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Sunday, 30 September 2018


BULLION:-
 Gold prices dipped in the morning session, with the dollar holding steady after marking a near three-week high in the previous session in the wake of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s plans last week for multiple interest rate hikes by 2020. Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,189.22 at the time of writing. The metal fell 0.8 percent in September, marking its sixth straight monthly decline and longest monthly losing streak since January 1997. On Friday, gold touched its lowest since Aug. 17 at $1,180.34 an ounce. U.S. gold futures were down 0.3 percent at $1,193.0 an ounce. The dollar index was steady against a basket of major currencies, having touched its highest since Sept. 10 in the previous session. The Fed raised interest rates last week and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in 2020. U.S. consumer spending increased steadily in August, supporting expectations of solid economic growth in the third quarter, while a measure of underlying inflation remained at the Fed’s 2 percent target for a fourth straight month. China will cut import tariffs on textile products and metals, including steel products, to 8.4 percent from 11.5 percent, effective Nov. 1, the finance ministry said on Sunday.  

METALS:-
 London metal prices eased on Monday amid evidence that the Sino-U.S. trade dispute impacted China’s manufacturing activity last month and as a week-long holiday got underway in the country. Growth in China’s manufacturing sector sputtered in September as both external and domestic demand weakened, two surveys showed on Sunday, raising the pressure on policymakers as U.S. tariffs appear to be inflicting a heavier toll on the Chinese economy. A private survey showed growth in the factory sector stalled after 15 months of expansion, with export orders falling the fastest in over two years, while an official survey confirmed a further manufacturing weakening. London Metal Exchange copper had eased 0.3 percent to $6,242 a tonne by 0219 GMT, following a gain of 1.2 percent on Friday. Copper prices climbed 4.7 percent in September, the largest monthly gain in a year when prices have dropped a total of nearly 14 percent.  

ENERGY:-
Brent crude oil prices rose to their highest since November 2014 on Monday ahead of U.S. sanctions against Iran, the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), that kick in next month. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 32 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $73.57 a barrel. WTI prices were supported by a report on Friday of a stagnant rig count in the United States, which points to a slowdown in U.S. crude production, which now rivals top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia. Brent was pushed up by looming sanctions against Iran, which will start targeting its oil sector from Nov. 4. In a sign that the financial market is positioning itself for further price rises, hedge funds increased their bullish wagers on U.S. crude in the week to Sept. 25, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed on Friday, increasing futures and options positions in New York and London by 3,728 contracts to 346,566 during the period.  



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Saturday, 29 September 2018

BULLION:-

Gold hit a fresh six-week low on Friday as the dollar firmed after upbeat U.S. economic data supported the Federal Reserve's resolve for steady interest rate hikes, putting the metal on track for its longest monthly losing streak since January 1997. The dollar gained against its peers on Friday as data showed U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second quarter at its fastest pace in nearly four years. Another report showed durable goods rose 4.5 percent in August, rebounding from a revised 1.2 percent drop the month before. USD/ short-term outlook is bearish for gold as the dollar may see some upside due to an ongoing trade war between China and the U.S. and the Federal Reserve interest rate hike outlook, according to Argonaut Securities analyst Helen Lau. The Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in 2020.  


ENERGY:-

Oil prices steadied on Friday as U.S. sanctions on Tehran squeezed Iranian crude exports, tightening supply even as other key exporters increased production. "The fall in Iranian production is set to intensify once the second round of U.S. sanctions come into effect in November," said Abhishek Kumar, senior analyst at Interfax Europe Ltd. A new round of U.S. sanctions on Iran, the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, kick in on Nov. 4. Washington is demanding that buyers of Iranian oil cut imports to zero to force Tehran to negotiate a new nuclear agreement and to curb its influence in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is expected to add extra oil to the market over the next couple of months to offset the drop in Iranian production. sources familiar with OPEC policy told Reuters Saudi Arabia and other producers had discussed a possible production increase of about 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) among OPEC and non-OPEC producers. 


