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Wednesday, 13 March 2019



BULLION - Bullion counter may trade with mixed bias Gold held close to two-week highs on Thursday as the U.S. dollar eased after British lawmakers rejected a no-deal Brexit in any scenario and as tepid U.S. inflation data reduced the chance of future U.S. interest rate hikes. The British parliament on Wednesday rejected leaving the European Union without a deal, further weakening Prime Minister Theresa May and paving the way for a vote that could delay Brexit until at least the end of June. Gold can take support near 32050 and can recover towards 32250. Silver can take support near 38500 and can recover towards 38900. U.S. producer prices barely rose in February, resulting in the smallest annual increase in more than 1-1/2 years, in the latest sign of benign inflation that supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach to further interest rate hikes this year. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he was in no rush to complete a trade pact with China and insisted that any deal include protection for intellectual property, a major sticking point between the two sides during months of negotiations.

ENERGY- Crude oil may open on positive bias as it may test 4100 in MCX. Brent crude oil prices on Thursday hit their highest so far this year, pushed up by ongoing supply cuts led by OPEC and by U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and Iran. An unexpected dip in U.S. crude oil inventories and production also lifted prices, The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some nonaligned producers including Russia have been withholding oil supply since the start of the year to tighten global markets and prop up crude prices. In Venezuela, oil production and exports have been disrupted by a political and economic crisis that has caused massive blackouts and supply shortages, while Washington has barred U.S. companies from doing business with the Venezuelan government, including state-owned oil firm PDVSA. Natural gas may remain sideways as it can take support near 195 while taking facing resistance near 200 in MCX. U.S. natural gas futures settled higher on Wednesday on expectations that a federal report on Thursday will show a much higher-than-normal weekly withdrawal, deepening the storage deficit.

BASE METAL - Base metals prices may trade with sideways bias. Growth in China's industrial output fell to a 17-year low in the first two months of the year, pointing to further weakness in the world's second-biggest economy. But investment picked up speed as the government fast-tracked more road and rail projects, offering some relief for policymakers as they work to avert a sharper slowdown, data showed on Thursday. Copper may take support near 446 and can face resistance near 458 in MCX. Zinc can take support near 196 while facing resistance near 201. Zinc edged down from near eight-month highs on Thursday after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump chilled optimism over an imminent China trade deal, while tight supply of metal underpinned prices. LME zinc stocks have fallen to 58,950 tonnes, the lowest since October 2007, and down from around 250,000 tonnes as recently as August. In recent years, traders have been holding metal outside LME warehouses where storage is cheaper. 



Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 

For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Monday, 11 March 2019




BULLION - Bullion counter may witness some bounce back at lower levels as the dollar edged lower against major currencies following the U.S. retail sales data and a rally in the pound. U.S. retail sales rose 0.2 in January, surprising economists who had expected an unchanged result. Gold can take support near 31700 and can recover towards 32100. Silver can take support near 38000 and can recover towards 38700. Prime Minister Theresa May won legally binding Brexit assurances from the European Union on Monday in a last ditch attempt to sway rebellious British lawmakers who have threatened to vote down the deal again. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank does  not feel any hurryâ to change the level of interest rates again as it watches how a slowing global economy affects local conditions in the U.S. 

ENERGY- Crude oil may open on positive note as oil prices rose on Tuesday, lifted by output cuts led by producer group OPEC as well as healthy demand, and although analysts said economic headwinds posed downside risks to crude markets. Venezuela opposition-run congress on Monday declared a state of alarm over a five-day power blackout that has crippled the country oil exports and left millions of citizens scrambling to find food and water. The United States will drive global oil supply growth over the next five years, adding another 4 million barrels per day (bpd) to the country already booming output, the International Energy Agency said on Monday. U.S. crude oil output will rise nearly 2.8 million bpd, growing to 13.7 million bpd in 2024 from an average of just under 11 million bpd in 2018, the IEA said, making the United States by far the biggest oil producer in the world. Natural gas may remain sideways as it can take support near 192 while taking facing resistance near 196 in MCX. U.S. natural gas futures fell to a two-week low on Monday on forecasts for the weather to turn warmer over the next two weeks than previously expected. Meteorologists now project temperatures will remain near normal through late March. Last week, they were forecasting seasonal weather this week and cooler than normal temperatures next week.

