens of U.S. oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were shut in anticipation of tropical storm Gordon hitting the region. But the storm was shifting eastward late on Tuesday, reducing its threat to producers on the western side of the Gulf and most Gulf Coast refineries. There was also a typhoon hitting Japan's east coast overnight, with some damage to oil refineries in the Osaka region, although operators said operations were not significantly affected. Prices also hit by caution on the risks to oil demand if turmoil in emerging markets starts hitting economic growth. Emerging markets are a key driver of global oil demand growth, but several of them - especially Turkey and Argentina but also Indonesia and South Africa - have seen their currencies and stock markets come under pressure in recent months amid inflation, a strong U.S.-dollar and escalating global trade disputes.




Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.

Monday, 3 September 2018


Gold inches down as trade worries keep dollar firm.

Gold inched down on Tuesday as the dollar remained firm near a one-week high on the back of intensifying global trade tensions, but analysts said growing emerging market worries could benefit the metal. Spot gold was down 0.1 per cent at $1,199.40 an ounce at 0049 GMT. US gold futures were down 0.1 per cent at $1,206 an ounce. Markets are nervous about the escalating trade conflict between the United States and China, after US President Donald Trump said last week that he wanted to move ahead on a plan to impose tariffs on Chinese imports worth $200 billion. 

Pressure from shorts mounted as open interests across all SHFE copper contracts rose. 

Pressure from shorts mounted as open interests across all SHFE copper contracts rose 8,354 lot to 611,000 lots overnight. Pessimistic sentiment over macro economy will weigh on copper prices in the near run. The SHFE 1811 contract settled 300 yuan/mt lower at 47,860 yuan/mt. In the spot market, sellers held premiums firm, as traders accounted for most transactions. Spot premiums are seen at 130-170 yuan/mt today.

Large amount of Norilsk nickel entered the domestic market last Friday while downstream demand rose slightly. 

LME nickel slowed its decline by 0.12%, hovered around the daily moving average and closed at $12,795/mt. We expect it to consolidate around $12,750/mt with the SHFE 1811 contract trading at 104,000-105,500 yuan/mt. Pressure will remain in the short run after large amounts of Norilsk nickel entered the domestic market. Spot prices are likely at 104,500-109,000 yuan/mt.

Oil prices rise as Gulf oil rigs evacuated ahead of hurricane. 

 U.S. oil prices rose on Tuesday, breaking past $70 per barrel, after two Gulf of Mexico oil platforms were evacuated in preparation for a hurricane. APC.N said on Monday it had evacuated and shut production at two oil platforms in the northern Gulf of Mexico ahead of the approach of Gordon, which is expected to come ashore as a hurricane. This came as India allowed state refiners to import Iranian oil if Tehran arranges and insures tankers. International shippers have stopped loading Iranian oil as U.S. financial sanctions against Tehran prevent them from insuring its cargoes. Mirroring a step by China, where buyers are shifting nearly all their Iranian oil imports to vessels owned by National Iranian Tanker Co (NITC), this means that Asia's two biggest oil importers are making plans to continue Iran purchases despite pressure by Washington to cut orders. said Brent was also pressured by emerging market turmoil and the strong dollar, which makes crude imports for countries using other currencies more expensive.


Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.


BULLION:-

Gold prices traded sideways during early trades on Tuesday, in the previous session also it closed flat amid thin trade with US and Canadian financial markets closed for their respective Labor Day holidays. On a wider perspective, gold remains depressed amid US interest rate outlook and is not seen as a safe haven asset, to protect from trade wars, Brexit concerns and emerging-market jitters. With no major economic reports out Monday due to the U.S. holiday, investors looked forward to the publication of the August nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. The consensus forecast is for the creation of 191,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.9%. With expectations pointing to another solid reading for the U.S. labor market, the report is not likely to move market expectations for the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by a quarter point at the next policy meeting on September 25-26. Fed fund futures currently put the probability of an additional increase in December at just under 70%, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Higher interest rates tend to weigh on demand for gold, which doesn’t bear interest, in favor of yield-bearing investments. Growing turbulence in Argentina once again focused global attention on emerging markets. On Monday, Argentine President Mauricio Macri announced new taxes on exports and steep cuts to government spending in what he termed "emergency" measures to balance next year's budget.

METALS:-

London metal prices steadied on Tuesday, but a trade dispute between China and the United States chilled factory activity in August and tempered appetite for metals. Other ShFE metals were also weaker, with nickel , zinc and tin all down around 1 percent. Manufacturing activity in China took a hit from weak orders in August, surveys showed, a sign firms are feeling the pinch from the intensifying trade war between the Sino U.S. trade war that could derail global growth. Chilean state miner Codelco halted the operations of three out of four furnaces at its Ventanas copper foundry on Monday morning after high levels of sulphur dioxide were detected, it said in a statement. U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to impose 25 percent tariffs on $200 billion of additional Chinese goods as soon as this Friday. Nickel sank to its lowest in more than seven months on Monday, weighing on nickel, mainly used to make stainless steel, was another fall in construction steel rebar prices in Shanghai after they posted their weakest weekly performance since late March. LME lead was the biggest gainer, rising 1.2 percent to $2,103 a tonne as inventories continued to fall. On-warrant LME stocks fell by 1,050 tonnes to 59,050, the lowest since June 2013, data showed on Monday.

ENERGY:-

US oil prices edged up on Tuesday, rising back past $70 per barrel, after two Gulf of Mexico oil platforms were evacuated in preparation for a hurricane. Anadarko Petroleum Corp said on Monday it had evacuated and shut production at two oil platforms in the northern Gulf of Mexico ahead of the approach of Gordon, which is expected to come ashore as a hurricane. International Brent crude futures, by contrast, lost ground, trading at $78.10 per barrel, down 5 cents from their last close. This came as India allowed state refiners to import Iranian oil if Tehran arranges and insures tankers. Many international shippers have stopped loading Iranian oil as U.S. financial sanctions against Tehran prevents them from insuring its cargoes. Mirroring a step by China, where buyers are shifting nearly all their Iranian oil imports to vessels owned by National Iranian Tanker Co (NITC), this means that Asia’s two biggest oil importers are making plans to continue Iran purchases despite pressure by Washington to cut orders. Russia's crude and condensate production averaged 11.21 million b/d in August, dipping 8,000 b/d from July, when the country cranked up production significantly, according to preliminary data released Sunday by the Central Dispatching Unit, the energy ministry's statistics arm.



Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.