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Thursday, 27 September 2018



BULLION:-

Gold prices held close early Friday to near six-week lows hit in the previous session, as the dollar firmed after upbeat U.S. economic data supported the Federal Reserve’s resolve for steady interest rate hikes over the next year. Spot gold was up 0.1 percent to $1,183.58 at the time of writing. On Thursday, the metal fell about 1 percent and touched its lowest since Aug. 17 at $1,181.61 an ounce. Spot gold is down about 1.3 percent for the week, on track for its fourth weekly decline in five. The dollar stood tall against its peers on Friday, and hovered near a nine-month high versus the yen. U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second quarter at its fastest pace in nearly four years as previously estimated, putting the economy on track to hit the Trump administration’s goal of 3 percent annual growth. The U.S. economy does not face a large chance of a recession in the next two years and the Fed plans to keep gradually raising interest rates, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday.  

METALS:-

Shanghai aluminium prices dropped for a fourth session on Friday and were on course for their steepest monthly drop since March after China decided not impose blanket cuts on industrial output in 28 northern cities this winter. The production cuts are to be determined by local authorities, which the market expects to mean less restrictions on aluminium supply. Shanghai aluminium fell as much as 1.5 percent to 14,275 yuan ($2,073.02) a tonne, the lowest since July 23. The metal is heading for a 4.3 percent drop in September. London Metal Exchange aluminium nudged up 0.1 percent to $2,031.50 a tonne. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.5 to $6,214 a tonne, at the time of writing, snapping four straight sessions of declines. It has fallen 2.6 percent this week, putting it on course for its steepest weekly fall in six, although it is also heading for a 3.7 percent gain over September, which would be its best month since December 2017.  

ENERGY:-

Oil prices inched up on Friday, with investors trying to gauge the potential impact on supply from looming U.S. sanctions on Iran’s crude exports. The most-active Brent crude futures contract, for DecemberLCOZ8, had risen 18 cents, or 0.22 percent, to $81.56 per barrel at the time of writing. That was close to a four-year high of $82.55 struck on Tuesday. With the expiration of the Brent November futures contract later on Friday, the front-month contract will become the December contract. U.S futures were up 21 cents, or 0.29 percent, at $72.33 per barrel, on track for a weekly gain. The sanctions kick in on Nov. 4, with Washington asking buyers of Iranian oil to cut imports to zero to force Tehran to negotiate a new nuclear agreement and to curb its influence in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is expected to quietly add extra oil to the market over the next couple of months to offset the drop in Iranian production, but is worried it might need to limit output next year to balance global supply and demand as the United States pumps more crude.  




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BULLION:-

Gold prices edged up early on Thursday, supported as investors looked for bargains after the metal fell to a two-week low in the previous session following a U.S. interest rate hike. Spot gold had risen 0.2 percent to $1,196.21 an ounce at the time of writing. On Wednesday, the metal touched its lowest since Sept. 11 at $1,190.40 an ounce. U.S. gold futures were up 0.1 percent at $1,200.40 an ounce. Gold is sensitive to higher interest rates because they tend to boost the dollar, making bullion more expensive for buyers with other currencies. The dollar steadied against its peers early on Thursday as the small boost it received from the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hike faded, with a decline in U.S. Treasury yields reducing support for the greenback. In a statement that marked the end of the era of “accommodative” monetary policy, the Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday and left intact its plans to steadily tighten monetary policy, as it forecast that the U.S. economy would enjoy at least three more years of growth. 

METALS:-

The prices of base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange were mostly lower at the close of trading on Wednesday, with zinc being the only metal to trade positively amid continued bearish sentiment across the base metals complex. Copper fell for a third straight session on Wednesday as the dollar firmed ahead on the direction of U.S. interest rates hike. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange edged down 0.4 percent to $6,264 per tonne at the time of writing. Persistent concerns over tit-for-tat trade tariffs between China and the United States are denting demand for risky assets, such as metals. The union at Alcoa’s aluminium operations in the state of Western Australia said it was meeting the company again on Wednesday to try to resolve a strike that has lasted more than six weeks, after the firm last week revised an earlier offer. Stocks in LME-monitored warehouses fell below a million tonnes for the first time since March 2008 on Wednesday, at 999,925 tonnes.