BASE METAL - Base metals prices may trade with positive bias. London base metal prices rose across the board in early Asian trade on Tuesday, supported by a weaker dollar and tracking stock markets higher after the European Commission agreed to changes in a Brexit deal. Copper may take support near 445 and can recover towards 458 in MCX. China's automobile sales fell 13.8 percent year-onyear in February, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline in the world's largest auto market. Zinc can take support near 192 while facing resistance near 195. The global zinc market deficit narrowed to 28,000 tonnes in January from a revised deficit of 62,400 tonnes in December, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Lead can move in range of 143-146. Nickel can also test 920 while taking support near 900. Aluminum prices may trade in range of 142-144. Queues to take aluminum out of LME-approved warehouses owned by ISTIM UK in Port Klang, Malaysia rose to 229 days in February from 118 days in January and zero days in December.



Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 

For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com


DAILY NIFTY SMART MOVERS 
SCRIPTS PRICE VOLUME (IN 000�S) PRE. CLOSE CHANGE (%) CHANGE (Rs.)
Bharti Airtel 333.70 586.23 308.75 8.08 24.95
Edelweiss Financial 173.10 382.83 162.45 6.56 10.65
HPCL 263.70 873.44 249.55 5.67 14.15
Vodafone Idea 34.15 2953.63 32.40 5.40 1.75
BPCL 387.05 398.98 367.80 5.23 19.25


DAILY NIFTY TOP LAGGARDS

SCRIPTS PRICE VOLUME (000�S) PRE. CLOSE CHANGE (%) CHANGE (Rs.)
REC 134.20 612.09 143.10 -6.22 -8.90
HDFC Life Insurance 389.80 83.71 391.80 -0.51 -2.00
Tech Mahindra 807.80 57.54 811.20 -0.42 -3.40
TCS 2014.10 52.84 2022.30 -0.41 -8.20
HCL Tech. 1004.50 64.69 1008.45 -0.39 -3.95


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Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Sunday, 10 March 2019


BULLION - Bullion counter may extend its downside pressure amid bounce back in greenback, rise in US treasury yields and lack of safe haven demand. The ECB changed track on its tightening plan, pushing out the timing of its first post-crisis rate hike until 2020 at the earliest and offering banks a new round of cheap loans to help revive the euro zone economy. The U.S. Federal Reserve should lower its expectations for rate hikes even if its economic forecasts have not changed, because of signs of a slowdown in spending and other risks, Governor Lael Brainard stated last week. Gold can test 31600 while facing resistance near 32400 while silver (May) can dip towards 37500 while facing resistance near 38800. China�s gold reserves rose slightly to $79.498 billion in February from $79.319 billion at the end of January, as the central bank increased the total amount of gold reserves to 60.260 million fine troy ounces from 59.940 million troy ounces. U.S. President Donald Trump is open to additional talks with Pyongyang over denuclearization, his national security adviser stated, despite reports that North Korea is reactivating parts of its missile program. The Perth Mint's February sales of gold products fell to the lowest level since June last year, declining more than 37 percent from the previous month. The U.S. Mint sold 12,500 ounces of American Eagle gold coins in February, down 81.1 percent from the previous month, according to the latest data.

ENERGY- Crude oil prices may witness some profit booking at higher levels as increasing US production and global growth concerns can keep prices under pressure. Forecasts by two big U.S. producers outweighed recent OPEC-led efforts to rein in crude production. Chevron Corp and Exxon Mobil Corp released duelling Permian Basin projections pointing to big increases in shale oil production. China�s crude oil imports rose to the third-highest volume on record on a daily basis on increasing purchases by new private refineries. Crude oil can test 3800 while facing resistance near 4100. But on the supply side, prices have been receiving support this year from output cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Together with some nonaffiliated producers like Russia, the producer group has pledged to withhold around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply to tighten markets and prop up prices. China, the world�s biggest crude oil importer, took in 39.23 million tonnes of crude oil last month, the data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Natural gas counter may witness short covering at lower levels as it may take support near 185 and can recover towards 215 levels. Natural gas futures edged up recently as utilities pulled huge amounts of gas out of inventories to heat homes and businesses to deal with a frigid cold snap blanketing much of the country.