ENERGY:-


Oil prices rose by 1 percent on Thursday as investors focused on the prospect of tighter markets due to U.S. sanctions against major crude exporter Iran, which are set to be implemented in November. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $72.41 a barrel, up 84 cents, or 1.2 percent from their last settlement. At its 2018 peak, Iran exported around 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, equivalent to 3 percent of global consumption. Shipping data shows Iran September exports fell to around 2 million bpd as buyers around the world bow to U.S. pressure and cut imports. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has little spare capacity to make up for an expected shortfall in Iranian exports. Reflecting expectations of lower supply from the Middle East, Oman crude futures on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange touched their highest in four years on Wednesday, briefly jumping above $90 a barrel. While global oil markets tighten, supply in the United States is ample, thanks to rising output.  



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Tuesday, 25 September 2018


BULLION:-

Gold prices nudged down early Wednesday on a firmer dollar, as investors waited for details of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting that should give clues whether policymakers will raise interest rates for the third time this year. Spot gold XAU= was down 0.1 percent at $1,200.18 at the time of writing. Investors await details from the two-day Federal Reserve meeting that began on Tuesday, with the U.S. central bank expected to raise benchmark interest rates and shed light on the path for future rate hikes. Higher U.S. interest rate typically pressure gold, since it costs to store and insure, but does not pay interest. U.S. consumer confidence surged to an 18-year high in September as households grew more upbeat about the labour market, pointing to sustained strength in the economy despite an increasingly bitter trade dispute between the United States and China. U.S. President Donald Trump’s top trade official said on Tuesday that changing China’s economic policies to become more market-oriented “is not going to be easy” even with tariffs now in place on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods.  

METALS:-

London copper fell for a third session in a row on Wednesday ahead of a widely expected U.S. interest rate hike and persistent worries over an escalating U.S.-China trade war. Fed funds rates futures implied traders are fully pricing in a rate hike on Wednesday, with an 85 percent chance the Fed will raise rates again in December. The Federal Reserve has already raised rates twice this year. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was down 0.6 percent at $6,277.50 a tonne at the time of writing. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most-traded November copper gained 0.6 percent to 50,500 yuan ($7,350) a tonne. With Wednesday’s rate hike expected, investor focus will be on the Fed’s policy statement and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference following the meeting. 

ENERGY:-

Brent oil edged further away from a four-year high on Wednesday and U.S. crude fell, after the U.S. said it would ensure crude markets are well supplied before sanctions are re-imposed on Iran and as President Donald Trump criticized high prices. Brent crude futures were down 43 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $81.44 a barrel at the time of writing, after gaining nearly 1 percent the previous session. Earlier on Tuesday, Brent hit its highest since November 2014 at $82.55 per barrel. U.S. crude futures were down 40 cents, or 0.6 percent at $71.88 a barrel. They rose 0.3 percent on Tuesday to close at their highest level since mid-July. However, Brent is on course for its fifth consecutive quarterly increase, the longest such stretch for the global benchmark since early 2007, when a six-quarter run led to a record-high of $147.50 a barrel.  



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Monday, 24 September 2018


Gold Prices Look to Fed Policy Meeting for Range Break Catalyst.-Gold prices continued to echo swings in the US Dollar, with an inconclusive Monday session for the latter echoed in the former. On balance, lasting direction may not emerge until after Wednesday’s FOMC monetary policy announcement. In shaping the outlook for prevailing yields and the greenback, it will speak directly to the relative appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets epitomized by the yellow metal. Gold prices remain confined to a choppy range below the August 28 high at 1214.30. A daily close above that and falling trend resistance at 1220.00 targets opens the door for another challenge of the 1235.24-41.64 area. Alternatively, a break below the range floor at 1183.28 – marked by the August 24 low– targets the swing bottom at 1160.37. 