BASE METAL - In base metal counter prices can trade with negative bias as optimism over the ability of a potential U.S.-China trade deal and Chinese economic stimulus to push prices higher is fading. U.S. President Trump will reject a U.S.-China trade deal that is not perfect, but the United States would still keep working on an agreement, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated last week. Copper may test the support of 440 by facing resistance near 460. Copper can dip lower as rising inventories and a drop in the premium for directly available metal signalled easing supply squeeze. Copper Inventories in LME-registered warehouses rose to 120,075 tonnes from 116,872 tonnes last week, the lowest since 2008. Meanwhile Lead may dip towards 140 while facing resistance near 152. China imported 128,000 tonnes of refined lead last year, bringing the two-year cumulative total to 206,000 tonnes. The only precedent for this pace of import was 2009, when China soaked up 157,000 tonnes of refined lead. Aluminium can remain sideways as it can take support near 141 while facing resistance near 148. Rusal, the worldâ��s largest aluminium producer outside China stated that its business was back to normal after U.S. sanctions were lifted in January, and reiterated a positive outlook for the global aluminium market. It also stated that global aluminium demand is expected to rise by 3.7 percent in 2019 to 68 million tonnes. Zinc may dip lower towards 184 while facing resistance near 196. 



Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Thursday, 7 March 2019


BULLION - Bullion counter may trade sideways path as gold held steady on Friday as risk appetite faded after the European Central Bank cut its growth forecasts and launched an emergency round of policy stimulus, while a strong dollar capped gains ahead of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data. Gold can take support near 31800 while it can face resistance near 32200. Silver can take support near 37900 while facing resistance near 38300. The ECB changed track on its tightening plan on Thursday, pushing out the timing of its first post-crisis rate hike until 2020 at the earliest and offering banks a new round of cheap loans to help revive the euro zone economy. U.S. President Donald Trump is open to additional talks with Pyongyang over denuclearization, his national security adviser said on Thursday, despite reports that North Korea is reactivating parts of its missile program. China�s gold reserves rose slightly to $79.498 billion in February from $79.319 billion at the end of January, as the central bank increased the total amount of gold reserves to 60.260 million fine troy ounces from 59.940 million troy ounces.


ENERGY- Crude oil may open on negative note as oil prices fell on Friday after the European Central Bank (ECB) warned economic weakness would continue and as U.S. crude output and exports chase new records, undermining efforts by producer club OPEC to tighten global markets. Crude oil can test 3920 while facing resistance near 4000. Financial markets, including crude oil futures, took a hit after ECB President Mario Draghi said on Thursday the economy was in �a period of continued weakness and pervasive uncertainty�. Europe�s economic weakness comes as growth in Asia is also slowing down. On the supply side, prices have been receiving support this year from output cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Together with some non-affiliated producers like Russia, the producer group has pledged to withhold around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply to tighten markets and prop up prices. Natural gas may take support near 197 while taking facing resistance near 204 in MCX.



BASE METAL - Base metals prices may trade with sideways bias. China�s decision to increase its budget deficit ratio to 2.8 percent this year from 2.6 percent in 2018 is appropriate for the economy, and leaves room for policymakers to manoeuvre. Copper may take support near 450 while facing resistance near 458 in MCX .London copper prices were little changed on Friday with the market set for a weekly decline, as rising inventories and a drop in the premium for directly available metal signalled easing supply squeeze. Inventories in LME-registered warehouses rose to 120,075 tonnes from 116,872 tonnes on Wednesday, the lowest since 2008. Optimism over the ability of a potential U.S.-China trade deal and Chinese economic stimulus to push prices higher is fading. Zinc can test 191 while facing resistance near 195. Lead can dip further towards 145. Nickel can also test 915 while facing resistance near 930. Aluminum prices may trade in range of 143-145. Rusal, the world�s largest aluminium producer outside China, said on Thursday its business was back to normal after U.S. sanctions were lifted in January, and reiterated a positive outlook for the global aluminium market.



Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 

For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Wednesday, 6 March 2019

 

Market Update (Bullions)
Bullion counter may trade sideways to negative path as gold held steady on Thursday, supported by concerns over global growth as well as tepid equity markets, while a firm dollar curbed gains ahead of European Central Bank’s policy meeting due later in the day. The Organisation for Economic Co-Operation & Development cut forecasts again for the global economy in 2019 and 2020 as it warned that trade disputes and uncertainty over Brexit would hit world commerce and businesses. Gold can dip lower towards 31800 while it can face resistance near 32200. Silver can test 38000 while facing resistance near 38400. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that trade talks with China were moving along well and predicted either a “good deal” or no deal between the world’s two largest economies. Trump also said he would be very disappointed in North Korean leader Kim Jong Un if reports about rebuilding at a rocket launch site in North Korea were true

Market Update (Base Metals)
Base metals prices may trade with sideways to weak bias. Copper may test 450 while facing resistance near 460 in MCX. Chilean state-run miner Codelco will continue to develop its lithium assets, including committing $57 million for further exploration, Chile's mining minister told Reuters, even as progress has stagnated at its flagship projects. The premium of cash LME copper over the three-month contract stood at $31.50 a tonne on Wednesday, less than half the previous day's $70 a tonne in a sign of easing supply tightness. Zinc can test 195 while facing resistance near 198. Lead can dip further towards 146. Nickel can also test 935 while facing resistance near 960. Aluminum prices may trade in range of 143-145. Shanghai aluminium fell for the third straight day on Thursday to a near three-week low, due to rising inventories and Chinese demand concerns. China, the world's biggest consumer and producer of the metal, will report its February aluminium export figure on Friday. Shipments surged to a record high of 552,000 tonnes in January. Russia's Rusal, the world's largest aluminium producer outside China, said global aluminium demand is expected to rise by 3.7 percent in 2019 to 68 million tonnes as it posted a fourth-quarter adjusted net loss of $17 million.

Market Update (Energy)

Crude oil may open on positive note as oil edged up on Thursday amid ongoing OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions against exporters Venezuela and Iran, although prices were prevented from rising further by record U.S. crude output and rising commercial fuel inventories. Prices are being supported by efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other countries - a grouping known as ‘OPEC+’ - to withhold around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), a strategy designed to tighten markets. U.S. sanctions against the oil industries of OPEC members Iran and Venezuela have also had an impact, traders said. Venezuela’s state-run oil firm PDVSA this week declared a maritime emergency, citing trouble accessing tankers and personnel to export its oil amid the sanctions. Crude oil can test 4000 while taking support near 3930. U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose much more than expected last week, with inventories up by 7.1 million barrels to 452.93 million barrels EIA, according to a weekly report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. Natural gas may test 205 while taking support near 198 in MCX.


Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Tuesday, 5 March 2019


BULLION - Bullion counter may trade sideways path as gold hovered Gold held steady on Wednesday after recovering from more than five week lows in the previous session, drawing support from choppy equities, while a stronger dollar capped gains. Asian stocks clung to tight ranges on Wednesday, as investors awaited fresh directional cues from U.S.-China trade negotiations and a weaker Wall Street finish capped broader gains, while robust U.S. economic data supported the dollar. Gold can take support near 32100 while it can face resistance near 32400. Silver can test 38350 while facing resistance near 38700. Sales of new U.S. single-family homes rose to a seven-month high in December, but November's outsized jump was revised lower, pointing to continued weakness in the housing market. U.S. President Trump will reject any U.S.-China trade deal that is not perfect but that the United States will still keep working on an agreement, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a media interview. The Perth Mint's February sales of gold products fell to the lowest level since June last year, declining more than 37 percent from the previous month, it said on Tuesday.