The US is on the cusp of implementing tariffs of 10% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods- 
 While LME copper came off from earlier highs, it still stood above the 60-day moving average overnight. Global visible inventories extended their declines last week with SHFE stocks down 23,500 mt to 111,000 mt. Such low inventories could provide some support to copper prices. The SHFE 1811 contract is likely to pull back in the short term after it broke through the upper Bollinger band on Friday. Spot premiums are seen at 80-130 yuan/mt. 

 Growing supplies amid an open import arbitrage window.-LME nickel plunged to $12,780/mt overnight before it hovered around $12,825/mt. We expect a weak performance for the SHFE 1811 contract today given its weak LME counterpart and growing supplies amid an open import arbitrage window. LME nickel is likely to hover around $12,850/mt today; the SHFE 1811 contract is likely to trade at 103,000-104,500 yuan/mt with spot prices at 103,500-110,000 yuan/mt. 

Oil rises to within 4-year high as producers resist output increase to offset Iran sanctions.- Crude Oil benchmark Brent rose for a second day on Tuesday, remaining within range of a four-year high reached during the previous session. Looming U.S. sanctions against Iran and the unwillingness or inability of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and top oil producer Russia to raise output to offset the loss of Iranian supply have spurred prices higher. The United States from Nov. 4 will target Iran's oil exports with sanctions, and Washington is putting pressure on governments and companies around the world to fall in line and cut purchases from Tehran. While Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and Iran on Tuesday said they were determined to develop payment mechanisms to continue trading despite the sanctions by the United States, most analysts expect Washington's actions to knock between 1 million and 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil supplies out of markets. U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded that OPEC and Russia increase their supplies to make up for the expected fall in Iranian exports. Iran is the third-largest producer in OPEC. 



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Sunday, 23 September 2018


BULLION:-

Gold prices headed lower on Friday as a stronger dollar dented demand for the precious metal, but it was still on track for its first weekly climb in four as investors reentered their attention on the Federal Reserve. The fall in dollar this week came as safe-haven demand for the U.S. currency ebbed amid continued relief that fresh U.S. and Chinese tariffs on reciprocal imports were less harsh than originally feared. On Monday, the U.S. slapped tariffs of 10% on $200 billion in Chinese goods, before they rise to 25% by the end of 2018, rather than an outright 25%.The precious metal has dropped more than 10% from a peak in April as escalating U.S.-China trade dispute and rising U.S. interest rates were cited as catalysts for the selling in gold.

METALS:-

As longs aggressively added their positions, the SHFE 1811 contract jumped past 50,000 yuan/mt, a psychologically-significant level, to an intraday high of 50,020 yuan/mt before it edged down to close at 49,740 yuan/mt. Open interest for the October contract shrank 8,024 lots while that for January-March contracts grew 14,198 lots. The spread between October and November contract exceeded 300 yuan/mt. On the technical front, MACD red line extended further, suggesting an open upward track for the contract. The SHFE 1811 contract climbed past the 20-day moving average to 105,220 yuan/mt on a substantial buildup of long positions. The contract then reversed little gains and closed at 104,870 yuan/mt. On the technical front, KDJ lines expanded upwards and MACD red line lengthened.


ENERGY:-

Crude oil markets were all over the place on Friday, based upon a lot of different moving pieces. Not the least of which would have been a searching US dollar. The market does want to go higher but the US dollar strengthening based upon the noise and the United Kingdom has put more bearish pressure on this. Overall, I think that the market will be paying attention to quadruple witching during the session as well, so quite frankly I would pay more attention to the longer-term trend of going higher. The US dollar is the counterbalance, so pay attention to that. The $77.50 level underneath will be supported as well, but at this point I think that oil traders have decided that they want to go higher. If we break above the $80 level, it’s likely that we will then go to the $82.50 level next. Expect volatility regardless of what happens, so be very cautious about your position size going into this next couple of days.




Investment & trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647.