ENERGY- Crude oil may open on negative note as oil prices fell more than 0.5 percent on Wednesday as bullish output forecasts by two big U.S. producers outweighed recent OPEC-led efforts to rein in crude production. Chevron Corp and Exxon Mobil Corp released duelling Permian Basin projections on Tuesday pointing to big increases in shale oil production. Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, also showed larger-than-expected U.S. crude stockpiles. Crude oil can test 3900 while facing resistance near 4000. U.S. crude inventories rose by 7.3 million barrels in the week ending March 1 to 451.5 million, compared with analystsâ�� expectations for an increase of 1.2 million barrels, API said. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 1.1 million barrels. Natural gas may test 206 while taking support near 200 in MCX. U.S. natural gas futures edged up to a five-week high on Tuesday as utilities pulled huge amounts of gas out of inventories to heat homes and businesses to deal with a frigid cold snap blanketing much of the country this week. 

BASE METAL - Base metals prices may trade with sideways to weak bias except Nickel. U.S. President Trump will reject a U.S.-China trade deal that is not perfect, but the United States would still keep working on an agreement, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a media interview. Pompeo had earlier said he thought the two sides were "on the cusp" of a deal to end their trade war, adding to positive signs about negotiations from both sides of the Pacific. Copper may test 455 while taking resistance near 465 in MCX. Zinc can test 195 while facing resistance near 199. Lead can trade on mixed path in range of 147-150. Nickel can also test 970 while taking support near 950. London nickel prices edged higher for a fourth straight session on Wednesday as low stock levels and recovering demand kept the metal used to make stainless steel at a six-month high. LME nickel inventories have fallen for 10 days in a row to under 200,000 tonnes. Shortages for a fourth year running and historically low stocks of zinc are likely to propel prices of the metal to $3,000 a tonne over coming months, while an end to the U.S.-China trade dispute could spur even more gains.

Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com


Monday, 4 March 2019


BULLION - Bullion counter may remain on weaker side as gold hovered on Tuesday near a five-week low touched in the previous session as rising U.S. Treasury yields boosted the dollar, making gold expensive for holders in other currencies. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Monday he thought the United States and China were â��on the cuspâ�� of a deal to end their trade war, adding to positive signs about negotiations from both sides of the Pacific. China has set its 2019 economic growth target at 6.0 to 6.5 percent, Premier Li Keqiang said in his annual work report on Tuesday, lower than last yearâ��s goal of around 6.5 percent. Gold can dip lower towards 32200 while facing resistance near 32600. Silver can test 38500 while facing resistance near 38850. Asian shares stepped back on Tuesday after China cut its economic growth target and pledged measures to support the economy amid growing challenges from rising debt and a dispute over trade and technology with the United States. 


ENERGY- Crude Oil- Crude oil may open on negative note as oil prices dipped on Tuesday amid tepid prospects for growth in fuel demand, but OPEC led efforts to cut output offered some support. And despite optimism that the United States and China will soon end their bitter trade disputes, oil demand growth has been slowing along with an economic slowdown especially in Europe and Asia. The OPECled supply cuts, as well as U.S. sanctions against its members Iran and Venezuela, come at the same time as U.S. crude output chases ever new records, rising by more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) since early 2018 and above 12 million bpd for the first time in February. Crude oil can test 3980 while facing resistance near 4050. Natural gas may test 205 while taking support near 198 in MCX. U.S. natural gas futures held near a five-week high on Monday on forecasts for the massive storage deficit to grow as utilities pull huge amounts of gas out of inventories to heat homes and businesses this week as brutally cold weather blankets much of the country. 



BASE METAL - Base metals prices may trade with sideways bias. China will cut billions of dollars in taxes and fees, increase infrastructure investment, and step up lending to small firms, Premier Li Keqiang said on Tuesday, as the world's second-largest economy looks set to slow further this year. Copper may test 466 while taking support near 458 in MCX. The amount of available copper stored in the London Metal Exchange's (LME) warehouse system fell to 21,600 tonnes last week, the lowest level since 2005. Zinc can test 195 while facing resistance near 199. Lead can trade on mixed path in range of 148-152. Nickel can also test 960 while taking support near 945. Nickel prices climbed to a six-month peak on Monday as expectations of a fourth consecutive year of supply deficit were reinforced by signs of robust demand from stainless steel mills in China. Data from the International Nickel Study Group shows the nickel market deficit at 46,000 tonnes in 2016, 115,000 tonnes in 2017 and 127,000 tonnes last year. Nickel stocks at 196,542 in LME-registered warehouses have nearly halved since the start of January last year, while cancelled warrants metal earmarked for delivery stand at 37 percent.


Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Thursday, 28 February 2019


BULLION - MCX Gold and Silver may note mixed trade in line with international market but bias remains on the downside. COMEX gold trades in a narrow range near $1315/oz after a 0.4% decline yesterday. Weighing on gold price is marginal gain in US dollar amid better than expected US economic data and no major cues from comments from Fed officials. US Q4 GDP growth slowed down from 3.4% to 2.6% but was slightly better than market expectations of 2.2% growth. Fed officials reaffirmed patient rate hike stance and end of bond reduction plan however there was no cues indicating further dovish tilt. ETF inflows also show weaker investor interest in gold. Gold holdings with SPDR ETF fell by 4.09 tonnes to 784.218 tonnes. Meanwhile, market players are eyeing geopolitical development and US-China trade talks. Tensions relating to US-North Korea rose as the two day summit ended abruptly. On other hand, no further escalation and reports of release of Indian air force pilot thawed concerns about India-Pakistan fight. On trade front, latest reports noted that US officials are preparing a final trade deal that President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping could sign in weeks. However, comments from US officials also indicated that more work needs to be done and the administration won't accept a deal that doesn't include significant "structural" changes to Chinese economy. Gold has been on a downtrend after failing to break the $1350/oz level and amid no fresh positive triggers however we expect the price to stabilize near $1310/oz levels as global economic and trade uncertainty will keep a floor to price. For the day, one should wait for higher levels to create short positions.

ENERGY- Crude Oil- MCX Crude oil may note mixed trade in line with international market but overall bias is on the upside. NYMEX crude trades above $57 per barrel after a 0.5% gain yesterday. Crude trades higher supported by sharp decline in US crude oil stocks, better than expected US economic data and OPEC�s stance to continue with production cuts despite US displeasure with higher price. Saudi Arabia has also indicated that they may extend production cuts into second half of 2019. Meanwhile, reports indicated higher compliance by OPEC members last month. As per JBC Energy, OPEC output fell by more than a half-million barrels in February. However, weighing on crude oil price are concerns about health of Chinese economy amid disappointing economic data. The US and global equity markets are also under pressure amid increased geopolitical uncertainty and as market players eye development relating to US-China trade talks. Also weighing on crude price is record high US crude production and reports that Canada has further reduced production cuts for the month of March amid signs of easing glut. Crude has recovered all the losses noted earlier this week and has moved back to recent highs however we still do not expect that price will break past the $58 per barrel. Hence, we recommend one to wait for corrective dips to consider fresh longs. Further cues will come from US economic data, development relating to US-China and US weekly rig activity report.

Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may note mixed trade in line with international market however bias may be on the
downside. NYMEX natural gas trades weaker near $2.8/mmBtu after a 0.5% gain yesterday. US EIA weekly report noted a 166 Bcf decline in US natural gas stocks which is more than 5-year average decline of 104 Bcf but less than market expectations of 174 Bcf decline. Also weighing on gas price is higher US gas production and nearing end of winter season. However, supporting price is forecast of cold weather in US which will keep heating demand high in the near term. Natural gas is consolidating in a range amid mixed cues as market players assess current high demand against nearing end of winter season. Natural gas may witness mixed trade but selling could be considered at higher levels as demand is unlikely to sustain. Further cues will come from US weather forecasts and US weekly rig activity repot.

BASE METAL - Most Base metals on LME trade lower today after noting mixed movement yesterday. LME Zinc was the best performer with 1.2% gains followed by 0.7% rise in Zinc prices. In other metals both Copper and Nickel ended nearly unchanged while Aluminium closed 0.6% lower.


Investment  trading in securities market is always subjected to market risks, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. CapitalStars Investment Adviser: SEBI Registration Number: INA000001647
 
For more details call on 9977499927 or visit our website www.capitalstars.com

Wednesday, 27 February 2019



BULLION - MCX Gold and Silver may note mixed trade in line with international market but general bias is on the downside. COMEX gold trades in a narrow range near $1320/oz after a 0.5% decline yesterday. Gold fell yesterday amid marginal gain in US dollar and amid no new takeaway from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell�s testimony. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the Fed will stop shrinking its $4 trillion balance sheet later this year in line with market expectations post last week�s FOMC minutes. The US dollar managed to see some gains yesterday as comments from US officials fuelled seeds of uncertainty in US-China trade deal. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said US issues with China are "too serious" to be resolved by promises of more purchases of US goods by Beijing. However, weighing on US dollar is mixed US economic data, Fed�s patient rate hike stance and easing concerns about Brexit amid prospect of a delay. Amid other factors, gold is supported by increased geopolitical tensions relating to India and Pakistan and concerns about Trump administration as Michael Cohen, the president's former attorney, claimed that President Donald Trump committed crimes while in office. ETF investors moved to sidelines awaiting more clarity on price direction. Gold has been on a corrective phase after failing to breach $1350/oz level and has now slipped below $1330/oz level and could see extended decline till $1315/oz. Easing worries about US-China and Brexit and no further shift in Fed�s stance will weigh on price.

ENERGY- Crude Oil- MCX Crude Oil may note mixed trade in line with international market but overall bias is on the upside. NYMEX crude trades mixed near $57 per barrel after a sharp 2.6% rally yesterday. Crude has witnessed mixed trade in last few days as market players react to comments from US and Saudi Arabia. Crude plunged as US President expressed concerns about higher price and called upon OPEC to stabilize prices. Crude recovered as Saudi Arabia retorted Wednesday by saying that the twenty-five countries are taking a very slow and measured approach and that their production cut approach was appropriate. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia also signaled OPEC may continue production cuts in the second half of this year. Crude rose also as EIA weekly report noted an unexpected 8.647 million barrels decline in US crude oil stocks amid higher refinery demand and sharp plunge in weekly imports. EIA however noted that US crude production has inched up to a fresh record high level of 12.1 million barrels per day. Amid other factors, rally in US and global equity market came to a halt amid skepticism about US-China trade deal, mixed US economic data, slowdown in Chinese economy and increased geopolitical tensions. Risk sentiment weakened also as Michael Cohen, the president's former attorney, said that President Donald Trump committed crimes while in office. Crude may witness choppy trade amid mixed factors however the sharp decline in US crude stocks and OPEC�s insistence on continuing with production cuts will continue to support price.

Natural Gas- MCX Natural gas may note some gains tracking cues from international exchange but upside is limited.
NYMEX natural gas trades higher near $2.8/mmBtu after a minor 0.1% gain yesterday. Natural gas trades higher amid positioning ahead of inventory report. US EIA weekly report today is expected to note a 174 Bcf decline in US natural gas stocks as against 5-year average decline of 104 Bcf. A bigger than average decline in stocks will widen the deficit in US market. Also supporting price is forecast of cold weather in large parts of US in early March which will keep heating demand high. However, weighing on price is subdued demand expectation with nearing end of winter season and higher US gas production. Natural gas may trade sideways to positive ahead of inventory report however the momentum will continue only if EIA notes a bigger than expected decline in stocks.

BASE METAL - Base metals on LME trade sideways to lower today after a positive close yesterday. LME Lead was the best performer with 2.1% gains followed by nearly 0.7% rise in Nickel prices and 0.6% gains in Aluminium prices. In other metals both Copper and Zinc ended with 0.2% gains.



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